NBP interest rates in July 2026: Will there be further cuts?

On July 8, 2026, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to keep NBP interest rates at an unchanged level, refraining from further cuts. The base level, resulting from a series of autumn reductions that began in November 2025, therefore remains higher than the financial market had expected. This decision definitively ends hopes for a quick return to cheaper money before the end of the summer, forcing market participants to revise their assumptions for the second half of the year.

Stabilization as a shield against risk

The Council's July meeting was closely watched not only by domestic economists but also by foreign financial institutions, which have been analyzing the impact of tensions in the Middle East on the stability of the zloty for months. Keeping interest rates at the level set after the two autumn "quarter-point" cuts of 2025 is not the result of a lack of ideas for stimulating the economy, but a calculated attempt to avoid an inflationary shock. The Council members, taking into account the escalation between the USA and Iran, concluded that current external conditions are too unstable to risk further lowering the cost of capital.

For investors, the signal from the National Bank of Poland is clear: the priority is protecting the value of the national currency. Every basis point of a cut in the face of such strong geopolitical pressure could lead to a sharp sell-off of the zloty. A weaker currency is a direct hit to the prices of imported raw materials, primarily fuels and gas, whose prices on global markets react nervously to every signal coming from conflict-affected regions. The MPC, in its risk assessment, opted for stabilization, concluding that the costs of higher debt servicing are a lesser evil than the risk of a wage-price spiral triggered by a weakening zloty.

It is worth recalling the position of Forbes experts, who warned as early as November 2025 that the road to an optimal level would require immense patience. At that time, it was pointed out that the real chances of reaching the target interest rate would appear no earlier than the end of 2026. Today's decision to maintain the status quo fits perfectly into this conservative scenario. The Council does not want to be a hostage to short-term market expectations, choosing instead a defensive strategy of "waiting out" the global turmoil.

Borrowers: living in the shadow of high costs

For millions of Poles with mortgages, the July decision is a cold shower. Hopes for a significant reduction in installments, which accompanied every meeting since the autumn cycle of 2025, have been postponed indefinitely. Borrowers, especially those with variable-rate loans, must come to terms with the fact that their monthly financial obligations will remain at a high level for the coming months. The lack of a rate cut means that commercial banks have no incentive to lower margins or refinancing offers, which preserves the current situation in the credit market.

This situation forces households to abandon investment plans. People who were holding off on property purchase decisions in anticipation of cheaper money have found themselves in a trap. The high cost of debt servicing limits creditworthiness, which in practice means that the entry threshold for the housing market remains out of reach for many families. Banks, maintaining a restrictive approach to risk assessment, do not intend to facilitate access to capital until the macroeconomic environment becomes predictable.

It is worth noting that this stagnation hits the real estate segment with double force. On one hand, we have buyers who cannot afford an expensive loan, and on the other, developers who are struggling with high costs of financing their own investments. As a result, the market is stalling, and instead of the expected growth dynamics, we are dealing with a wait-and-see approach. The lack of movement from the MPC in July 2026 is a concrete loss in the household budget for borrowers – money that could have been allocated to consumption continues to go to the banking sector in the form of interest.

Savers: beneficiaries of a difficult situation

While borrowers are feeling the negative effects of the July decision, the situation looks completely different from the perspective of people with savings in deposits and savings accounts. Keeping interest rates at the current high level is information for them that banks will not drastically lower deposit interest rates. In the short term, savers gain some capital protection, although the real rate of return remains under strong inflationary pressure.

The Council's strategy therefore protects the capital of those who have shown financial discipline over the last two years. However, it is worth remembering that this is an apparent gain. Maintaining high rates is also a signal that the economy cannot count on cheap financing, which in the long term may limit GDP growth, and thus the potential for further accumulating savings. Savers, although satisfied with the maintenance of deposit interest rates, must be aware that we live in an environment where the fight for the value of money is fiercer than ever.

It is also worth noting the behavior of the banking sector. Financial institutions, having certainty about MPC policy, do not feel pressure to fight for customers by raising rates on deposits. The market is saturated in this respect, and the banks' offer has become predictable and unattractive for those looking for a real profit above inflation. Savers, like borrowers, are therefore in a kind of "clinch," where the only option remains patiently waiting for a change in the course of monetary policy in the coming quarters.

Mechanisms of geopolitics' influence on the MPC

An analysis of the communications from the MPC clearly indicates that geopolitics has ceased to be just a background for monetary decisions and has become their main determinant. The conflict between the USA and Iran, which intensified in mid-2026, is a factor that the Council cannot ignore. The mechanism is simple: destabilization in the Middle East triggers a wave of capital flight to so-called safe havens, such as the US dollar or the Swiss franc. The Polish zloty, as an emerging market currency, is particularly exposed to sell-offs at such moments.

When the zloty loses value, the costs of importing goods denominated in foreign currencies rise. This applies not only to energy raw materials but also to a wide range of consumer goods and semi-finished products used by Polish industry. The MPC, wanting to prevent imported inflation, must keep rates at a higher level, which makes the zloty more attractive for foreign capital – the so-called *carry trade*. This is a kind of defense mechanism. A rate cut in such conditions would be perceived by the markets as a capitulation to inflationary pressure, which could lead to a speculative attack on our currency.

Monetary Policy Council members must therefore balance on a thin line. On one hand, they strive to stimulate the economy, which would require cheaper money, and on the other, they are hostages to global conflicts. This defensive stance is often criticized by business circles, which point to the stifling of investment, but from the central bank's perspective, it is the only way to maintain macroeconomic stability. It is not a comfortable situation, but from the point of view of the state's financial security – it is necessary.

The role of communication in building predictability

A key element of the NBP's strategy in July 2026 has become communication. The Council tries to avoid rigid declarations regarding future moves, which is understandable in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Instead of promises, we receive signals about "monitoring the situation." This approach, while frustrating for market participants expecting concrete roadmaps, allows the Council great flexibility. At any moment, if the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, the MPC can return to a cutting cycle without being bound by earlier declarations.

However, one must ask whether such a strategy does not build too much uncertainty among entrepreneurs. Planning investments in conditions where the cost of financing is variable and dependent on events in distant Iran is extremely difficult. Entrepreneurs, instead of developing their companies, focus on hedging currency and interest rate risks. This phenomenon hinders innovation and the modernization of Polish industry. This is clearly visible in the data on private investment dynamics, which remained at a disappointingly low level in the first half of 2026.

It is worth recalling the opinion of one market analyst who noted that "the MPC has become a reactive, not a proactive institution." Previously, the central bank set the direction; today, it only reacts to external shocks. This is a paradigm shift that will have long-term consequences for the Polish economy. Is this a change for the better? We will only know the answer to this question when the dust on global markets settles and the Polish economy has to find its way in the new reality.

Perspective for entrepreneurs: financing costs

For the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector, the July MPC decision is another obstacle on the road to development. Companies that base their business model on revolving or investment loans must prepare for further belt-tightening. The high cost of debt servicing directly reduces net profitability, which for many smaller entities may mean the need to limit employment or abandon planned expansions.

The SME sector is particularly sensitive to monetary policy. Unlike large corporations, which have access to alternative sources of financing – such as bond issuance or syndicated loans in foreign currencies – small companies are doomed to the offer of commercial banks. And these, as already mentioned, show no desire to lower margins. As a result, keeping interest rates at the current level is a death sentence for margins for many Polish entrepreneurs.

There is also the issue of investment in technology. The Polish economy, to maintain competitiveness in the region, needs constant modernization. However, if the cost of capital remains at a high level, entrepreneurs choose safe "survival" instead of risky investments in automation or digitization. In this context, the July MPC pause is a signal that the Polish economy in 2026 will not be among the growth leaders in Europe. This is the price we pay for monetary stability in uncertain times.

Was the "autumn quarter-point" of 2025 a mistake?

Looking from today's perspective, one can ask about the validity of starting the cutting cycle in November 2025. Was starting the easing premature? At the time, the market reacted euphorically, and economists competed in forecasts regarding a quick return to cheap money. As it turned out, this euphoria was not justified by fundamentals. Today we know that those cuts were merely cosmetic and did not change the structural problems of the Polish economy.

In retrospect, it can be assessed that the MPC in 2025 acted under the pressure of political and social expectations, rather than based on hard macroeconomic data. Today's restraint is a kind of "return to reality." The Council understood that one cannot conduct monetary policy in isolation from global inflationary processes. This lesson in humility that the MPC is currently undergoing is painful for all market participants, but perhaps it is necessary to avoid even more serious mistakes in the future.

Does this mean that the coming months of 2026 will bring a change of guard in the approach to rates? Many indications suggest not. The MPC seems determined to maintain the course until the moment when core inflation falls permanently toward the inflation target and tensions in the Middle East are extinguished. This is a long-term strategy that requires time. Borrowers and entrepreneurs must prepare for the fact that the "new normal" of high interest rates will be with us longer than anyone would like to admit.

The role of the NBP as a guardian of stability

The National Bank of Poland, acting as the guardian of the value of money, faces challenges in 2026 whose scale is unprecedented in the last decade. It is not just about inflation or the exchange rate, but about maintaining trust in the Polish financial system in conditions of a permanent external crisis. The decision of July 8, 2026, is an expression of this responsibility.

It is worth noting that this institution is often attacked from both sides – by politicians demanding cheap loans for citizens and by market analysts pointing to inflationary risks. This pressure, although invisible in official communications, certainly influences the decision-making process. Keeping rates unchanged is also a signal that the NBP wants to maintain independence and not succumb to economic populism. In a world where politics often takes precedence over economics, such an approach deserves attention.

This does not change the fact that for the average citizen, the NBP remains a "black box." The communications published after MPC meetings are often too technical and hermetic, which deepens the divide between the central bank and society. Perhaps this is where there is room for improvement? Understanding by citizens of the reasons why rates remain high could reduce social tensions related to the cost of living. Instead of building an aura of mystery, the NBP could focus on more transparent economic education.

Summary of forecasts for the second half of 2026

The gathered data and expert opinions allow for several conclusions regarding what the coming months will bring. First, one should abandon hopes for sharp downward moves. If the Council decides on any correction, it will be symbolic and preceded by clear signals of an improvement in the geopolitical situation. Second, the credit market will remain in a state of hibernation. Banks will not risk improving offers until they see a clear downward trend in NBP interest rates.

Third, inflation will remain a key risk factor. Even if external pressure eases, internal inflationary factors – such as wage growth or public spending – may force the Council to maintain a restrictive policy. This means that 2026 will be a year of "hard landing" for those who counted on a quick return to the times before the inflation shock.

Ultimately, the most important conclusion from the meeting of July 8, 2026, is that the Polish economy has entered a phase of long-term stabilization. This is not a time for quick profits or dynamic development on credit. It is a time for caution, liquidity management, and building reserves. For the reader, this means that all financial plans for the next six months should take into account the maintenance of the cost of money at the current level. There is no basis to assume that anything in this regard will change before the end of the year.

Questions and answers

Did interest rates change in July 2026?

No, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates at an unchanged level on July 8, 2026, which is a continuation of the stabilization policy after the autumn reductions of 2025.

Why did the MPC not decide on a cut?

The main reason is geopolitical tensions, in particular the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which affects the stability of the zloty and generates the risk of imported inflation, forcing the Council to remain cautious.

When can lower loan installments be expected?

Experts indicate that reaching the optimal level of interest rates is possible no earlier than the end of 2026, provided that the external situation allows for a return to the monetary policy easing cycle.

What impact does the MPC decision have on savers?

Keeping rates at a high level favors people with deposits, because banks have no pressure to lower deposit interest rates, which allows for capital protection in inflationary conditions.

What can entrepreneurs expect in the coming months?

Entrepreneurs must reckon with the maintenance of high financing costs, which limits investment opportunities and forces more conservative management of company budgets until the end of 2026.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.