NBP Interest Rates and Inflation in 2026: What About Cuts Below 4 Percent?

The prospect of interest rate cuts below 4% in 2026 has receded after inflation delivered an upside surprise and GDP growth accelerated. Although the market periodically hoped for monetary policy easing, the NBP kept rates unchanged in the face of new projections for 2026–2028. The main reference rate did not drop to the eagerly anticipated ceiling because the Monetary Policy Council, chaired by Governor Adam Glapiński, concluded that a faster economic pace combined with an unforeseen spike in price indices definitively rules out lowering the cost of money.

Borrowers waiting for relief in their monthly installments must set their calculators aside. The central bank on Świętokrzyska Street in Warsaw sent a clear message: as long as gross domestic product growth shows vigor and the inflation path exhibits a tendency toward unexpected surges, curbing demand pressure remains the priority. Investors who placed early bets on cheap capital have collided with harsh macroeconomic reality.

In Brief

Expectations for NBP interest rates to fall below the 4% threshold in 2026 have been completely revised by monetary policymakers.
Analytical projections published by the National Bank of Poland in March and July set inflation and GDP growth ranges stretching out to 2028, offering no basis for reducing the cost of debt.
The temporary May stabilization in readings, during which prices stopped rising, turned out to be a misleading post-crisis signal for the market.
Instead of rate hikes, investors began pricing in easing in July; however, the August economic acceleration and price index jump definitively closed the window for any discussion about cuts.

The Question of the 4% Threshold: How Expectations of the MPC Shifted

It all began on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, when the Monetary Policy Council gathered for its first decision-making meeting of the new calendar year. Across the financial press, including analyses in DGP, a fundamental question quickly emerged: will NBP interest rates fall below 4% as early as January? Part of the banking community hoped the MPC would choose to open the year with a strong move and launch an easing cycle, offering breathing room to the credit market.

The policymakers' response was uncompromising. No cuts were implemented. Monetary policy parameters remained unchanged, and the sub-4% level proved to be merely a media forecast out of step with the central bank's intentions. The Council made it clear that it would not yield to pressure from borrowers or investors positioning portfolios for a rapid drop in WIBOR or WIRON rates. The January 2026 meeting established a hierarchy of goals. Protecting the purchasing power of the currency proved indisputably more important than providing relief to mortgage holders.

Market analysts' calculations had assumed that the beginning of the year would bring sufficient evidence that inflation was under control. Nothing of the sort happened. For MPC members, including decision-makers such as Henryk Wnorowski, Wiesław Janczyk, and Ireneusz Dąbrowski, prematurely easing credit conditions would carry too great a risk of reigniting inflationary processes across the services and consumer goods sectors.

The lack of a rate cut decision in January served as the first serious warning for the banking sector. Anyone who had assumed a sharp drop in net interest margins resulting from rates dipping below the 4% threshold in their financial models had to make hasty revisions. Instead of entering an era of cheap money, the market received confirmation of prolonged monetary restriction.

New NBP Projection: The Inflation and GDP Path for 2026–2028

In the Polish monetary framework, calculations prepared by the NBP's Economic Analysis and Research Department carry the decisive voice when determining the cost of capital. It is precisely these analytical models that form the backbone of discussions during MPC meetings. In 2026, central bank experts unveiled key projections twice, each time dampening the enthusiasm of loose-policy proponents.

The first pivotal turning point arrived on Wednesday, March 4, 2026. At that time, TVN24 and Forsal.pl reported on the release of a new NBP projection regarding inflation and GDP growth, which for the first time officially extended the econometric modeling horizon through the end of 2028. Rather than heralding a swift return of price dynamics to the ideal equilibrium point, the analytical department's figures showed that returning indicators to targeted levels would be a multi-year process. Media commentary on what analysts extracted from their models converged on a single conclusion: there was no room for rate reductions.

The next round of data arrived on Wednesday, July 8, 2026. The National Bank of Poland then presented updated ranges for the inflation path and gross domestic product dynamics for 2026–2028, as immediately noted by Portal Spożywczy. Instead of providing the Council with arguments for cutting rates, the new ranges confirmed the economy's steady resilience alongside a lack of guarantees that cost pressures would be permanently extinguished.

These figures from the central bank's analytical department served as the primary argument for Adam Glapiński and the MPC majority. As long as models operating on a horizon up to 2028 do not indicate a definitive suppression of price pressures under conditions of subdued demand, pushing rates below 4% would mean playing with fire and reigniting inflation. Policymakers treated these forecasts as an instruction to maintain a firm stance.

The Market Overshot Its Forecasts: Interest Rates Remain Unchanged

The spring months brought a temporary anomaly that completely misled commercial brokerage economists. On Friday, May 29, 2026, the daily "Puls Biznesu" summed up the situation with a definitive conclusion: prices have stopped rising, interest rates will stay unchanged, and the market terribly overshot its assessment of the post-crisis fallout.

Institutional investors interpreted the May lull in price dynamics as definitive proof that the MPC's restrictive stance had accomplished its mission and that the time for easing had arrived. This proved to be a flawed research assumption. Market participants mistook a temporary halt in current price index increases for the achievement of lasting equilibrium in the Polish economy.

Commercial bank economists had projected that post-crisis complications would lead to a deep slump in manufacturing activity, forcing the Monetary Policy Council to deliver emergency rate cuts to safeguard jobs. Reality challenged this pessimism. The economy retained its resilience, consumers did not stop spending, and businesses did not face a wave of bankruptcies. Consequently, the MPC had no reason to rescue the market with an artificial injection of cheap credit.

Leaving rates untouched in May was a calculated move. The central bank knew that an isolated data point does not make a sustainable disinflationary trend. Had the MPC responded then with a cut below 4%, it would have added fuel to the fire, risking a secondary surge in the cost of living the moment investment activity rebounded. The May meeting demonstrated once again that the market had anticipated a surrender from Świętokrzyska Street far too hastily.

A Shift in Sentiment: From the Specter of Hikes to Dreams of Cuts

At the start of the second half of the year, investor psychology underwent a dramatic transformation. On Monday, July 6, 2026, "Rzeczpospolita" described this phenomenon bluntly: instead of rate hikes, the market began dreaming of cuts.

Just a few months earlier, some analysts had worried whether the MPC might be forced into another upward move to rein in stubborn core inflation components. Once that scenario was taken off the table by stabilizing indicators, the emotional pendulum swung to the opposite extreme. Capital holders and commentators began assuming that a series of aggressive cuts to the cost of money was the natural and only possible next step.

Pricing in FRA contracts and government bonds began factoring in declines in reference rates. Indebted households hoped that autumn would bring a noticeable reduction in mortgage installments, while businesses planned debt refinancing under more favorable terms. Yet this entire market puzzle rested on wishful thinking that completely disregarded the signals sent by hawkish MPC members.

Financial institutions were trading on dreams, not facts. Those hopes turned out to be completely detached from reality. The MPC, led by Adam Glapiński, consistently reiterated that the central bank does not conduct policy at the beck and call of market valuations. Dreams of entering sub-4% interest rate territory lasted barely a few dozen days before crumbling under the weight of hard macroeconomic data flowing from the real economy.

GDP Acceleration and Inflation Surprise Close the Debate

The final blow to hopes of cheaper credit was dealt by data released late in the summer. On Monday, August 31, 2026, 300Gospodarka.pl published a report that shut down any debate about reductions entirely: inflation surprised to the upside, gross domestic product accelerated, and rate cuts once again drifted drastically into the distance.

The August macroeconomic data pack brought a textbook confluence of factors preventing the central bank from easing monetary policy. The unexpected uptick in the inflation reading proved that price pressures in Poland had by no means dissipated and carried the potential to escalate anew. Meanwhile, higher-than-expected economic growth vividly demonstrated that domestic demand remained robust, with consumers still possessing the purchasing power that allows producers to pass rising costs on to final prices.

Under conditions of accelerating GDP growth, cutting interest rates below 4% would have been a grave error in central banking practice. Such a move would have risked immediately overheating the economy and entrenching inflation at levels well above the permissible tolerance band. For the MPC, the August figures served as an ironclad justification. Council members gained indisputable proof that the Polish economy did not require monetary stimulus, and that maintaining strict interest rate discipline had to remain the top priority.

The prospect of borrowing costs falling below the 4% threshold in 2026 was thus definitively buried. All hopes held by borrowers for autumn rate relief vanished in the face of rebounding price dynamics and robust economic demand.

Summary of Indicators and Monetary Decisions in 2026

The course of events in 2026 serves as a lesson in humility for market analysts and financial institutions that repeatedly attempted to anticipate a pivot in NBP policy. Expectations for a swift descent of the reference rate below 4% proved off-target at every stage of the year. The calendar of events illustrates how hard macroeconomic data systematically recalibrated market forecasts:

January 14, 2026. The MPC's first rate-setting meeting of the new year. Speculation regarding the possibility of NBP interest rates dropping below 4% as early as January ended with parameters remaining at their existing levels.

March 4, 2026. The NBP's Economic Analysis and Research Department publishes a new projection for inflation and GDP growth extending to 2028, ruling out immediate monetary easing.

May 29, 2026. The recording of flat price growth—misinterpreted by investors as a signal for rate cuts—revealed that the market had overshot in its assessment of post-crisis fallout.

July 6, 2026. A sentiment shift across the financial sector. The market abandoned concerns over rate hikes in favor of expectations for cuts, beginning to price in a cheaper cost of capital.

July 8, 2026. The central bank presents updated ranges for inflation and gross domestic product for 2026–2028, cooling speculation about a loosening of monetary discipline.

August 31, 2026. Publication of data showing an unexpected rebound in inflation alongside accelerating GDP growth, definitively dashing hopes for interest rate cuts in the following months.

This situation highlights a market mechanism that borrowers frequently overlook. Strong GDP growth, while beneficial for the state budget and employment statistics, turns into a burden for indebted individuals. As long as economic activity shows no signs of a severe downturn, the central bank lacks the mandate to lower rates and loosen financial conditions.

What This Means for You

The lack of interest rate reductions below the 4% threshold means that individuals servicing floating-rate mortgages will not see their monthly payments fall in 2026. Debt servicing costs will remain at elevated levels. The winners in this environment are savers, as commercial banks have no room to drastically slash interest rates on fixed deposits and savings accounts. The catch, however, is that August's inflation rebound eats away at accrued interest in real terms, eroding the actual purchasing power of accumulated capital despite accelerating GDP growth.

Questions and Answers

Did NBP interest rates drop below 4% in 2026?

No, National Bank of Poland interest rates did not fall below the 4% threshold. The MPC maintained monetary policy parameters at their current levels, rejecting market speculation of swift easing.

What years did the updated NBP projection presented in July 2026 cover?

The updated projection prepared by the NBP's Economic Analysis and Research Department outlined new ranges for inflation and GDP growth over the 2026–2028 horizon.

What specific inflation and GDP figures were published in late August 2026?

Official reports did not specify the exact percentage values for the August inflation reading or the specific GDP growth figure. They merely stated that inflation delivered an upside surprise and that gross domestic product growth accelerated distinctly.

Why was the prospect of rate cuts blocked after August 31, 2026?

The cause was the simultaneous emergence of two factors: accelerating GDP growth and an unexpected jump in inflation readings. This macroeconomic setup made it impossible for the MPC to initiate an interest rate-cutting cycle.