NBP interest rates: Did the MPC change course in November 2024?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept NBP interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy. This decision was a direct response to persistent inflationary pressure, which at that time effectively blocked maneuvering room for the dovish wing of the Council. The market consensus in this case was exceptionally clear – 10 out of 10 bank analysts predicted that the cost of money would remain on hold, which was confirmed by the announcements of November 6, 2024.

November 2024: Stabilization of rates at 5.75 percent

The decision made during the Council meeting on November 6, 2024, did not come as a surprise to financial market participants. Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent was the result of a cold calculation, where the priority remained curbing the growth of consumer prices. Members of the Monetary Policy Council, analyzing GDP dynamics data and CPI indicators, concluded that premature easing of monetary policy could trigger a boomerang effect. Inflation, although it had slowed down compared to the peaks of previous years, still remained above the NBP's inflation target, which forced policymakers to maintain a high cost of money.

The market priced this scenario with almost one hundred percent certainty. Investors on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and participants in the interbank market did not expect a downward move, which was visible in the stable WIBOR rate quotes. The lack of a rate change in November 2024 set a hard line of defense against further loss of the zloty's purchasing power. This strategy was intended to convince economic participants that the NBP would not allow inflation to spiral out of control again.

For holders of variable-rate mortgage loans, this information meant the continuation of high installments. Household budgets, burdened by debt service costs, did not receive an impulse for improvement. Commercial banks, based on the Council's decision, kept margins at a stable level, which in practice froze the credit market in a state of waiting. Every borrower had to reckon with the fact that the monthly expense for the installment would remain a burden on a similar scale as in previous quarters.

Policymakers clearly communicated that in November 2024, the room for discussion about cuts was marginal. Statements by Council members pointed to the need to observe consumer behavior and analyze the effects of the expiration of protective shields in the energy sector. Maintaining a restrictive course was a form of insurance against the uncertainty that accompanied the global economy. Poland, as a highly open economy, could not afford a too-loose approach when the external environment remained unstable. Stabilization of rates at 5.75 percent became the foundation upon which monetary policy was built in the following months.

Market reaction to the 2024 decision

The market's reaction to the November 2024 decision was muted, which testified to the excellent preparation of investors through communication conducted by the NBP in the weeks preceding the meeting. The lack of volatility in the zloty's quotes immediately after the announcement of the decision confirmed that financial markets had fully discounted the maintenance of interest rates at 5.75 percent. It is worth noting the behavior of treasury bond yields, which did not record sharp movements, suggesting that institutional investors accepted the long-term horizon of high interest rates.

From the perspective of commercial banks, November 2024 was a period of caution in credit policy. The lack of a signal for cuts meant that banks did not have to revise their deposit interest rate tables, which in turn protected deposits from capital outflow. Savers could count on relatively attractive interest, which, with persistent inflation, constituted a form of capital protection. On the other hand, for companies taking out investment loans, the high cost of money was a barrier limiting development activity.

The macroeconomic situation at that time was burdened by geopolitical risk, which directly affected the MPC's decisions. Foreign investors closely followed the announcements from the Council's meetings, looking for clues regarding the future exchange rate. A strong zloty was in the NBP's interest as a tool to limit imported inflation, which explained the decision not to lower rates, despite pressure from some business circles demanding cheaper financing.

The financial market read the November decision as proof of the primacy of currency stability over economic growth stimulation. Such an attitude of the Council was consistent with the central bank's restrictive mandate. The lack of surprises at press conferences after the meeting in 2024 was an element of the "boring monetary policy" strategy, which in conditions of uncertainty was considered the most desirable by market participants. Ultimately, the November decision closed the year 2024 in a predictable way, giving a clear signal: there will be time for cuts in the future, when macroeconomic fundamentals allow for a safe easing of policy.

Autumn 2025: Breakthrough and first cuts

A breakthrough in monetary policy occurred only in the autumn of 2025. After many months of keeping rates at a high level, the Council decided to change course, which was received by the markets as a signal to start an easing cycle. In November 2025, exactly one year after November 2024, the Council's rhetoric softened, and the first decisions on cuts became a fact.

Bankier.pl in its analyses of November 5, 2025, pointed to the "second autumn quarter" as the moment when monetary policy in Poland made a turn. This term referred to a series of decisions that gradually lowered the cost of money, bringing relief to borrowers. The editorial staff of Business Insider Polska confirmed the decision to cut at that time, emphasizing that for households, it was the first breath of relief in months, directly affecting the interest rates on credit obligations, which translated into a decrease in the amount of monthly installments.

However, this turn was not without risk. Council members, deciding to cut in November 2025, had to take into account the international situation. Although domestic inflation began to show a downward trend, the global environment, especially in the context of energy commodity prices, remained tense. The first cut, therefore, became a test for the durability of the disinflationary trend in Poland.

For borrowers, the move from November 2025 was a signal that the tightening cycle, which they had felt so painfully in 2024, had finally passed into history. The joy of lower installments was, however, mitigated by the awareness that the pace of further cuts would depend on factors over which the Polish central bank has no direct control. Today's situation shows that the MPC is still balancing between the need to support the economy and concerns about price stability in the face of external shocks. The cut in 2025 was, therefore, a bold but thoughtful step, resulting from the improvement in core inflation data.

Year 2026: Geopolitical tensions and NBP policy

The year 2026 brought a new set of challenges for the Monetary Policy Council. While 2024 was marked by the fight against inflation through keeping rates at 5.75 percent, in 2026 priorities shifted toward managing the effects of geopolitical instability. July 2026 turned out to be a particularly difficult period, mainly due to the escalation of the conflict between the USA and Iran. Every piece of information about troop movements or attacks in the Middle East region immediately translated into oil prices.

The portal INNPoland.pl indicated in July 2026 that the zloty was under strong pressure in connection with the direct confrontation on the aforementioned front. The energy commodity market reacted nervously, which for the Polish economy meant a real threat of another cost-push inflation spike. The NBP, as the institution responsible for currency stability, had to remain vigilant in this situation. Analysts from the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) and experts quoted by Portal Samorządowy unanimously emphasized that interest rate decisions in 2026 ceased to be the domain of pure domestic economics.

Today, it is the destabilization of energy commodity prices, fueled by global conflicts, that determines the moves of policymakers. The Council does not operate in a vacuum, and every fluctuation in the global oil market forces a redefinition of strategy. If energy costs rise sharply, the MPC faces a dilemma: whether to save the value of the currency by maintaining high rates, or to stimulate the economy, which in the face of geopolitical tensions is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain.

For borrowers, this means that the predictability expected back in 2024 is a thing of the past. At that time, stabilization at 5.75 percent was awaited by the market. Currently, under the influence of external shocks, forecasts regarding the interest rate path are much less optimistic. The zloty, sensitive to every negative signal from Iran or the USA, has become a barometer of fear, which effectively ties the hands of Polish policymakers. The situation remains fluid, and the margin of error for the MPC in 2026 has shrunk drastically.

Why does the conflict in the Middle East hold back cuts?

The feedback mechanism between the situation in the Middle East and the MPC's decisions is direct and concerns primarily energy prices. Tensions in the region, where the world's key oil deposits are located, hit transport and production costs in Poland. Rising fuel prices at gas stations are just the most visible tip of the iceberg. Every product in the inflation basket whose production or transport requires energy becomes more expensive in the wake of oil.

The MPC, remembering the lessons of previous years, prefers to play it safe. Maintaining higher rates in this context is a form of "safety cushion" against unpredictable energy price spikes. If the Council decided on cuts too quickly, a situation could arise where monetary policy easing would coincide with a supply shock. This could permanently anchor inflation expectations at too high a level, which for the economy would be a much worse scenario than periodically maintaining high credit costs.

Another reason for restraint is the stability of the zloty. Global uncertainty always hits emerging market currencies. When capital flees toward safe havens, such as the dollar or the Swiss franc, the Polish currency loses value. A weak zloty imports inflation, which forces the central bank to keep rates at a level that makes investments in Polish zloty-denominated assets more profitable. The MPC fears that a premature rate cut in the face of global chaos would weaken the zloty even further, nullifying efforts in the fight against high prices.

Financial institutions, including the Polish Economic Institute, have consistently warned that every decision to cut rates will be conditioned by the scale of the conflict's escalation. In November 2024, this scale was serious enough that a risky "cheap money" policy was out of the question. In 2026, the situation became even more complicated. Policymakers therefore preferred conservative stabilization instead of experimenting with the cost of money at a time when the global oil market resembles a powder keg. For borrowers, this approach is cautious, but from the point of view of protecting the value of money, it is the only available defensive strategy.

Perspectives for Poles' wallets

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council kept NBP interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision became the foundation from which subsequent months of uncertainty in the financial market bounce off. The current situation of borrowers, looking toward the end of 2026, is determined by that freezing of the cost of money.

The stabilization of rates in 2024 did not bring the relief in credit burdens expected by many. On the contrary, the dynamics of geopolitical events, including the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, keeps the market in check. Direct Money forecasts from April 2026 indicate a lack of clear signals regarding rapid rate drops in the near future. This means that Poles' wallets will remain under the pressure of high installments for the coming quarters. Anyone planning a household budget must carefully follow NBP announcements, because it is they, not market hopes, that dictate the terms of debt repayment.

Key data shaping the current financial landscape are as follows:

NBP reference rate (November 2024): 5.75 percent (TVN24 data, November 6, 2024).
Direct Money forecasts regarding rate drops: no clear indications of rapid cuts in 2026.
Risk factor for rates (according to PIE): escalation of the conflict in the Middle East (July 2026).

The impact of the MPC's decision on the credit market in 2026 is restrictive. Banks are not eager to offer cheaper financing, knowing that the costs of money remain at a level that does not allow for aggressive credit expansion. Borrowers counting on a return to the days of cheap credit must verify their financial plans. In the current economic reality, rate stability is not a relief, but a permanent barrier for many families planning to take on a new long-term obligation. Banks, in the face of uncertainty, have tightened creditworthiness assessment criteria, which, combined with high interest rates, makes access to capital much more difficult.

What this means for you

The decision of November 2024 was a foundation of stabilization, but the current situation in 2026 shows that monetary policy is not free from external factors. Savers on deposits gain, while borrowers expecting faster installment drops in the face of tensions in the Middle East lose.

In practice, this means that stability is a temporary state that can be interrupted at any moment by further supply shocks. For a person paying off a mortgage, this means the need to have a financial cushion in case the MPC decides on more radical steps in response to cost-push inflation. On the other hand, for savers, this is a period in which bank deposits offer real capital protection, as long as inflation remains in check.

The financial market remains in a waiting phase. No one is making hasty investment decisions, knowing that every subsequent MPC decision will be strongly correlated with oil prices and the situation in Iran. The Polish economy, being part of the global system of communicating vessels, must go through this difficult period, trying to minimize the negative impact of external factors on the domestic credit market.

Questions and answers

Why were rates not lowered in November 2024?

The MPC kept rates at 5.75 percent to effectively limit inflationary pressure in the economy and prevent it from rising again.

Does the current situation in Iran affect NBP decisions?

Yes, the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East increases uncertainty about energy prices, which forces the MPC to be more cautious in lowering interest rates.

When did the first cuts occur after November 2024?

The first significant interest rate cuts by the MPC took place in November 2025, which started the monetary policy easing cycle.

Analyzing the last few years, it is clear how much monetary policy is a hostage to the situation in the international arena. The 2024 decision, although criticized by borrowers, was in retrospect necessary to maintain the stability of economic fundamentals. The year 2026 poses completely new questions for the Council, the answer to which will depend on the development of the situation in regions engulfed in conflicts. For each of us, this means the need to be prepared for volatility that will not leave the Polish financial market for a long time. It is worth remembering that the economy does not like a vacuum, and every MPC decision, even the most conservative one, has its reflection in the household budgets of Poles.

The NBP's long-term strategy, based on high rates in 2024, was aimed at creating a safety margin that allowed for later cuts in 2025. However, the challenges of 2026 show that this margin can be quickly consumed by external factors. Borrowers must therefore remain vigilant and not assume that the road to cheaper money will be simple and devoid of obstacles. Every Council meeting in 2026 will be closely watched by investors, and any change in the announcement could trigger a reaction in the currency and bond markets.

Stability, which seemed so close in 2025, in the face of the July 2026 tensions, has become a deficit value. Will the MPC manage to maintain a course that will allow for further, safe cuts? This question remains open and depends on many variables that cannot be fully predicted. The Polish economy, although resistant to many shocks, must now prove its resilience in the face of global geopolitical uncertainty.

Finally, it is worth adding that the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council are not just numbers in NBP tables, but above all real consequences for each of us. From mortgage interest rates to the prices of basic products in stores – everything is indirectly linked to what happens in the building on Świętokrzyska Street. That is why it is so important to follow the announcements coming from the Council and understand the mechanisms behind every decision made. In a world where the situation in the Middle East can change the rules of the game in an instant, knowledge about monetary policy becomes a key tool in managing one's own finances.

To sum up, the road from 5.75 percent in November 2024 to the decisions of 2026 is a story of the fight for stability in troubled times. The Monetary Policy Council, despite pressure, tries to maintain moderation, which for many is difficult to accept, but for the economy constitutes a foundation of security. Will the coming months bring relief to borrowers? That depends on many factors, including the development of the situation in Iran and the USA, which directly shape global commodity prices. We are left to observe and wait for further announcements from the NBP, which so far remain the most important signpost for the Polish financial market.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.