Were interest rates maintained at the level of 5.75 percent?

In brief

The MPC maintained the reference rate at 5.75 percent in November 2024.
The decision resulted in no changes to mortgage installment amounts during that period.
A year later, in November 2025, the MPC decided to cut interest rates.

MPC decision from November 2024: Freezing rates at 5.75 percent

MPC decision from November 2024: Freezing rates at 5.75 percent.

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council made a decision that meant the status quo for millions of borrowers. NBP interest rates were maintained at the level of 5.75 percent. It was a clear signal that the central bank was not opting to loosen monetary policy, even though pressure for downward moves was clearly felt in economists' discussions at the time.

Official confirmation of the stabilization of money costs came on November 6, 2024. At that time, the media, including the TVN24 portal reporting on the event, unequivocally informed about the lack of changes in monetary policy parameters. There was no room for surprise, although the market expected a clear declaration regarding further steps. Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent was then the foundation upon which loan installment calculations were based.

For mortgage holders, that decision was a signal of stabilization, but also a disappointment for those who were counting on a quick return to lower debt servicing costs. The Council chose a wait-and-see approach, which, in retrospect, shows how cautiously inflation issues were approached at the time. The lack of movement in November 2024 froze hopes for quick cuts, leaving the reference rate at a level that today, from the perspective of September 2026, seems quite distant. Back then, however, it was the hard financial reality that the banking sector and customers had to face. This decision effectively extinguished market emotions, imposing a predictable, albeit costly for borrowers, stabilization strategy.

Evolution of monetary policy: From 2024 to 2025

November 2024 brought calm to the financial markets, at least regarding the Monetary Policy Council's decision. It was then that the MPC decided to keep NBP interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent. It was a signal of clear stabilization, which at the time extinguished speculation regarding possible moves in either direction. Investors and borrowers received a clear message: the situation is under control, and the cost of money remains in limbo.

A year later, the decision-making landscape changed diametrically, showing a completely different dynamic of central bank actions. While a wait-and-see attitude dominated in 2024, the autumn of 2025 was marked by active monetary policy easing. The difference in the approach of the Council members was clear.

Here is a comparison of these two periods:

05.11.2024: The Monetary Policy Council decides to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent.
05.11.2025: The MPC cuts interest rates, which became a fact of great significance for market observers.
According to Bankier.pl data, November 2025 went down in history as the time of the second autumn cut.

The jump from a "freeze" policy to a cycle of cuts is a signal to households that inflationary pressure has eased enough to allow for cheaper loans. However, for savers, this means the need to look for new havens for capital, because the interest on bank deposits began to lose its attractiveness quickly. This change was not accidental, but the result of a year-long evolution in the assessment of macroeconomic risk. The difference between November 2024 and November 2025 is a transition from defensive stabilization to offensive support for the economy, which best shows how volatile the foundations of Polish monetary policy can be in just twelve months.

Factors influencing MPC decisions in 2026

In July 2026, the Monetary Policy Council again decided to keep interest rates unchanged. This decision was made in the shadow of growing geopolitical tension, specifically the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which market analysts had been pointing to for weeks as the main risk factor for the Polish economy. Despite external pressure, policymakers concluded that the current monetary policy framework remains sufficient.

It is worth recalling that the stabilization of the cost of money is nothing new in recent years. It was November 2024 that proved to be a key reference point, when the Council maintained NBP interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision from nearly two years ago laid the foundation for the current "wait-and-see" strategy.

The Portal Samorządowy, in a report from July 18, 2026, clearly emphasized that the future of interest rates will be directly dependent on how the situation in the Middle East unfolds. Uncertainty in commodity markets, caused by tensions in Iran, makes the MPC prefer to remain cautious rather than take drastic moves toward cuts. The zloty remains under pressure, which further limits the room for maneuver for the Council.

The situation is a stalemate. On one hand, there is hope for cheaper loans, on the other – an external conflict that effectively cools the enthusiasm for easing monetary policy. The market got used to 5.75 percent back in 2024, and so far there is no indication that this "anchor digit" will quickly disappear from NBP communications. Borrowers must prepare for the fact that if the international situation does not de-escalate quickly, the current level of rates will remain with us much longer than assumed at the beginning of this year.

The impact of geopolitics on the Polish zloty and the economy

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council made a decision that, for millions of borrowers, was a signal of stabilization: NBP interest rates were kept unchanged at 5.75 percent. In retrospect, it is clear that this decision was not just a technocratic calculation, but an expression of caution regarding the external conditions of the time. Today, after nearly two years, the mechanism of dependence between global geopolitics and central bank decisions has become even more stark and ruthless for the Polish economy.

Current tensions between the USA and Iran, widely reported on July 8, 2026, directly translate into the condition of the zloty. As the INNPoland.pl portal pointed out at the time, this conflict exerts powerful pressure on the national currency, which by its nature limits the room for maneuver for the MPC. The editors of Parkiet, in an analysis from the same day, put forward an even bolder thesis: the escalation of actions in the Iran region is a potential factor provoking interest rate hikes. It is a simple relationship – a weak zloty means more expensive imports, and that is a direct path to the return of inflationary pressure.

This situation puts Council members on the defensive. Regardless of the internal needs of the economy, it is events in the Middle East that are now dictating the pace of change. As reported on July 18, 2026, by the Portal Samorządowy, citing PIE analyses, further decisions regarding the cost of money in Poland will be directly dependent on the scale of the conflict's escalation. If the oil and commodity market reacts violently, the MPC's current caution could be abandoned instantly. For borrowers who were counting on a lasting downward trend, this is a signal that 5.75 percent may cease to be a reference point and become merely a memory of a more stable period.

Forecasts for borrowers for the end of 2026

Hopes for quick and significant cuts in loan costs in the final months of 2026 are fading. Although many bank customers look back with longing, comparing the current situation to November 2024, when the Monetary Policy Council maintained NBP interest rates at 5.75 percent, today's economic environment is much more unpredictable. The market no longer has as clear a path as it did then.

Analysts point to several factors that make expectations toward the MPC extremely cautious today:

A Direct Money analysis from April 13, 2026, regarding interest rate forecasts for the entire year 2026, suggested that the Council would be extremely restrained in its moves, which subsequent months have confirmed.
MPC decisions remain closely tied to inflation dynamics and the external situation, which in practice means that national monetary policy is a hostage to events in the Middle East, as warned in July by media such as Parkiet, wGospodarce, and INNPoland.pl.
The Portal Samorządowy on July 18, 2026, clearly communicated, following the Polish Economic Institute, that further decisions would depend on the scale of the conflict's escalation in that region, which effectively rules out simple forecasting of installment drops for the average borrower.

For mortgage holders, this means one thing: living in limbo. The lack of a clear signal about easing monetary policy means that household budgets must be planned taking into account the current, high costs of debt servicing. Borrowers who were counting on a repeat of optimistic scenarios may feel disappointed. External geopolitical shocks have become a more important reference point for Council members than the internal needs of Poles' wallets. Every MPC meeting in recent months has resembled an attempt to maintain the status quo rather than boldly creating the country's financial future.

Summary of the most important financial decisions

The Monetary Policy Council in November 2024 opted for stabilization, maintaining NBP interest rates at an unchanged level of 5.75 percent. This decision effectively closed speculation about a quick easing of monetary policy, which dominated market discussions at the time. Today, looking from the perspective of September 2026, it is clear that that move was only a stop, not the end of the cycle.

A year later, in November 2025, the MPC decided on a correction, lowering interest rates. That was the second autumn "quarter-point" cut, which gave borrowers a glimmer of hope for cheaper money in the long term. However, the enthusiasm quickly faded. The current year has brought completely new challenges that have dominated the Council's meetings. July 2026 brought a decision to maintain existing rates, which directly resulted from the tense geopolitical situation. The conflict between the USA and Iran and the escalation of tensions in the Middle East effectively tied the hands of MPC members. The zloty came under pressure, and inflationary risks effectively ruled out further cuts.

Comparison of the latest key decisions:

Stabilization of rates at 5.75 percent — November 2024 (TVN24)
Interest rate cut — November 2025 (Business Insider Polska, Bankier.pl)
Maintaining rates in the face of tensions in the Middle East — July 2026 (Parkiet, wGospodarce, INNPoland.pl, Portal Samorządowy)

For the average Pole's wallet, this means living in limbo. Instead of a predictable downward trend, we are dealing with reactive crisis management. The uncertainty fueled by the situation in the Middle East region means that forecasts from the beginning of 2026 can be dismissed as fairy tales today. The Council is afraid to loosen the screws until the zloty exchange rate stabilizes in the face of global turmoil. Borrowers must arm themselves with patience, because there is no talk of cheap money in the near future.

What this means for you

Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent in 2024 meant installment stabilization for borrowers, while later cuts in 2025 brought relief. Currently, in 2026, investors must take into account geopolitical risks that limit the room for easing monetary policy.

Questions and answers

What was the level of the NBP reference rate in November 2024?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council maintained the reference rate at 5.75 percent.

Were there any changes to interest rates in 2025?

Yes, in November 2025, the Monetary Policy Council decided to cut interest rates.

What currently influences MPC decisions in 2026?

Key factors are the inflation situation and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, including in the Middle East.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.