Interest rates: will we return to the 5.75% level from 2024?

In November 2024, the MPC maintained rates at 5.75%, and according to 2026 forecasts, a return to optimal monetary policy parameters is possible only towards the end of the current year. The question of returning to earlier levels becomes groundless, as the market has already gone through a cycle of cuts, which, however, did not lead to a sharp drop in debt servicing costs. The current NBP policy focuses on stabilization in the face of volatile external conditions, rather than on ad hoc restoration of historical rate values.

The interest rate landscape in September 2026

Poland's monetary situation in the third quarter of 2026 no longer resembles the period from two years ago. Back then, in November 2024, MPC policymakers were concerned about the persistence of inflation, which resulted in keeping the main rate at 5.75%. Today, in September 2026, this rate is lower, but that does not mean a return to the days of cheap credit. The financial market has become accustomed to living in the shadow of a long-term easing process that does not resemble the sharp moves of previous years.

The main challenge now remains finding a neutral level of rates that will not stimulate inflation while simultaneously not stifling investment in the private sector. Analysts from TotalMoney.pl point out that the market is currently pricing the end of the rate-cutting cycle for the last quarter of 2026. Every decision made on Świętokrzyska Street in Warsaw must take into account not only CPI readings, but above all the condition of the zloty in relation to major world currencies.

For a mortgage holder, this means that interest rates based on market indicators will not fall at the pace expected even a year ago. Commercial banks, hedging against risk, prefer to keep margins at a stable level. Borrowers are in a state of waiting for the Council's subsequent meetings, hoping that the December decisions will bring a final move toward the NBP's inflation target.

Geopolitics as a brake on cuts

Tensions in the Middle East, including the escalation of the conflict between the USA and Iran, have a direct impact on decisions made in Warsaw. Every increase in uncertainty in energy commodity markets, especially crude oil, translates into prices in Poland. In July 2026, when analysts from Parkiet and INNPoland.pl analyzed the impact of these events on the zloty, it became clear that the MPC could not afford to reduce the cost of money too quickly.

A weaker national currency automatically raises import costs, which directly affects consumer goods inflation. If the Council decided on aggressive rate cuts, the difference in the profitability of zloty assets compared to dollar or euro assets could lead to a sell-off of the Polish currency. This, in turn, would force currency interventions, which are significantly more expensive than keeping rates at a slightly higher but stable level.

The currency market has become extremely sensitive to signals from Washington and Tehran. In July 2026, when financial markets trembled at the prospect of escalating military actions, treasury bond yields began to rise, which limited the room for maneuver for the MPC. Policymakers must balance the desire to support economic growth with maintaining the country's external stability. This situation means that every attempt to cut interest rates is preceded by a deep analysis of geopolitical risk.

This uncertainty is not merely a theoretical argument by economists. It translates directly into valuations of interest rate futures. Investors, looking at the map of conflicts, are very cautious about betting on fast and deep cuts. As a result, Polish monetary policy has become a hostage to events over which the NBP has no influence.

Evolution of loan costs from November 2024 to September 2026

The process of interest rate changes in Poland after November 2024 can be divided into two phases. The first was a defensive phase, in which the main rate was 5.75% for many months. It was only in the autumn of 2025 that the Council decided on the first tangible steps toward policy easing. As reported by Bankier.pl in November 2025, the second autumn quarter brought a cut that was a light at the end of the tunnel for many borrowers.

However, the joy was premature. A TVN24 report from the end of 2025 exposed a brutal truth: despite rate cuts, the installments of some loans remained at an almost unchanged level. This was due to the fact that commercial banks included higher costs of obtaining long-term capital in their offers, not just short-term MPC decisions. The credit market is characterized by a certain delay in the transmission of monetary impulses.

In 2026, the situation began to crystallize. Forecasts published in April by Direct Money indicated that 2026 would be a year of slow adjustment. There was no talk of sharp jumps downward. Each subsequent decision was calculated so as not to trigger a demand shock. For the average household, this meant maintaining higher debt servicing costs for a period much longer than originally assumed in the 2024 forecasts.

Experts from Forbes already indicated in November 2025 that the road to the optimal level is long. Their thesis that we would reach it at the earliest at the end of 2026 came true almost to the letter. Currently, in September 2026, we are in the final phase of this process. What was a distant forecast for us has become the present.

Why is the optimal rate level so distant?

The term "optimal monetary policy parameters" is often misused, but in the context of 2026, it means the level of rates at which inflation oscillates around the NBP target and the economy shows balanced growth. In November 2024, the 5.75% level was a protective barrier. Today, after a series of corrections, we are striving for a level that will ensure a real positive rate of return on savings without stifling consumption.

Why, however, did this process take so long? The reason is a structural change in the labor market and wage pressure, which remained at an elevated level in 2025 and 2026. Companies, wanting to retain employees, raised salaries, which translated into the prices of services. The MPC had to take this into account in its forecasting models. If rates had fallen too quickly, we could have experienced the so-called second wave of inflation.

Additionally, we must remember the specifics of the Polish mortgage market. The dominance of variable-rate loans means that every MPC decision hits household budgets with great force. The Council, aware of the social consequences of its decisions, preferred to act cautiously, using the method of small steps. This approach, although frustrating for borrowers, allowed for avoiding sharp turbulence in the banking sector.

It is worth looking at data from July 2026. The level of core inflation, which is crucial for long-term decisions, showed resistance to declines. It was this price rigidity in the services sector that forced the MPC to maintain a restrictive course for almost two years. The optimization of monetary policy thus turned out to be not so much a matter of mathematics as of managing social and economic expectations.

Forecasts for the last quarter of 2026

The coming months will be decisive for the shape of monetary policy for 2027. The financial market prices that at the end of the current year, the Monetary Policy Council will make a final adjustment that will close the adjustment cycle. These expectations are based on the assumption that the geopolitical situation – including the conflict in the Middle East – will not undergo further escalation that could trigger a shock in the fuel market.

Analysts from TotalMoney.pl note that even if there are cuts in Q4 2026, one should not expect a return to the times before 2024. The new monetary equilibrium will likely be set at a higher level of interest rates than before 2022. This is the effect of a permanent change in the global economy, where cheap money has become a thing of the past.

Borrowers should prepare for the fact that even with a lower NBP reference rate, debt servicing costs will remain a burden. Banks will have to compensate for lower interest margins through other commissions or a more rigorous approach to assessing creditworthiness. This change is irreversible in the current economic cycle.

The end of 2026 is the time when we will find out if the Polish economy has managed a "soft landing." Stabilizing rates at the target, optimal level will be a signal to foreign investors that Poland is a predictable market. For Poles, it will be the end of a period of uncertainty, although certainly not the end of financial challenges.

Impact on Poles' wallets: what has changed?

From the perspective of September 2026, one can attempt a balance sheet of the decisions made in November 2024. Back then, rates at 5.75% were a shock to many people who took out loans during the time of zero rates. Today, after two years, Poles' wallets have been redefined. Households that survived the most difficult period have learned to manage liquidity in conditions of expensive money.

Who gained and who lost? Savers gained, who could finally benefit from a real positive interest rate on deposits and savings accounts. For years, the Polish saver was punished for keeping money in the bank – the 2024-2026 period was a time of reversing this trend. On the other hand, all those who based their finances on cheap debt, counting on low rates to return within a few months, lost.

The catch, which is rarely spoken of directly, is that even if rates return to the "optimal" level, the cost of living has risen permanently. Cumulative inflation from recent years has meant that the purchasing power of wages, despite nominal raises, is completely different than it was years ago. Interest rate cuts in 2026 will not negate this effect. They are merely a tool for stabilizing the market, not a cure for the loss of the value of money.

For borrowers who are still repaying obligations, the most important lesson is the need to build a financial cushion. The volatility of monetary policy that we have observed since November 2024 has shown that economic forecasts are fraught with a huge risk of error. Anyone planning their finances for the coming years must assume pessimistic scenarios, because as the situation with the conflict in Iran showed, one external factor can ruin the plans of an entire staff of economists.

Summary: is the worst behind us?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council maintained rates at 5.75%, which was a declaration of fighting inflation at the expense of the current comfort of borrowers. Today, looking from the perspective of September 2026, we know that this decision was the foundation for subsequent stabilization. The road to cuts was bumpy and full of unexpected twists and turns, often steered by external factors over which the NBP had no direct influence.

The real relief that borrowers dreamed of turned out to be a process, not a one-time event. Hopes for a quick return to conditions before the tightening of monetary policy were verified by hard macroeconomic data and the international situation. Forecasts pointing to the end of 2026 as the moment of reaching optimal monetary policy parameters are taking on real shape.

Does this mean the end of turmoil? Data from July 2026 suggest that we are entering a phase of mature stabilization. The MPC's defensive stance, so often criticized by markets in 2025, proved to be an effective method for avoiding the destabilization of the zloty. Household budgets, although still burdened, are slowly getting used to the new cost of money. The last quarter of 2026 will be a test for this new equilibrium. Instead of waiting for a return to historical lows, it is worth focusing on how to function in an environment where money has its real price.

Questions and answers

Are interest rates in 2026 lower than in November 2024?

Yes, the cycle of cuts initiated in 2025 successively brought interest rates below the 5.75% level from November 2024, although this process proceeded more slowly than the market's initial expectations assumed.

When can we expect rate stabilization?

According to current economist forecasts, the optimal level of interest rates, which will allow for balanced economic development with controlled inflation, has a chance to be reached at the end of 2026.

How does the situation in Iran affect my installments?

The conflict in the Middle East affects the valuation of the zloty and energy commodity prices, which forces the Monetary Policy Council to be cautious in cutting rates so as not to lead to a sudden increase in imported inflation, which directly translates into maintaining higher loan installments.

Can we count on a return to interest rates from the period before the tightening after 2026?

Most market analysts indicate that a return to the very low interest rates of 2020-2021 is unlikely in the near future, as the global macroeconomic environment has undergone a permanent change, forcing a higher valuation of capital.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.