WSE and central banks: how are JSW and WIG20 faring?

The Warsaw Stock Exchange is showing resilience to decisions by the Fed and the MPC, pushing the WIG20 index to historic highs, although official reports from August 2026 did not provide a specific point level for this record or the exact share price of Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa. At the same time, JSW is still struggling with losses, waiting for a breakthrough in financial results, while central banks in Washington and Warsaw keep investors in uncertainty regarding the scale of interest rate cuts or hikes. Neither the Federal Reserve nor the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) disclosed in the cited communications the exact number of basis points by which the cost of money was adjusted, forcing the market to trade in the shadow of guesswork.

The lack of precise numerical data in published press reports, however, did not prevent the generation of a powerful wave of optimism on the main WSE index. Fears that the restrictive stance of American bankers would stifle the economic climate were pushed aside, and institutional investors began to price in a completely different macroeconomic scenario. The market consensus broke. Instead of the predicted cooling, the trading floor on Książęca Street entered a phase of selective appreciation, in which capital stopped blindly mimicking the behavior of foreign stock exchanges.

WSE resilience: WIG20 at a historic high

The WIG20 index closed the session at an absolute, historic high, which was confirmed by official market communications on August 3, 2026. This unprecedented result was achieved under conditions of growing pressure from the Federal Reserve, which throughout the summer scared investors with the scenario of further interest rate hikes in the United States. Contrary to pessimistic forecasts, macroeconomic data from the US arriving in the second half of August painted a completely different picture of the situation, preventing the realization of the black scenario of a sharp stifling of the bull market. The WSE simply did not bow to the policymakers from Washington.

Mid-September 2026 brought confirmation of this relative strength. Warsaw stock market indicators were once again a step away from their highs, demonstrating complete indifference to the hawkish signals flowing from core markets. Foreign capital and pension funds stopped selling off shares from the basket of the twenty largest companies at every mention of possible monetary policy tightening across the ocean. Hard facts showed that American interest rate policy does not have to automatically mean an outflow of liquidity from Central and Eastern Europe, provided that domestic fundamentals remain stable.

However, this bull market has its dark side and a highly selective character. The record reading of the WIG20 does not reflect an equal enrichment of all listed companies, but is a resultant of the strength of the banking sector, which benefits from high net interest margin levels. Heavy industry, represented among others by mining companies, found itself at a completely different pole of the business cycle. Buying the broad index based solely on a headline about a historic record is, in current conditions, a path to significant portfolio disappointments.

The catch is that none of the official stock exchange communications provide a target valuation of the index in points or the volume level that accompanied the setting of this high. Investors operate in an information vacuum, where historic records are a media fact, but lack support in the form of precise price-to-earnings ratios for the entire basket. If the Federal Reserve actually decides on an unexpected upward move in the autumn, the liquidity cushion supporting Polish blue chips may melt much faster than optimists assume.

JSW condition: Company still under pressure from losses

The situation at Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa is a complete contradiction of the euphoria prevailing on the main index of the Warsaw trading floor. At the end of September 2026, news circulated in the market that the coal giant was still deeply drowning in losses, and its operational condition was raising serious concerns among shareholders. Although industry media are openly speculating about an upcoming breakthrough in stock prices, the available source materials did not reveal the exact net loss in millions of zlotys or the current stock price expressed in groszy. These key figures were withheld or suspended until the official publication of the full periodic report.

Institutional investors found themselves in a bind. The lack of stabilization in the cash flow of the company from Jastrzębie-Zdrój means that every purchase of its securities involves extreme volatility risk. Two opposing narratives dominate the corridors of the WSE. Some analysts expect that the published financial results of the giant could turn out to be a positive surprise, clearing the field for a strong rebound toward multi-month highs. Conversely, pessimists point out that the lack of control over fixed costs and wage pressure could deepen the hole in the balance sheet, pushing the valuation to historic lows.

The fundamental problem with JSW shares boils down to the fact that this company lives in a completely different cycle than the rest of the Warsaw trading floor. While the financial and technology sectors are able to generate positive flows in inflationary conditions, the mining industry struggles with declining margins and the need to maintain expensive fixed assets. For retail investors, trading these assets at the end of the third quarter of 2026 resembles a coin toss. If the announced breakthrough does not materialize in the hard numbers of the financial report, the disappointment of the supply side will sweep away any attempts to defend existing technical supports.

MPC decisions and the reaction of key companies on the Warsaw floor

The beginning of February 2026 brought clear evidence of how much influence the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) have on the Warsaw trading floor. The MPC meeting became arguably the topic of the day on the WSE, forcing immediate reshuffling in the portfolios of the largest institutional players. Three entities were primarily at the center of market attention: Santander Bank Polska, CD Projekt, and Asseco Poland. Each of these companies represents a completely different sensitivity to the cost of money in the economy, which exposed the mechanisms governing the valuations of individual sectors.

The impact of the central bank's decision on Santander Bank Polska is direct and stems directly from the mathematics of the interest margin. Maintaining interest rates at a certain level – or raising them – allows banks to generate high revenues from variable-rate loans, while the cost of deposits adjusts with a significant delay. Every hawkish communication from the MPC means for a lender like Santander the maintenance of high profitability of the loan portfolio, which immediately attracts capital looking for stable dividends.

The economic mechanism looks completely different in the case of technology companies such as CD Projekt and Asseco Poland. The reaction of their share prices to MPC decisions did not result from simple crowd emotions, but from fundamental principles of enterprise valuation using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. In this model, the level of the domestic risk-free rate directly determines the discount rate used to estimate the present value of future profits. The higher the cost of money imposed by the central bank, the more the present value of profits that the game producer is to achieve only in a few years at the time of the next title's release decreases.

In the case of Asseco Poland, the matter additionally touches on the costs of servicing corporate debt and the willingness of clients to take out loans for multi-year IT system implementations. High rates in Poland limit the investment budgets of the private and public sectors, which directly translates into the tender pipeline of technology providers. Stock market investors perfectly understand this relationship: when the MPC maintains tough monetary conditions, growth companies and software providers pay for it with lower valuation multiples. Dismissing fluctuations in CD Projekt and Asseco shares as "emotional panic" is ignoring the basic rules of capital valuation.

However, in the cited agency dispatches from January and February 2026, key data were not revealed: there was no precise reading of the main NBP reference rate and the scale of a possible cut or hike expressed in basis points. The market had to react to the general tone of the Council's communication, which created perfect conditions for short-term speculation at the expense of long-term investors.

Banking sector in Poland: PKO BP results and macroeconomic convergence

In mid-May 2026, the largest bank in Poland, PKO BP, published a financial report in which it showed clear, positive net profits. Importantly, the behavior of the leader of the Polish financial market differed diametrically from the patterns presented by other credit institutions listed on the WSE. Official press releases did not specify the exact amount of PKO BP's profit expressed in zlotys, noting only the fact of generating a positive result, which stood out from the trends prevailing in the group of smaller competitors. The operational scale and a powerful deposit base allowed PKO BP to neutralize the cost pressure that smaller entities in the sector could not handle.

The end of July brought a culmination of risk factors. The publication of quarterly results of WSE banks coincided with financial reports of the largest corporate giants from Wall Street and a massive influx of macroeconomic data from the American and European economies. This unprecedented accumulation of information forced investors to simultaneously assess the condition of the Polish consumer and global supply chains. The Warsaw banking sector, led by PKO BP and Santander, however, proved its dominant position, becoming an anchor stabilizing the WIG20 index during moments of greatest fluctuations on foreign stock exchanges.

Differences in the results of individual banks prove that the domestic financial sector has entered a phase of strong polarization. The ability to generate high profits under the restrictive monetary policy of the MPC has become a privilege of the largest players, while smaller entities must fight to maintain their client base with rising interest costs. For the entire WIG20 index, this is an ambiguous situation: the dependence of the Warsaw trading floor on the condition of one banking giant means that any scratch on PKO BP's balance sheet can immediately push the main index from its historic highs.

The InPost puzzle: Valuation and delisting outside the WSE floor

In the debate about the condition of Polish technology and logistics companies, the topic of InPost regularly returns, although editorial precision requires an immediate correction of a common error. Shares of the Paczkomaty network operator are not listed on the WSE Main Market in Warsaw, but on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange. Even though the business's operational center and main cash-generating market remain in Poland, the valuation of Rafał Brzoska's company is subject directly to Dutch law and the moods of international institutional investors operating in the eurozone.

In mid-January 2026, "Dziennik Gazeta Prawna" revealed that InPost is facing a real prospect of leaving the stock exchange again and passing into the hands of private funds. The article posed an open question about the real value of these shares, however, the authors of the publication did not provide a specific amount in euros or zlotys that would have to be offered to minority shareholders as part of a tender offer. The decision on a possible delisting from Euronext Amsterdam constitutes a direct commentary on the global policy of central banks.

The mechanism is clear. Companies with a dynamic growth profile, which includes InPost, need cheap debt capital for infrastructure expansion in countries such as the UK or France. When the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve maintain a high cost of money, the market valuations of logistics operators are subject to constant multiple compression. Public markets then cease to serve as a cheap source of financing for development, and the rigor of quarterly reporting becomes a burden for management boards.

For investors from Poland who follow the fortunes of InPost on the Amsterdam stock exchange, the buyout scenario means a collision with a brutal market valuation. If the main shareholders decide to take the company off the trading floor, the price in the tender offer may not take into account the long-term potential of the logistics network, closing the path to profits for those who believed in the business's foreign expansion. Leaving the stock exchange in conditions of high interest rates is a classic move by private equity funds, hunting for undervalued infrastructure assets out of sight of small savers.

Realities of the trading floor: The rift between profits and industry

A summary of the balance of power in the market in 2026 leaves no illusions about the structure of the current bull market. On one hand, investors observe the WIG20 at a historic high, driven by PKO BP's profits and resilience to the Fed's hawkish rhetoric. On the other hand, a drama is playing out on the trading floor involving Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa, which is drowning in losses, waiting for an uncertain financial breakthrough. This rift shows that the Warsaw trading floor is not a monolith, and the base index itself has become an instrument masking the deep problems of manufacturing and mining companies.

MPC decisions have ceased to be treated as one-off impulses, becoming a filter selecting business models. While Santander draws profits from the interest margin, the valuations of CD Projekt and Asseco Poland must endure the pressure of the mathematical discount imposed by expensive money. In this environment, passive investing in the entire WIG20 basket carries a hidden ballast. The winners of this phase of the market take almost the entire risk premium, leaving the rest of the issuers at the mercy of capricious periodic reports and as-yet-undisclosed net loss levels.

What this means for you

Keeping capital in the broad WIG20 index currently gives exposure to historic highs, but also means direct risk associated with the unresolved problems of JSW and the dominance of the banking sector.

Individual investors should absolutely analyze the revenue structure of companies in terms of their sensitivity to NBP and Fed interest rates. Entities such as PKO BP or Santander benefit from expensive money, while technology companies like CD Projekt and Asseco are subject to the pressure of higher discount rates. In the case of JSW, the key to any decisions must be insight into hard data on the size of the net loss in the upcoming report, not media speculation about an alleged breakthrough.

Questions and answers

On which stock exchange is InPost listed and what does a possible delisting mean?

InPost is listed on the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange, not on the Warsaw WSE. Reports of a possible departure from the trading floor mean the probability of announcing a tender offer for shares by private investors, however, in the available materials from January 2026, the proposed buyout price was not provided.

Which bank in Poland stood out with its results from the rest of the sector in May 2026?

This entity was PKO BP, the largest bank in Poland, which presented positive profits in its financial reports, behaving differently than other competitors from the WSE banking sector. The exact amount of profit generated in numerical terms was not disclosed in official sources.

Why do MPC decisions translate into the share prices of CD Projekt and Asseco Poland?

The valuation of technology and gamedev companies is based on discounted cash flow (DCF) models. MPC decisions shape the risk-free rate, which directly affects the discount rate: a higher cost of money lowers the present value of profits projected for the coming years. In the case of Asseco, there is also the issue of corporate clients' budgets for IT projects.

What is the financial situation of JSW at the end of September 2026?

Jastrzębska Spółka Węglowa continues to record negative financial results and is drowning in losses, waiting for the publication of a periodic report which, according to the media, may bring a market surprise. The sources did not provide a precise net loss amount or the current share price of the company.

Sources

Article prepared with the help of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above. The Wiadomości PRO newsroom is responsible for this publication.