Vladimir Putin has made his decision. Reports flowing from Moscow and analyses by Western intelligence agencies indicate that the two-month period following the elections in Russia will be a time of increased military and political activity. The Kremlin no longer hides its intentions, which is confirmed by the recent statements of press secretary Dmitry Peskov, interpreted by experts as an attempt to long-term prepare Russian society for a protracted conflict.
Strategy to divide the West
Russia is not limiting itself solely to the front in the Donbas. Information from various analytical centers suggests that Moscow is testing NATO's boundaries, attempting to conduct operations below the threshold of open war. The goal is to incite friction within the North Atlantic Alliance. This strategy aims to exhaust European capitals and test the unity of the bloc in the face of a threat that increasingly extends beyond the borders of Ukraine.
Donald Trump, although he raises hopes in some circles, may be in for a cold shower. Russian plans do not provide for concessions; on the contrary, they assume a further offensive, regardless of who sits in the Oval Office in Washington. This is a hard lesson for those who believed in a quick agreement over the heads of the Ukrainians.
Poland in the crosshairs of disinformation
In February 2026, we witnessed disinformation attacks targeting the Polish authorities, including Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Narratives about Poland allegedly being drawn into an open conflict with Russia are a constant element of the Russian psychological operation. Military experts warn that these actions are intended to cause internal destabilization ahead of the elections in Poland. Moscow's goal is to incite panic and weaken support for continued aid to Ukraine.
There is no confirmed data regarding specific troop movements on the front, however, Gen. Petr Pavel and other commanders point to a dynamic in which Russia is trying to impose its own pace of escalation. Moscow is taking advantage of the fact that NATO has foreseen most of these scenarios, but mere foresight does not always translate into effectively stopping an opponent who is ready for a long march.
Is NATO ready?
The situation remains tense. Russia is striving for an escalation that is intended to force concessions on the Kremlin's terms. Many indications are that the coming weeks will be a test for the resilience of Western societies. No official dates have been given for when strikes might occur, however, the signals coming from the Russian war machine are unambiguous.
The question remains about the real strength of the Russian army after months of fighting. Will an economy shifted to war mode withstand the pressure, or is this just a show of force calculated for psychological effect? We will know the answer to this question as soon as the outlines of the Kremlin's current strategy translate into concrete operational decisions. For now, we are dealing with a war of nerves, in which every careless word can be used as a pretext for further aggression.
Sources
- "Putin is preparing an escalation, also outside of Ukraine". Russia reacts to reports - Interia Wydarzenia
- Putin has made his decision. Trump may be disappointed - Rzeczpospolita
- Expert reveals the intentions of the Kremlin spokesperson. "Preparing society" - Fakt
- Russia is preparing for escalation. Does it want to divide the West? - RMF24
- Russia is testing NATO's boundaries. "Putin is striving for escalation below the threshold of open war" - Bankier.pl
- Expert on possible Russian escalation. "NATO has foreseen these scenarios" - Wiadomości Onet
- Attack on Tusk in Hungary. "Poland will declare war on Russia" - WP Wiadomości
- How long can Russia wage war? The general indicates a date and warns. "They will want to influence the elections in Poland" - Rzeczpospolita
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