Budget 2027: Will the lack of NBP profit sink Polish finances?

The government will not receive profit from the NBP following the bank's record loss for 2025, which, in the face of planned expenditures of a trillion zlotys, forces the Ministry of Finance to seek savings in special-purpose funds and issue debt on external markets to avoid losing financial sovereignty. The ministry is preparing plans to reduce the deficit by verifying departmental expenditures and renegotiating defense contracts, attempting to avoid a sharp tax increase in 2027. The liquidity constraint in the public finance sector necessitates a shift to a budget management model based on radical investment prioritization, as the central bank has ceased to function as a stabilizer of state income.

Multi-billion hole in the central bank: The 2025 balance sheet

The National Bank of Poland closed 2025 with a financial result that definitively excludes any payment of funds to the state budget in 2027. Official data confirmed on May 4, 2026, by the Bankier.pl service indicate a record loss that exceeded previous negative forecasts. For the Ministry of Finance, this information was not a surprise, but the final confirmation of the end of an era in which central bank profits served as a convenient buffer for government spending plans.

The problem stems from the central bank's operating mechanism, whose operating costs and the costs of conducting monetary policy – including the payment of interest on commercial bank deposits at the NBP – exceeded revenues from investments in foreign assets. When the NBP records a loss, it not only fails to transfer payments to the State Treasury but also loses the ability to support public finances in emergency situations. In practice, this means that the finance ministry must independently finance the gap that was filled in previous years by the NBP dividend.

This situation forces the government to revise its deficit assumptions. The Ministry of Finance can no longer rely on accounting transfers from the headquarters on Świętokrzyska Street. Every billion that did not flow into the budget must be covered by the issuance of treasury securities, which directly increases the cost of servicing the state debt. In the face of rising interest rates on global markets, the cost of borrowing money is becoming one of the biggest burdens on the 2027 budget.

A trillion zlotys in spending: Where did the discipline go?

Planned state expenditures for 2027 are approaching the one-trillion-zloty barrier. Reports from TVN24 on August 29, 2026, indicate that the scale of government obligations is rigid, resulting from long-term contracts and the state's modernization needs. The biggest challenge is maintaining the pace of defense financing, which, according to information from the Subiektywnie o finansach service on March 9, 2026, is set to consume as much as 200 billion PLN.

In addition to the army, the government must maintain funding for the extensive railway network and the modernization of road infrastructure. These investments, planned years ago, are largely based on the assumption of stable tax revenues and favorable credit conditions. The lack of support from the NBP means the government must choose between slowing down the pace of investment and increasing debt. This choice is politically risky, as any attempt at cuts in infrastructure or defense meets with resistance within the ruling coalition and the electorate.

The Ministry of Finance is currently considering austerity mechanisms to reduce pressure on the central budget. One of them is shifting the burden of financing certain projects to special-purpose funds, but this solution is limited by EU fiscal rules and the European Commission's supervision of the general government deficit. The government is therefore in a situation where a trillion zlotys of spending must be financed while simultaneously lacking one of the most important non-tax sources of income.

The gold strategy: NBP against budget logic

Despite record losses reported for 2025, the National Bank of Poland has not changed its policy regarding the purchase of bullion. As reported by the pb.pl service in April 2026, the institution continues an aggressive strategy of increasing gold reserves. This decision, while theoretically strengthening the country's long-term currency security, further burdens the bank's balance sheet in the short term, which is a signal of inflexibility to the government.

Economists point to the disconnect between monetary policy goals and the state's fiscal needs. While the Ministry of Finance expects savings and a halt to non-essential spending from the NBP, the central bank governor sticks to the reserve-building strategy. The NBP's lack of faith in government stimulus programs, such as the "0 percent" loan reported in April 2026, further complicates relations between the ministry and the central bank.

From a fiscal perspective, every ounce of gold bought by the NBP is a frozen asset. It does not generate liquidity that could feed the budget. The government, which counted on profit from central bank investments, must now face the fact that this institution prioritizes goals other than patching holes in current state spending. This makes every decision by the NBP to buy gold perceived by the finance ministry as another obstacle to closing the 2027 budget.

The specter of losing financial sovereignty

The discussion about the 2027 deficit has ceased to be a debate about GDP growth indicators and has become a conversation about the survival of the state's financial system. The wGospodarce service, in a publication from August 28, 2026, warns that with the current level of spending and the lack of profit from the NBP, Poland is threatened with the loss of financial sovereignty. The mechanism of this threat is simple: in a situation where the state must borrow more and more, and foreign investors begin to question the stability of the budget, bond yields rise.

High bond yields mean higher debt servicing costs. The higher the costs, the smaller the pool of funds for investments, which in turn stifles economic growth. In this way, the state falls into a debt trap where most tax revenues are consumed by interest rather than social or defense goals. This is the scenario called the loss of financial sovereignty – a situation where financial markets, not the government, begin to dictate the terms of budget policy.

Criticism of the NBP and Nawrocki's plans, which appeared in March 2026 in Money.pl, points to deep divisions regarding the management of national assets. Some experts go even further, describing certain actions of state institutions as dangerous to the integrity of the financial system. In this atmosphere, the lack of NBP profit becomes a symbol of a broader management crisis, in which institutional goals win over the needs of the state.

Relations with Adam Glapiński: A frozen dialogue

Relations between the government and Adam Glapiński remain in a state of permanent freeze. As reported by the Zero.pl service on August 25, 2026, the government cannot count on a "cold shower" in the form of any concessions from the central bank. This situation hinders the coordination of economic policy, which under normal conditions should be synchronized between the finance ministry and the NBP.

The lack of dialogue means the government cannot count on any informal support in managing budget liquidity. In the past, when the NBP recorded profits, there were unwritten rules for transferring part of the surpluses, which allowed for flexible responses to sudden financial needs. Today, these rules do not apply because the central bank itself is struggling with losses. Adam Glapiński, maintaining a course of independence from government expectations, has placed the finance ministry in a situation where it must seek solutions solely on the fiscal side.

This conflict also has a political dimension. The ruling party, unable to blame the NBP for the lack of payments, must explain to voters the necessity of limiting spending. In turn, the NBP, arguing its loss with market factors and independent monetary policy, cuts itself off from responsibility for the state of the state budget. This creates an impasse in which public finances suffer most, and taxpayers become hostages to a jurisdictional dispute.

Fiscal tools of the Ministry of Finance: How to break the impasse?

In the face of the lack of profit from the NBP, the Ministry of Finance has a limited set of tools. One of them is the optimization of spending in special-purpose funds. Many projects implemented outside the central budget for years were financed with debt that must now be repaid or refinanced on more expensive terms. The ministry is planning a detailed audit of these expenditures, which in practice means halting new, lower-priority investments.

Another tool is the issuance of treasury securities on international markets. The ministry is trying to attract foreign capital by offering bonds with higher interest rates, which is intended to ensure necessary liquidity. However, this is a short-term strategy that, in the long run, increases pressure on the budget through rising interest costs. The government must balance the need to finance the army with maintaining the country's creditworthiness.

A last resort, which the government is trying to avoid, is tax hikes or the introduction of new levies. In the year preceding elections, such solutions are politically costly, which is why the Ministry of Finance is focusing on sealing the tax system and fighting the gray economy. However, the numbers remain inexorable – without additional revenue or deep cuts, the 2027 budget will require a record deficit, which may discourage investors from Polish debt.

Defense risk: Is 200 billion PLN sustainable?

Defense spending of 200 billion PLN represents the largest burden on the budget. Reports from Subiektywnie o finansach on March 9, 2026, indicate that these amounts are necessary for national security in the face of an unstable geopolitical situation. However, the lack of profit from the NBP forces the government to ask whether the pace of these purchases is sustainable without drastically limiting other spheres of public life.

The finance ministry is currently in talks with military equipment suppliers, trying to negotiate deferred payments or a change in the structure of contract financing. This is a difficult task because defense contracts often contain strict clauses regarding payment schedules. Any delay in financing could involve contractual penalties, which would further burden the budget. The government is therefore facing a dilemma: whether to risk delays in defense or to drastically cut spending on health and infrastructure.

Experts warn that attempting to finance all priorities simultaneously will lead to budget destabilization. Defense, while necessary, does not bring a short-term return on investment that could feed the budget. As a result, the state must rely solely on borrowed capital, which, in the absence of an NBP dividend, becomes an increasingly risky operation.

Health sector and infrastructure: Victims of the cash shortage

Faced with the need to prioritize spending, sectors such as health, railways, and road infrastructure are becoming natural targets for budget cuts. Although the government declares its desire to maintain spending on these goals, the financial reality of 2027 forces a review of plans. Road investments, often financed from EU funds, require a local contribution, which is becoming increasingly difficult to provide.

Railways, as a sector requiring huge outlays for modernization, will also feel the lack of state financial stability. Many railway projects that were to be implemented in 2027 may be postponed. This, in turn, will affect the efficiency of transport in the country and the competitiveness of the Polish economy. The situation is similar in healthcare, where rising costs of personnel and medical technology require constant increases in outlays, which will become impossible without additional revenue from the NBP.

The government must decide which investments are key to the survival of the economy and which can be abandoned without major detriment to citizens. This budget selection will be one of the most difficult tasks for the Ministry of Finance in 2027. The lack of profit from the NBP means that every spending decision must be justified by its direct impact on the country's stability.

Summary: Is the 2027 budget safe?

The budget for 2027 is a structure extremely sensitive to market fluctuations. The lack of payment from the NBP, caused by the record loss for 2025, has removed from the public finance system a buffer that for years allowed those in power to avoid difficult decisions. Currently, every zloty spent on defense, roads, or health must come from taxes or debt, which radically increases the finance ministry's responsibility for every budget decision.

Investors and rating agencies are carefully watching Polish finances. The lack of a dividend from the central bank is just one piece of the puzzle that determines the credibility of the state. If the government does not show discipline and present a credible plan to reduce the deficit, debt servicing costs may rise in a way that permanently limits the country's investment opportunities. Poland is at a turning point where decisions made in 2027 will determine the economic condition for decades to come.

The Ministry of Finance must now prove that it can manage the state without the help of the central bank. This is a hard school of management where there is no room for creative accounting or optimistic forecasts. Every billion zlotys of deficit must be reliably justified, and the lack of profit from the NBP should be a lesson that relying on one-off transfers from institutions whose results depend on global markets was a political gamble.

What this means for you

For the average citizen, the lack of profit from the NBP means, first and foremost, less resilience of the state budget to crises. In practice, this may translate into higher loan costs – resulting from higher interest rates maintained by the market – and greater pressure on taxes. Every attempt by the state to patch the budget eventually reaches the taxpayer's pocket, either through direct burdens or through inflation resulting from excessive debt.

Questions and answers

Why is the NBP not paying profit to the budget?

The National Bank of Poland recorded a record loss in 2025, which, according to the NBP Act, makes it impossible to transfer any funds to the state budget. This loss results mainly from the high costs of conducting monetary policy and challenges in financial markets.

Which investments are threatened by the lack of funds from the NBP?

Primarily at risk are ambitious infrastructure projects, the modernization of the railway network, and maintaining the pace of defense spending at 200 billion PLN. Each of these areas requires stable financing, the lack of which forces the ministry to select projects.

Is Poland threatened with the loss of financial sovereignty?

Economists warn that a growing deficit in the absence of support from the central bank increases the state's dependence on external financial markets. If debt servicing costs become too high, markets may begin to dictate the terms of budget policy, which limits the government's decision-making freedom.

Does the purchase of gold by the NBP have an impact on the budget?

Yes, by freezing capital in assets that do not generate current liquidity. Every zloty spent by the NBP on gold is a zloty that is not working for the bank's profit, which could feed the state budget.

What will the Ministry of Finance do to patch the budget hole?

The finance ministry is planning an audit of expenditures in special-purpose funds, the issuance of treasury bonds, and an attempt to renegotiate defense contracts. The goal is to maintain financial liquidity without the need for drastic tax increases in 2027.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.