NBP interest rates: why isn't your loan installment decreasing?

In brief

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent means the cost of debt servicing remains stable at its current high level.
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict remains a key risk factor that prevents the RPP from starting a monetary policy easing cycle.
According to economists' forecasts, a return to an optimal interest rate level is possible no earlier than the end of 2026.

The 5.75 percent decision: Why did the RPP decide not to act?

The Monetary Policy Council's decision to keep the NBP reference rate at 5.75 percent puts an end to speculation about quick relief for borrowers. For mortgage holders based on the WIBOR index, this means the status quo: the amount of monthly obligations remains unchanged. The lack of a downward move is not accidental.

The RPP is operating under conditions of extreme external uncertainty. July analyses pointed to rising tension between the US and Iran, and experts from the Polish Economic Institute openly admitted that future decisions would be directly dependent on the scale of the conflict's escalation in the Middle East. The Council does not want to risk a sharp weakening of the zloty, which is under clear pressure due to geopolitical turbulence. In these circumstances, caution becomes the primary strategy, rather than a result of inertia.

Council members prioritize economic stabilization over immediate market satisfaction. Any premature cut in the face of external shocks could fuel inflation, the suppression of which remains the central bank's priority. As a result, despite earlier hopes for cheaper credit, we must arm ourselves with patience. The prospect of returning to optimal interest rate levels, which economists mentioned as recently as last autumn, is being pushed further into the future. Instead of rapid monetary policy easing, we received a signal: we will have to wait longer for cheaper installments. The RPP is sending a clear message that the fight for price stability takes precedence over relief for borrowers' wallets, which in the current geopolitical situation is a defensive, but—from the central bank's perspective—necessary decision.

Geopolitical risks: The conflict in the Middle East and the Polish economy

In the face of international uncertainty, the Monetary Policy Council has no room for maneuver. Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent is the result of a cold calculation, in which the main player is no longer just domestic inflation, but primarily the situation in the Middle East. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has become the central bank's main risk factor for price stability in Poland.

Analysts at the Polish Economic Institute point out directly that decisions regarding interest rates currently depend directly on the course of events in that region. These are not theoretical considerations about distant politics. Global tensions exert direct pressure on the commodity and energy markets. Any jump in oil or gas prices caused by unrest in the Persian Gulf immediately translates into inflation expectations in our country, which forces the RPP to maintain a restrictive course.

For the borrower, this means a simple, albeit painful truth. As long as the geopolitical dust does not settle, one can forget about cheap credit. Stabilization of commodity prices is a necessary condition for Council members to dare to move toward cuts. Financial markets react nervously to every piece of news about the escalation of the conflict, which effectively blocks the possibility of a decline in the WIBOR index. In this puzzle, the Polish borrower becomes a hostage to events over which they have no influence, but whose effects they feel in every monthly transfer to the bank. If the situation in the Middle East worsens, the scenario of maintaining high interest rates for a longer period will become not just probable, but downright inevitable.

Forecasts for 2026: When will there be real cuts?

Borrowers' hopes for quick relief in their wallets have been definitively postponed. The Monetary Policy Council, by keeping rates at 5.75 percent, left no room for interpretation. The current monetary policy cycle is long-term in nature, which means that a return to cheaper money will not happen in the coming months.

The macroeconomic situation remains exceptionally fragile, which effectively paralyzes any RPP moves toward easing policy. Economic forecasts paint a scenario of patience, not rapid change, for holders of WIBOR-based mortgages. There is no room for sharp cuts as long as data flowing from the economy—including echoes of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East—generate pressure on the zloty and increase uncertainty.

Here is what awaits us in the coming months according to analysts:

"We will reach the optimal level at the earliest by the end of 2026" – this is the opinion of economists indicating a realistic time horizon for possible changes in interest rates.
The lack of stabilization in the international environment, including the escalation of the conflict in Iran, effectively hinders the Council from taking any steps toward cuts.
Further RPP decisions are strictly dependent on inflation data and the condition of the zloty, which remain unpredictable in the face of geopolitical variables such as the situation in the Middle East.

For the borrower, this means one thing. Installments will remain at their current high level for most of 2026. Central banks do not like chaos, and in current conditions, any premature cut could reignite inflation. Instead of looking for hope in quick announcements from the NBP, it is worth preparing the household budget to maintain current debt servicing costs. Optimism is currently the worst advisor here.

Currency market: How do international tensions affect the zloty?

The zloty is under clear pressure, and the direct catalyst for this volatility is the situation in Iran. Investors, concerned about the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, react nervously to every piece of news coming from that region. This is not just an academic debate about geopolitics. The weakening of the national currency translates directly into so-called imported inflation, which drastically limits the Monetary Policy Council's room for maneuver regarding monetary policy easing.

The mechanism is simple and ruthless. A weak zloty means more expensive fuel, raw materials, and goods purchased abroad. When imported inflation rises, the chances of interest rate cuts drop almost to zero. The Monetary Policy Council, by keeping rates at 5.75 percent, is sending a clear signal: the fight for currency stability is currently more important than relief for borrowers. The Polish Economic Institute (PIE) clearly indicated as early as mid-July that future interest rate decisions would be strictly dependent on the development of the conflict in the Middle East.

A high-stakes game is being played in this puzzle. If geopolitical risk does not decrease, the RPP will not dare to move downward, fearing further devaluation of the zloty. For a mortgage holder, this means a stalemate. No drop in rates means no drop in the WIBOR index, and thus no real reduction in the monthly installment in the near future. The currency market has therefore become an informal but decisive voice in our wallets. Every fluctuation in the zloty's exchange rate pushes back the moment when monthly obligations to banks will become even slightly less burdensome. Currency stability costs us all, but it is the borrowers who pay the highest price for it in the form of unchanged, high installments.

Borrowers in limbo: What does this mean for your budget?

The Monetary Policy Council's decision to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent hits household budgets with surgical precision. For thousands of Poles, this means one thing: the mortgage installment based on the WIBOR index will not budge. Hopes for quick relief in monthly obligations, which were fueled by some analysts until recently, have ultimately crumbled.

The macroeconomic situation, fueled by geopolitical risk, effectively ties the hands of decision-makers. July 2026 data leaves no illusions. The instability in the Middle East, which markets have been loudly warning about, directly affects the condition of the zloty and RPP decisions. In this puzzle, the borrower is the party paying the bill for global unrest. Banks will not lower the cost of money until the external environment shows signs of lasting stabilization.

What does this mean in practice for your wallet? The necessity of maintaining high financial reserves for the coming months. There is no talk of loosening the belt, because short-term forecasts do not give reason for optimism. Households must prepare for the fact that high debt servicing costs will stay with them for longer. Planning expenses based on dreams of falling installments is currently a strategic error.

Here are the key parameters that determine today's financial reality:

NBP reference rate — 5.75 percent (RPP, July 2026)
Prospect of reaching the optimal level — end of 2026 (Forbes, November 2025)
Main risk factor for further decisions — escalation of the conflict in the Middle East (Portal Samorządowy, July 2026)

For the indebted, this means a hard landing. Instead of counting on a quick drop in WIBOR, one must verify household investment and consumption plans. The money that was supposed to stay in pockets thanks to lower installments will continue to flow to the banking sector. There is no room for a moment of respite.

Institutional stance: PIE and NBP on the future of monetary policy

The Monetary Policy Council's decision to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent closes the door to any downward adjustments. In practice, this means that installments for loans based on the WIBOR index remain at an unchanged, high level. Business Insider Polska warned as early as November 2025 that such a scenario could become the new norm, and current data confirms that these predictions have fully materialized.

Analysts at the Polish Economic Institute point to the factor that is paralyzing the Council. According to data from July 18, 2026, further decisions on interest rates will be fully dependent on the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East. It is geopolitics, not just hard inflation data, that dictates the conditions in which household budgets must function. The RPP does not want to risk sharp moves in a situation of such high external uncertainty.

If you are looking for optimism, you must look at the context. In November 2024, the RPP's strategy was based on extinguishing the effects of previous inflation shocks. Today, this reference point is losing its significance because international instability has become the main brake. For the borrower, it is a simple equation. No changes in monetary policy mean no movement in bank amortization tables. Financial institutions have no basis for lowering base rates. Poles' wallets will not feel the relief that many have expected for months. Patience has become the only strategy available to the market, and arguments about a quick return to the optimal interest rate level, which were written about as recently as the end of 2025, have completely lost their relevance.

What this means for you

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent means that people with variable-rate mortgages cannot count on relief in their monthly installments. On the other hand, those saving on term deposits gain, although these gains are offset by inflationary pressure caused by geopolitical instability.

Questions and answers

Will interest rates rise in the near future?

The RPP is keeping rates at 5.75 percent, and further decisions depend on the situation in the Middle East, however, analysts point to stabilization rather than sharp moves.

When can I expect a drop in my loan installment?

Economists' forecasts indicate that we will reach the optimal level, which would allow for significant installment cuts, no earlier than the end of 2026.

How does the situation in Iran affect my loan?

Geopolitical tensions cause uncertainty, which forces the RPP to maintain higher interest rates to protect the zloty and stabilize inflation, which directly translates into maintaining high loan installments.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.