NBP interest rates: Will your loan installment fall in 2026?

In brief

The MPC kept interest rates at 5.75 percent in July 2026.
Escalating international tensions (Iran-USA) forced a pause in the rate-cutting cycle that began in the autumn of 2025.
Economists indicate that a return to an optimal interest rate level may occur no sooner than the end of 2026.

Evolution of monetary policy: from November 2024 to July 2026

In July 2026, the Monetary Policy Council slowed its previous momentum, keeping interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision freezes the hopes of many borrowers for a quick drop in installments. To understand why we are at this point, one must look at the path we have traveled since the autumn of 2024. Back then, in November 2024, interest rates were also 5.75 percent. Over the following months, the market closely followed every move of the MPC, waiting for a signal to loosen policy.

The breakthrough came in 2025. In November 2025, the Council decided on a second autumn interest rate cut. It was a move that tangibly affected the wallets of Poles, giving the illusion of a rapid downward cycle. The market reacted optimistically, and economists began to speak loudly about a return to lower debt servicing costs. Many believed this was the beginning of a long path downward.

However, the July 2026 meeting brutally verified these expectations. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent is not an accidental stop. It is a hard signal that the Council is taking external factors into account, including rising geopolitical tensions between the USA and Iran, which are affecting the zloty exchange rate and inflationary pressure. Instead of further cuts, we have stabilization, which for borrowers means one thing: do not count on an automatic drop in installments anytime soon. After a series of cuts in 2025 that whetted appetites, the current MPC policy is conservative and leaves no room for rapid easing. From the perspective of a household budget, the period of cheap credit has been postponed.

Geopolitics and the Council's decisions: why aren't rates falling?

The Monetary Policy Council's July decision to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent was no surprise to analysts, although for borrowers, it comes as a cold shower. After a series of cuts that took place in 2025, the market was counting on a continuation of the trend. These hopes were, however, brutally verified by the international situation.

The main brake on further monetary policy easing has become the tensions between the USA and Iran. This conflict has ceased to be merely a regional dispute and has become a risk factor that directly hits financial markets. Investors, fearing escalation, are fleeing emerging market currencies, which exerts strong pressure on the zloty. A weaker domestic currency means a higher inflation risk, which the NBP does not want to risk in the current environment.

The Council's stance remains consistently cautious. MPC members openly communicate concerns about external supply shocks that could instantly drive up energy or commodity prices. In such a reality, instead of further cuts, the central bank's priority has become stabilization.

For the average borrower's wallet, this means a state of suspension. The days of dynamic installment drops, which we became accustomed to at the end of last year, are over. Now we must accept the current costs of debt servicing. The MPC is sending a clear signal: as long as there is a chill on the international stage, you can forget about cheap money. This is not a pro-growth policy, but a defensive survival strategy in unpredictable conditions. Every subsequent month with such rates is a endurance test for household budgets that many Poles may not be prepared for.

The credit market in 2026: current status

For holders of mortgage loans taken out in zlotys, the third quarter of this year brought the expected calm, but not relief. During its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision definitively closed the door on further rapid drops in installments that many borrowers were counting on just a few months ago.

The situation looks as follows:

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent means no real drop in debt servicing costs in the third quarter of 2026.
As recently as April 2026, market forecasts indicated the possibility of continuing the cutting cycle, which was supposed to bring noticeable relief to household budgets.
The current MPC decision, made in the face of a tense geopolitical situation, including the escalation of the conflict in Iran, forces the market to revise its expectations.

In practice, this means that beneficiaries of the series of cuts from the autumn of 2025 must reconcile themselves to the current state of affairs. Back then, after the Council's dynamic moves, it seemed that the road to cheaper credit was open and wide. Today, we see a ceiling. Maintaining the cost of money at the current level is a signal for banks to stabilize margins, which for the end customer means freezing installments at the current, relatively high level.

The enthusiasm that accompanied the end of last year has evaporated. The zloty, under pressure from events in the Middle East, does not give the MPC the room for maneuver that analysts were demanding back in the spring. Whoever was counting on further cuts in April must now verify their financial plans. There will be no cheap credit in 2026, and monetary policy has become a hostage to global uncertainty. The wallets of Poles remain under constant, unchanging pressure.

Expert forecasts: when will the breakthrough occur?

The Monetary Policy Council did not change course during its July 2026 meeting. Interest rates were maintained at 5.75 percent. For mortgage holders, this is a clear signal: do not count on cheaper money in the third quarter. After the series of cuts in 2025, the market was counting on further easing, but the geopolitical situation, including the escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran, is effectively cooling the central bank's enthusiasm.

The autumn of 2025 brought real relief to borrowers. At that time, the MPC decided on two cuts in a row, which many analysts interpreted as the beginning of a clear downward trend. Reality, however, turned out to be more complex. The current stagnation of rates is the result of the caution that economists have been demanding for months.

Let's look at the forecasts that shaped market expectations in the first half of the year. The Direct Money service indicated in April 2026 that there was great uncertainty regarding the pace of further easing. In turn, "Forbes" took a more concrete stance back in November 2025. Experts in that publication predicted at the time that "we will reach the optimal level no sooner than the end of 2026."

Do these predictions have a chance to come true before the end of December? Today, in September, it seems unlikely. The MPC is clearly afraid of pressure on the zloty, which results from the unstable situation in commodity markets. Borrowers must reconcile themselves to the fact that installments in the fourth quarter will not be lower. Instead of counting on a quick drop, one should prepare the household budget for a scenario in which 5.75 percent becomes the new, long-term norm. The optimism of a year ago has evaporated, giving way to cold calculation.

Impact on inflation and the purchasing power of money

Following a series of autumn cuts in 2025, which gave borrowers' wallets some breathing room, the Monetary Policy Council decided in July 2026 on a move awaited by the market – stopping the monetary policy easing cycle. Interest rates were kept at 5.75 percent. This decision directly means the stabilization of mortgage installments, which have not seen further drops, but have not shot up either.

For the decision-makers at the MPC, the priority remains the stabilization of the zloty's value, which has been under clear pressure in recent months. External geopolitical turbulence, especially tensions between the USA and Iran, forced the Council to take a more cautious approach to the cost of money. Maintaining rates unchanged in this context is a defensive mechanism. The currency market reacted nervously to the escalation in the Middle East region, and any hasty cut could have led to an uncontrolled weakening of the Polish currency, which in turn would have translated into an increase in the prices of imported goods and fuels.

A key argument for maintaining the current parameters is also the prices of raw materials and energy. The unstable international situation does not allow for optimism in inflation forecasts. Although consumers were counting on a continuation of the downward trend, the MPC decided that the inflation risk resulting from energy costs is too high to continue easing the course. Leaving rates at 5.75 percent is intended to protect the purchasing power of money from the effects of potential supply shocks.

Borrowers must therefore prepare for a longer stagnation in their repayment schedules. Optimistic visions of a quick return to cheap credit have collided with the hard reality of global tensions. The Council is not closing the door to future changes, but the July communiqué clearly indicates that the fight against inflation using monetary tools has entered a waiting phase.

Summary for the borrower: what to prepare for?

Stabilization is the word that best describes the current situation in the banking sector. After a series of cuts in 2025, the Monetary Policy Council decided during its July 2026 meeting to keep interest rates at an unchanged level of 5.75 percent. This decision, dictated by, among other things, the tense geopolitical situation between the USA and Iran and pressure on the zloty, clearly communicates one thing: there will be no cheap credit in the coming months.

For mortgage holders, this means the end of hopes for quick and dynamic drops in installments, which many had tied their plans for the second half of the year to. The repayment schedule will remain similar to what we have been observing for several weeks. The currency market is currently too unstable, and external risks are too great for the MPC to afford to loosen monetary policy in the face of inflationary threats.

Here is what this specifically means for the household budget:

The necessity of maintaining a financial buffer in the household budget remains an absolute priority. Since rates have not fallen and the macroeconomic environment is volatile, having savings in case of sudden market turmoil is a more sensible move than planning larger consumer expenditures.
There are no real premises for a quick drop in installments in the coming months. Instead of counting on radical cuts, one must assume a scenario of maintaining current debt servicing costs. If anyone expected that autumn would bring relief in monthly transfers to the bank, they must verify their expectations.

Let us remember that the economic situation is fluid, and the MPC's decisions from July are a reaction to current risks. Banks have already priced this state into their credit offers, so it is not worth waiting for moves that currently have no basis in the Council's decisions. Planning finances based on the current 5.75 percent rates is the only safe approach for every borrower at this moment.

What this means for you

The MPC decision means that borrowers will not feel relief in installment payments in the near future. Savers on deposits gain, as they can count on the maintenance of current interest rates, but the economy is losing momentum due to the suspension of credit stimulation.

Questions and answers

Did interest rates fall in 2026?

No, in July 2026, the MPC kept interest rates at 5.75 percent, halting the cutting cycle.

Why is the MPC not cutting rates despite earlier forecasts?

The main reason is the escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran, which exerts pressure on the zloty and forces the Council to be cautious.

When can we expect further changes in loan installments?

Experts indicate that a return to an optimal interest rate level may occur no sooner than the end of 2026.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts are derived from the sources listed above.