Interest rates at 5.75 percent: Why did the MPC freeze decisions in November 2024?

In brief

NBP interest rates were maintained at 5.75 percent in November 2024.
The MPC's decision meant no changes in mortgage servicing costs for citizens.
The MPC justified the decision by the need to stabilize inflation and as a reaction to the uncertain geopolitical situation.

November MPC decision: 5.75 percent as a foundation for stability

November 6, 2024, brought a concrete announcement from the National Bank of Poland. The Monetary Policy Council decided that interest rates would remain at 5.75 percent. This information was confirmed at the time by the TVN24 service, finally silencing speculation about a possible move up or down. For millions of Poles paying off mortgages, this meant one thing: a complete lack of change in the amount of monthly obligations.

Keeping rates unchanged in November was not a random move. It was a conscious choice of a wait-and-see strategy. At that time, policymakers were clearly afraid of loosening monetary policy too early, even though social pressure for relief on installments was growing every month. The market expected clear signals for cuts, but instead received a hard anchor. Money remained expensive, and the cost of credit was maintained at a level intended to discourage excessive borrowing.

This decision froze debt servicing costs, which for borrowers was a form of protection against the shock of further hikes, but at the same time, it was a verdict of no expected relief. The Monetary Policy Council opted for stability, putting aside the discussion on stimulating the economy through cheaper credit. From today's perspective, it is clear that the November move was an attempt to wait out the uncertainty in the global and domestic macroeconomic environment. In that balance of power, no one won, but no one lost sharply either. Borrowers were forced to stay in the same place they were a month earlier. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent in November 2024 turned out to be the foundation for

Why did the MPC decide not to make a move in November 2024?

The November decision of the Monetary Policy Council to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent meant the stabilization of debt servicing costs for millions of borrowers. The lack of changes in the amount of mortgage installments was then a direct response to the uncertain inflationary situation, which at the end of 2024 did not give policymakers room for maneuver. Members of the Council preferred not to risk premature loosening of monetary policy in an environment where price stability remained fragile.

The main brake on cuts was the need to carefully monitor external factors. The domestic economy, strongly linked to global markets, was feeling clear pressure from energy prices at the time. Geopolitical tensions, which regularly boosted volatility in commodity markets, effectively cooled the optimism of some analysts expecting faster cuts. The MPC had to weigh the risk of inflation returning to high levels against the desire to stimulate economic growth.

For Poles' wallets, this decision was a signal of "waiting for a better tomorrow," although in practice it only meant extending the status quo. Refraining from changing interest rates in November 2024 showed that the Council prioritized a cautious approach to monetary policy during that period. In retrospect, it is clear that this was a period of building a defensive position for the central bank, which preferred to wait out the wave of uncertainty rather than take risky steps that could destabilize the country's economic foundations. The lack of reaction was therefore the most predictable and at the same time the safest solution for the stability of the zloty at that moment.

Impact of the decision on borrowers' wallets

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep NBP interest rates at 5.75 percent. For millions of Poles paying off mortgages, this meant no changes in the amount of monthly installments at that time. This decision froze the costs of servicing debt based on a variable interest rate, which for many households was a relief, and for others, merely an extension of uncertainty in the household budget.

The lack of changes in the reference rate at 5.75 percent directly translated into the stabilization of the WIBOR index. Commercial banks, assessing risk and the cost of money, had no basis for sharp moves up or down. In practice, this meant that repayment schedules remained unchanged after the Council's November meeting. Borrowers did not feel a breath of relief in their wallets in the form of a lower installment, nor the painful blow of another hike.

Keeping the cost of credit at the existing level in November 2024 was a signal that the MPC prefers to observe data flowing from the economy rather than risk premature loosening of monetary policy. From the perspective of a household budget, this is a safe but expensive solution. Apartment owners with loans in zlotys had to accept the fact that the high installments they had become accustomed to in previous quarters would stay with them for longer. The market reacted with restraint, as the lack of an increase in mortgage installments that month was in line with the expectations of most analysts, who predicted exactly such a defensive stance from policymakers. Stabilization at 5.75 percent was the most predictable scenario at the time, even if for the average borrower it meant no prospect of quickly freeing themselves from high debt servicing costs.

Inflation and monetary policy: challenges at the end of 2024

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council made a decision that meant a hard status quo for millions of Poles paying off mortgages. NBP interest rates remained at 5.75 percent. There was no talk of loosening policy, nor of sharp moves in the other direction. Policymakers preferred to wait out the period of uncertainty, freezing the cost of money in the economy, which directly translated into no changes in the amount of monthly credit installments.

The MPC's strategy at the time resulted from a cold calculation, not a desire to please the markets. Members of the Council faced pressure that could not be ignored. On one hand, we had inflation that still did not want to return to the target permanently, and on the other – an economy needing oxygen so as not to fall into deeper stagnation. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent was therefore a form of defense, an attempt to maintain balance on the edge.

Here is what exactly determined the Council's actions at the end of 2024:

The priority remained fighting inflation while supporting the country's economic stability.
Analysis of incoming macroeconomic data indicated an evident need to conduct a cautious monetary policy, without unnecessary risk.
Any sharp move up or down could have brought unforeseen consequences for the zloty exchange rate, which reacted nervously to the unstable geopolitical situation.

The market expected clear signals, but instead received restraint. Economists counted on bolder forecasts, while the MPC preferred to act in "wait and see" mode. For borrowers, this decision was a relief in the short term because installments did not rise. The longer perspective, however, remained a mystery. No one knew then that real cuts would take many long months to arrive, until the autumn of 2025, when the cycle of cuts finally started for good. The Council chose stability, pushing difficult decisions into the future.

Prospects for the zloty in the face of the MPC decision

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council kept NBP interest rates at 5.75 percent, which meant no changes in the amount of mortgage installments for millions of Poles. This decision had an obvious impact on the currency market, where investors carefully followed the announcements coming from the National Bank of Poland. The stability of interest rates acted in this case as a factor mitigating pressure on the Polish currency, which at that time had to face uncertainty in the international environment.

Analyses published on portals such as innpoland.pl confirmed at the time that MPC decisions are a direct reference point for the strength of the zloty. The market does not like a vacuum, so maintaining the status quo by the Council gave a momentary respite to investors who feared sharp capital movements. The currency exchange rate reacted to this lack of change cautiously, trying to balance potential geopolitical risks with hard data on inflation and domestic economic conditions.

For foreign investors, the November decision was a clear signal: the Polish central bank prefers safe stabilization over unpredictable maneuvers. In retrospect, it is clear that this approach had its pros and cons. The zloty avoided a sharp sell-off, but at the same time lost the momentum that could have resulted from more aggressive monetary policy management. Ultimately, maintaining 5.75 percent became an anchor that, at that specific moment, allowed the market to be protected from excessive volatility. Anyone who watched the charts during that period knew perfectly well that stability is not synonymous with a lack of problems, but only with a temporary shift in the center of gravity in the debate about the future shape of the Polish economy.

What's next for interest rates in 2025 and 2026?

The outlook for borrowers for the coming quarters stopped being foggy, although it is far from the optimism that accompanied the markets a year ago. After the November pause in 2024, when the Monetary Policy Council froze the cost of money at 5.75 percent, the further scenario was dictated by macroeconomic data and geopolitical uncertainty. From the perspective of September 2026, it is clear that the path back to cheaper money turned out to be much bumpier than optimistic scenarios assumed.

Key forecasts that shaped market expectations in recent months painted the following picture:

Bankier.pl — pointed to later cuts in 2025 (Bankier.pl, 05.11.2025)
Forbes — suggested reaching an optimal rate level at the end of 2026 (Forbes, 06.11.2025)

These numbers are not just theoretical assumptions of analysts, but a direct signal for the wallets of millions of Poles. When Bankier.pl signaled a shift in monetary policy loosening to the second half of 2025, dreams of quick relief in mortgage installments collided with the wall of reality. Forbes experts, speaking in November 2025, toned down the mood even more, indicating that we would have to wait until the end of 2026 for a truly "optimal" cost of credit.

The catch is that these forecasts were created in the shadow of growing international tensions. Today, looking at the situation from July 2026, we know that pressure on the zloty, resulting, for example, from the escalation in Iran or tensions between the USA and Iran, effectively tied the hands of the Council members. Every attempt to loosen monetary policy had to be weighed against the risk of inflation and a weakening currency. Borrowers thus became hostages of global geopolitics, and the corrections promised in forecasts from the turn of 2025 and 2026 became a fight for maintaining stability, not for real cuts in the cost of living. Anyone who counted on a quick return to the times before 2024 had to arm themselves with patience. The financial reality simply did not want to speed up.

What this means for you

The MPC decision from November 2024 was a 'wait-and-see' signal. For borrowers, it meant a periodic calm in the amount of installments, but for the economy, it was a necessary pause to protect against a renewed rise in inflation. The catch remained the uncertainty regarding energy commodity prices, which could have forced further restrictions in subsequent months.

Questions and answers

Did loan installments change after the decision of November 2024?

No, maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent meant no changes in the interest rate on loans based on a variable rate.

Why didn't the MPC lower rates in November 2024?

The main reason was the need to fight persistent inflation and uncertainty regarding global geopolitical tensions.

Where to look for official MPC announcements?

Official decisions and justifications of the MPC are always published on the National Bank of Poland's website.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.