NBP interest rates: Is 5.75 percent the new "new normal"?

In November 2024, the MPC maintained the reference rate at 5.75 percent, which initiated a period of waiting, and current forecasts indicate that an optimal level will not be reached until the end of 2026. This decision means that owners of variable-rate mortgage loans cannot count on a reduction in installments in the coming months. Maintaining the cost of money at the current level translates into real financial burdens for households, which, on an annual basis, exceed market expectations from twelve months ago by several thousand zlotys.

A decision that froze the loan market

Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent signals to the banking sector that the current debt financing conditions will be maintained for a longer period. Commercial banks, monitoring the Monetary Policy Council's communications, have adjusted their offers to the lack of prospects for rapid monetary policy easing. This process has eliminated aggressive promotional campaigns based on a rapid drop in variable interest rates from the market. A borrower with a liability of 300,000 PLN, taken out under standard conditions, feels the effects of this decision in their daily budget.

Assuming a bank margin of 2 percent and the WIBOR 3M index, the cost of servicing debt remains at a level about 280 PLN per month higher compared to scenarios assuming rapid rate cuts. On an annual scale, this means an additional expense of 3,300–3,500 PLN, which burdens the household's financial liquidity. The monetary transmission mechanism in Poland shows high inertia, which means that central banks avoid sudden moves, fearing a loss of control over price dynamics. Each month of delay in cuts translates into real interest costs, which are included in the long-term repayment schedule.

Analyses by financial institutions, including mBank, indicate that the lack of a lasting downward trend in core inflation prevents the Council from taking more flexible actions. The labor market, despite signs of a slowdown, remains strong enough to generate wage pressure, which in the eyes of NBP decision-makers is an argument for keeping rates at the current, restrictive level. Price stability has gained the status of a superior goal, prioritized over stimulating consumption through cheaper credit. PKO BP in its forecasts suggests that the current cost of capital is a state of equilibrium, not an anomaly, which forces borrowers to verify long-term investment plans.

Geopolitics and the zloty exchange rate

Tensions between the USA and Iran in mid-2026 caused volatility in currency markets, which forced the MPC to adopt a cautious stance in monetary policy. The zloty, as an emerging market currency, reacts to global conflicts by weakening, which directly affects the costs of importing goods and energy. Any rate cut at a time of pressure on the national currency would carry the risk of accelerating imported inflation. The MPC therefore chooses exchange rate stabilization, protecting the value of the zloty at the expense of higher loan interest rates for citizens.

This mechanism is clear: higher rates attract foreign capital looking for investments with higher profitability. If the NBP decided to cut rates prematurely, investors could withdraw funds, which would lead to a depreciation of the zloty and an increase in fuel and food prices. The geopolitical checkmate limits the Council's room for maneuver to a minimum. Each meeting becomes an analysis not only of inflation indicators, but above all of the financial markets' reaction to the situation in the Persian Gulf.

For the Polish borrower, this means that the international situation has a measurable impact on the amount of the monthly installment. The MPC maintains the 5.75 percent rate as a fuse protecting the real value of savings, which, however, keeps debtors in a state of uncertainty regarding future debt servicing costs. Direct Money points out that as long as the situation in the Middle East does not show signs of lasting stabilization, no changes in monetary strategy should be expected. This is an approach based on economic realism, in which interest rate decisions become a derivative of the country's energy and currency security.

Schedule of changes and the situation of borrowers

The loan market is in a wait-and-see phase, and the banking machine avoids aggressively pricing in future cuts. Data from the end of 2025, analyzed by TVN24 among others, confirmed that even in periods when markets expected corrections, loan installments remained stable. Bank margins and WIBOR valuations discount future macroeconomic risks well in advance, which means that customers do not feel the relief resulting from the mere announcements of changes.

The widespread expectation for the end of the monetary tightening cycle has collided with banking practice. Financial institutions, including PKO BP analysts, forecast that we will reach the optimal level only at the end of 2026, which means that banks are already constructing loan portfolios based on this time horizon. The lack of room for rapid cuts results from the accumulation of geopolitical risk and inflationary pressure, which in the Council's assessment is still too high.

The monetary transmission mechanism remains opaque to the client, but logical from the point of view of the bank's balance sheet. The borrower is financing uncertainty. If the NBP keeps rates unchanged, banks hedge themselves with high loan interest rates to offset potential losses resulting from economic volatility. An exit from this scheme will only occur when inflation permanently falls below the NBP target and the international environment becomes predictable.

TotalMoney.pl forecasts for September 2026 indicate persistent high uncertainty, which rules out sudden moves in monetary policy. Forbes already in November 2025 emphasized that the optimal level for the economy is the perspective of the end of 2026. This diagnosis remains current and determines the actions of the MPC. Every month of delay is a signal for thousands of households not to plan for significant budget relief before the end of this calendar year.

Parkiet analyses from July 2026 suggest that the MPC will keep rates at an elevated level for as long as possible to avoid the need for sharp hikes in the future in the event of a price shock. This is a long-term strategy that is most felt by the debtor, but it ensures the stability of the financial system. Anyone counting on quick cuts must prepare for disappointment, as the Council shows no desire to take risky decisions in the current economic climate.

NBP and government position: Shared challenges

The context of 2026 imposes a difficult logic of action on state institutions. The interdependence between price stability and labor market protection has become the main point of contention in the rhetoric of decision-makers. The government needs cheaper credit to drive investment, but the NBP does not want to risk a return of inflation. This is a classic conflict of interest, which in current geopolitical conditions, with tensions between the USA and Iran and pressure on the zloty, becomes even more pronounced.

Borrowers are waiting for signals that will bring real relief in installments, but institutions remain deaf to political expectations. In this puzzle, no one wants to make the first, risky move. It remains to wait for the autumn, which, according to forecasts, is to bring a final clarification of the interest rate path. The MPC consistently maintains a course of caution, constantly monitoring incoming data on inflation and GDP dynamics. Behind the scenes, there is talk of balancing on a tightrope. On one hand, there is inflationary pressure, which still does not allow for bold monetary easing, and on the other – a clear need to stimulate the economy.

Every meeting of the Council is a nervous analysis of indicators that surprise analysts time and again. This is not a comfortable situation for anyone. The government, wanting to avoid a slowdown in public investment, exerts informal pressure on the NBP, but the Council members remain unyielding. What in economic theory is called central bank independence, in practice means a collision of two different visions of the country's development. For the borrower, this dispute is secondary – only what remains in the wallet after paying the bank matters. And in the current political and economic configuration, this wallet will have to withstand at least a few more quarters of high debt servicing costs.

Summary: Budget management in times of uncertainty

Responsible financial management today requires taking into account a long time horizon when planning repayments. If quick relief was expected, reality turned out to be more expensive. Stabilizing rates at this level is not a gift for the debtor, but a lesson in patience that banks do not intend to shorten. No more short-term budget planning from installment to installment.

There is no other way than carefully monitoring the MPC's decisions, as they remain the absolute most important indicator for the wallet. Each meeting of the Council is a signal of whether to tighten the belt or whether one can afford to breathe. One should not look for hidden promises of a quick cut in the communications. The current market situation, fueled by geopolitical unrest, suggests a wait-and-see attitude rather than radical cuts in the cost of money.

Who is winning today? Those who did not assume an optimistic scenario of a lightning-fast drop in installments. The rest must come to terms with the fact that the 5.75 percent level costs the same as it did two years ago. If the household budget was based on hope, not mathematics, it is time for a correction. Otherwise, the autumn of 2026 may bring much more stress than the first, overly optimistic forecasts predicted.

Banks are not charitable institutions. Their goal is to maximize profit under the conditions dictated by the market. If the market requires high rates, banks will maintain them until the client pays off their liability. This is a harsh rule that in 2026 becomes clear to anyone who has a variable-rate loan. Managing finances in such conditions requires a cool head and giving up on waiting for a miracle from the NBP.

What this means for you

For borrowers, this means the need to continue tightening the belt, because despite expectations for cheaper credit, external factors – such as the situation in Iran – effectively block rapid rate cuts. Those saving on deposits gain, while holders of variable-rate loans lose. This is an example of capital redistribution in times of uncertainty. The installment will not fall until the global geopolitical situation allows for the stabilization of the zloty exchange rate, which, according to analysts, will not happen before the end of 2026.

Questions and answers

Why aren't interest rates falling faster?

The main obstacle is the pressure on the zloty resulting from international tensions and the need to fight inflation, which is confirmed by analyses from July 2026. Currency stability is more important to the MPC than temporary relief for borrowers.

When will loan installments really fall?

Experts indicate that we will likely reach the optimal level of rates, which will translate into noticeable installment reductions, only at the end of 2026. Earlier corrections may be cosmetic and will not significantly affect household budgets.

How does the situation in Iran affect my loan in Poland?

Geopolitical tensions weaken the zloty, which forces the MPC to maintain higher interest rates to stabilize the economy and counteract the rise in prices of imported goods. This is a mechanism that translates into higher interest on mortgage loans.

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*Additional editorial analysis:*
The current economic landscape in which we operate is based on the assumption that the costs of money are no longer a variable dependent solely on local inflation readings. The Polish economy has become a hostage to global supply chains and political instability in raw material extraction regions. Borrowers who took out liabilities during a period of historically low rates must now face a new reality in which the cost of capital is a permanent element of central banks' defensive strategy.

From the central bank's perspective, maintaining rates at 5.75 percent is the only tool guaranteeing that the economy does not fall into an inflationary spiral. From the perspective of the household budget, this situation forces a revision of priorities. It should be assumed that until the end of 2026, volatility will dominate, and the hope for a return to the times of cheap credit is economically unjustified.

It is worth noting that banks currently have tools allowing for long-term hedging of interest rate risk. Clients who feel that their budget will not withstand subsequent quarters of high installments should look for solutions such as switching to a fixed interest rate, provided the bank's offer allows for this in a profitable way. However, it should be remembered that banks always price this risk to their advantage, so any such decision should be preceded by a thorough analysis of the total cost of the loan, not just the amount of the next installment.

The real estate market also reacts to these changes with a delay. Developers, who for years benefited from easy access to capital, must now adjust margins to demand limited by high financing costs. This means that in the long term, we can expect stabilization or a correction in apartment prices, which for people with cash will be an opportunity, but for the indebted – another challenge.

In summary, the year 2026 looms as a time of adaptation. It will not be a period of sudden jumps, but a slow, tedious process of extinguishing inflation, which takes place at the expense of borrowers' wallets. The strategy adopted by the NBP is clear – stabilization at all costs. For the citizen, this means the need to live in an environment where money is expensive, and the waiting time for better conditions is measured not in months, but in years. Any decision to take on a new liability should be made assuming that the 5.75 percent level is a new reference point, not a temporary anomaly.

Any appeals for quick cuts coming from politicians are purely populist in nature and are not reflected in the macroeconomic data that the Monetary Policy Council analyzes every month. The independence of the central bank, although often criticized by those in power, is in this case the only barrier protecting the country from currency chaos. Debtors must therefore demonstrate high resistance to financial stress and the ability to manage liquidity in conditions where no institution will provide them with a guarantee for cheaper credit before the end of 2026.

Ultimately, this situation is a test for the Polish middle class, which in recent years has become accustomed to dynamic wealth growth based on cheap money. Now, in the face of higher costs, the financial models of many families are being verified. Those who had a financial cushion will pass through this period more stably. Those who relied on optimistic forecasts about a rapid drop in rates will be forced to make drastic spending cuts. There is one conclusion: in a market economy, there is no room for sentiment, and the MPC's decisions are merely a technical reflection of global risk, which translates directly into every zloty paid as part of a mortgage loan. It remains to wait for the autumn of 2026, when the interest rate path may finally begin to set a new, more affordable trend for all participants in the loan market in Poland.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.