Interest rates in Poland: Will you feel relief on your loan in 2026?

In brief

The MPC maintains interest rates at 5.75 percent due to inflationary risks caused by the situation in the Middle East.
Following the cuts in the autumn of 2025, the credit market has entered a wait-and-see phase, and loan installments are not showing significant declines.
Experts predict that we will approach the optimal interest rate level no sooner than the end of 2026.

Why did the MPC freeze interest rates in 2026?

During its July 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent. For borrowers, this means an extended wait for lower installments, as the prospect of monetary policy easing has moved further into the future. Hopes for rapid declines in debt costs, which seemed realistic just a few months ago, have collided with a brutal geopolitical reality.

The main brake for the Council members has become the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, specifically the intensifying rivalry between the USA and Iran. Such a situation on the international stage automatically translates into financial market instability and pressure on the zloty. In an economy heavily dependent on energy imports, any tension in the Persian Gulf region raises concerns about cost-push inflation. The MPC does not want to risk easing policy at a time when the currency exchange rate could react sharply to reports from the front.

Analysts at the Polish Economic Institute are cautious in their assessments. They point out directly that any further moves up or down will be strictly dependent on how the situation in the Middle East develops. There is no room for optimism here, as energy security and fuel price stability have become hostages to high-stakes politics.

In practice, this means that borrowers should not count on significant relief in their household budgets until at least the end of 2026. The MPC is clearly choosing a wait-and-see strategy, prioritizing the fight for the stability of the zloty over immediate support for mortgage holders. For the wallets of Poles, this is a clear signal: the status quo is maintained, and dreams of cheap money must wait for the situation in the world's flashpoints to calm down.

Balance sheet of the past months: From autumn cuts to stagnation

Borrowers' hopes for a quick return to lower installments have finally faded. Today, the Monetary Policy Council is firmly holding interest rates at 5.75 percent, completely extinguishing expectations for downward moves before the end of 2026. This is a brutal lesson in humility for a market that, just a year ago, was pricing in an aggressive monetary easing cycle.

Everything started promisingly. November 2025 brought the second autumn quarter-point cut, which whetted appetites for cheap money. However, the optimism was short-lived. December 2025 brought the first disappointment when it turned out that, despite the MPC's decision, the installments of some mortgage loans remained at an almost unchanged level. Banks showed exceptional caution, and the interbank market did not react enthusiastically to these moves.

Later, it only got harder. Instead of a continuation of the downward trend, the 2025 rate-cut cycle was brutally halted. The reason? New external threats that dominated the rhetoric of the Council members. The tense situation in the Middle East and the escalation of the conflict, including rising tensions between the USA and Iran, effectively tied the hands of policymakers. In the face of a weakening zloty and growing geopolitical uncertainty, the priority became stabilizing the exchange rate, not providing relief for borrowers' wallets.

Economists warned as early as November 2025 that the optimal interest rate level was a song of the future and that the road to it would be bumpy. Today we see the results. Despite the past months, during which we counted on a reversal of the trend, we are standing still. For holders of variable interest rate loans, this means one thing: a freeze on debt service costs at the current high level. Hopes for real cuts have been shelved, and market reality has forced a painful adaptation to permanent stagnation.

What do economists forecast for the end of 2026?

The Monetary Policy Council has frozen interest rates at 5.75 percent, and there is no room to change this course. The main barrier remains the geopolitical situation, specifically the tensions in the Middle East, which have effectively dampened the optimism of policymakers. The average borrower's wallet therefore remains a hostage to external factors. The zloty, under constant market pressure, does not give the MPC the room for maneuver that mortgage holders would expect.

Hopes for quick relief on loan installments must be shelved. The autumn of 2025, when the market was still living with the memory of two cuts, seems like a distant past today. Back then, analysts warned that the road to the "optimal level" would be bumpy. Today we see they were right. Below, we present what currently determines experts' expectations regarding the end of 2026:

Forecasts from November 2025, published in Forbes, indicated that reaching the optimal interest rate level was possible no sooner than the end of 2026. The current situation shows that even this rather conservative scenario is in serious doubt.

Long-term market uncertainty has become the new norm. Pressure on the zloty exchange rate, caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Iran region, prevents the Council from easing monetary policy without the risk of triggering another wave of inflation.

The lack of movement from the MPC is a signal to many households that the coming months will pass under the sign of persistently high debt service costs. If anyone was counting on quick "cheap loans," they must face the hard reality. The market is now pricing in stabilization, not easing. This means that for the next few months, the only certain information for the borrower remains the lack of changes in installment amounts. Hopes for a breakthrough have been effectively extinguished by global political instability.

Impact on Poles' wallets: Borrowers in limbo

The Monetary Policy Council is maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent. For millions of Poles paying off mortgages, this means one thing: the end of hopes for quick relief in monthly obligations. The lack of further cuts means maintaining debt service costs at the current level. Instead of the expected drops in installments, borrowers' wallets remain under the same pressure as in recent months.

Geopolitics is once again dictating the terms in the Polish economy. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including the intensifying US-Iran conflict, is hitting financial markets. The zloty is under clear pressure, which limits the space for the NBP to ease monetary policy. Currency stability has become a priority for MPC members, which effectively blocks any easing of credit parameters.

Hopes for cheaper money, which were sparked by the autumn decisions of 2025, have been definitively shelved. Back in November 2025, the market speculated about a quick cycle of cuts, but today's reality is brutally different. Instead of the expected easing, borrowers must prepare for stagnation.

Experts from the Polish Economic Institute signaled as early as July that further decisions would be strictly correlated with the development of the international situation. Current communications confirm this scenario. Significant reductions in loan installments remain on hold until at least the end of 2026. For the average household, this is a message about the need to continue tightening their belts, with no prospects for a breather in the household budget in the coming months. The market provides no indications to suggest that the situation will change in favor of the indebted this year. Time passes, and the installment amount remains rock-solid.

Table of MPC decisions in the last cycle

The Monetary Policy Council has left no illusions. On July 8, 2026, interest rates were maintained at 5.75 percent. This decision results directly from the unstable situation in the Middle East, which effectively paralyzes any moves toward easing monetary policy. The market, which half a year ago was waiting for cheap credit, must now arm itself with patience.

November 2025: Second cut in the autumn cycle — a signal of hope (Bankier.pl)
July 2026: Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent — freezing credit costs (wGospodarce)

Borrowers who were counting on a quick breather after the autumn decisions of 2025 have hit a wall. Back then, financial markets were living with the hope of a quick decline in debt service costs. Today we know that that optimism was premature. The escalation of the conflict between the USA and Iran, which the media warned about in July, effectively pushed inflation and interest rates to the sidelines. The zloty, remaining under constant geopolitical pressure, excludes the aggressive cuts that mortgage holders are waiting for.

From the perspective of the average Pole's wallet, this means one thing. Installments will remain at the current high level until at least the end of 2026. Experts, like the economist quoted by Forbes, warned as early as the end of 2025 that reaching the optimal level would take longer than the greatest optimists assumed. Reality has brutally verified these forecasts. Stabilization at the 5.75 percent level currently constitutes a safe haven for the MPC, but for the borrower, it is simply a lack of relief in monthly bills. There is no point in counting on a real breakthrough in the coming quarters.

Geopolitics and Poland's economic stability

The Monetary Policy Council has decided to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent. Hopes for quickly relieving household budgets have been definitively shelved. Although the market was still living with hopes for a cycle of cuts last year, the current international situation has forced a defensive stance on policymakers.

The main risk factor remains the US-Iran conflict. Tensions in the Middle East are not just a distant echo of media headlines, but a real threat to Polish inflation. Every jump in energy commodity prices, caused by destabilization in the region, hits the zloty directly. A weakened currency means higher import prices, which in turn forces the MPC to keep its finger on the pulse and avoid any sudden downward moves. Stabilizing the exchange rate has become a priority that takes precedence over the desire to stimulate the economy with cheaper credit.

Financial institutions leave no illusions. Fighting potential price pressure is currently more important than relief for borrowers. In practice, this means that significant reductions in loan installments remain on hold until at least the end of 2026. As the Polish Economic Institute pointed out earlier, future interest rate decisions will be almost entirely dependent on the dynamics of the escalation in the Middle East.

For the average mortgage holder, this is a simple, albeit painful, message: the era of cheap money will not return in the coming months. Anyone who was counting on an autumn adjustment of installments must verify their financial plans. The MPC will not risk easing monetary policy until the geopolitical map of the world becomes more predictable. Currently, it is safer to assume stagnation than to expect positive surprises.

What this means for you

Editorial angle: For borrowers, this means the necessity of continuing to plan household budgets based on current, high debt service costs. On the other hand, holders of deposits gain, as their interest rates remain at a relatively high level due to the lack of aggressive rate cuts. The catch lies in the geopolitical risk – any escalation in the Middle East could push dreams of cheaper loans further into the future.

Questions and answers

Why haven't my loan installments dropped even though the MPC was cutting rates in 2025?

Banks often adjust their offers with a delay, and market rates (WIBOR) react to expectations of future decisions, which are currently being hindered by the unstable geopolitical situation.

Will interest rates fall again in 2026?

Experts indicate that the optimal interest rate level may be reached no sooner than the end of 2026, provided that the situation in the Middle East calms down.

How does the situation in Iran affect my pocket in Poland?

Geopolitical tensions affect commodity markets and the zloty exchange rate, which forces the MPC to be cautious in lowering rates so as not to allow inflation to rise again.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts are derived from the sources listed above.