Interest rates at 5.75 percent: Was this a turning point for loans?

Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent in November 2024 froze loan installments at a high level, which served as a starting point for a cycle of cuts initiated only in November 2025. This decision, taken in the shadow of growing geopolitical uncertainty, defined the financial conditions of millions of households for twelve months. For borrowers who were counting on quick relief, this period became a test of financial liquidity in the face of persistently high debt servicing costs.

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council faced a dilemma that went beyond classic economic models. The main factor hindering any discussion about monetary policy easing was the situation in the Middle East. The escalation of tensions in Iran, widely reported by "Parkiet", triggered a domino effect in commodity markets. Oil and gas prices, reacting to every piece of information coming from the region, effectively suppressed the Council members' optimism regarding a lasting reduction in inflation. Within the MPC, there was a clear division into factions. On one side were proponents of economic stimulation, and on the other – the camp of caution, which tipped the scales, arguing that any hasty rate cut in the face of a potential supply shock would be playing with fire.

For the average holder of a mortgage loan of PLN 300,000, taken out for 25 years with a bank margin of 2 percent, keeping interest rates at 5.75 percent meant painful stagnation. Let's assume that at the time of the decision, the loan interest rate was 7.75 percent (5.75 percent reference rate + 2 percent margin). The monthly installment of such a loan hovered around PLN 2,270. If the MPC had decided on even a small rate cut of 25 basis points at that time, the installment would have fallen by about 45-50 zlotys. On an annual scale, with rates kept unchanged for the next twelve months, the borrower lost the opportunity to save over 600 zlotys in 2025 alone. This amount, although seemingly small, was a significant burden on the household budget, considering the inflationary pressure on food and energy prices, which remained at elevated levels during that period.

Throughout 2025, the market eagerly awaited signals of change. "wGospodarce" regularly analyzed the MPC's decisions, but the communications coming from the National Bank of Poland were extremely sparse. A "wait and see" strategy dominated. The central bank did not want to repeat the mistake of premature easing, which could have led to a secondary wave of inflation. This approach forced borrowers into a year of sacrifices. Money that could have fueled consumption or been allocated to savings was constantly flowing to banks in the form of interest.

It was not until November 5, 2025, that a breakthrough occurred. "Bankier.pl" noted that the Monetary Policy Council decided on the first significant interest rate cut. It was the second autumn change in the approach to monetary policy, which finally broke the period of total stagnation. However, the joy over this fact was moderate. An economist quoted by "Forbes" in November 2025 emphasized that although the cycle of cuts had become a fact, the road to the optimal level for the economy remains long. In his opinion, real relief for household budgets will not come until the end of 2026.

Despite the start of the cut cycle, many borrowers felt disappointed. As reported by "TVN24" in December 2025, the installments of some loans remained at an almost unchanged level. This is due to the fact that commercial banks base their calculations on WIBOR indicators, which do not always react linearly to NBP decisions. The market priced in future moves by the Council much earlier, which meant that the first cuts were already "priced in" and did not bring a sharp drop in debt servicing costs. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy worked much slower than the average Pole expected.

In September 2026, the Polish economy is functioning in completely different realities, although still under the pressure of uncertainty. "TotalMoney.pl" points out that the process of lowering rates is continuing, but its pace is slow and balanced. The labor market remains strong, which paradoxically gives the MPC an argument not to accelerate cuts. If the economy is able to function at the current level of rates without falling into a recession, the central bank has no reason for aggressive stimulation. For borrowers, this means that installments are falling, but not at a pace that would allow for a quick recovery of losses from 2024-2025.

The macroeconomic situation, analyzed in April 2026 by "Direct Money", points to the need for constant monitoring of core inflation. Even if external factors, such as commodity prices, have stabilized, internal wage pressure in Poland still raises concerns among policymakers. For this reason, forecasts for the second half of 2026 assume caution. There is no talk of a quick return to the era of cheap money that accompanied us before 2022.

Analyzing the impact of these decisions on Poles' wallets, one should pay attention to the psychological aspect of borrowing. In 2024, borrowers were forced to change the structure of their household expenses. Many of them permanently reduced consumption, which translated into a slowdown in retail sales dynamics. This phenomenon, although unfavorable for trade, was a desired side effect for the fight against inflation. The Monetary Policy Council, consciously or not, pursued a policy of disciplining internal demand through high loan installments.

It is worth looking at the other side of the coin – savers. People holding capital in deposits for over a year benefited from attractive interest rates, which were a derivative of high rates. Income from deposits partially offset the cost of living, which created a specific social imbalance. Borrowers felt like hostages of the system, while savers reaped profits from the fact that money was expensive. This dichotomy was visible in public discussions throughout 2025.

"Business Insider Polska" noted that the MPC's communication became more predictable in 2026, but the market remains sensitive to any signals coming from outside. Geopolitical conflicts, even those smoldering in Iran, remain on the central bank's radar. Any sudden jump in oil prices could stop the cycle of cuts, which in current conditions would be a signal for borrowers to further tighten their belts.

Looking at historical data from the last two years, one can see a clear inertia of the system. Since November 2024, when rates were kept at 5.75 percent, many months passed before real installments began to fall. This experience is a lesson for all those in debt: monetary policy is not a tool that works overnight. It is a process that requires time, patience, and above all, a financial reserve.

Currently, in September 2026, the situation of borrowers is more stable, but far from comfortable. Each loan installment still contains a large interest portion, which at the current pace of cuts will keep debt servicing costs at a noticeable level for the coming quarters. Experts agree that the optimal level of interest rates, which would allow for easier breathing for household budgets, will be reached no earlier than the end of this year. Until then, every MPC decision will be closely analyzed for chances of faster cuts, although these hopes often collide with hard data on inflation.

In summary, the decisions of November 2024 were a painful necessity in the macroeconomic situation at the time. Freezing rates at 5.75 percent allowed for controlling price pressure, but the cost of this process was shifted directly onto borrowers. The cycle of cuts, initiated in November 2025, did not bring the expected euphoria because it was spread over time and heavily dependent on factors over which the central bank had no influence. Today, looking back, it is clear that 2024 was a time of difficult choices, and 2025 was a year of slowly emerging from the impasse. The year 2026, on the other hand, is a time of adaptation to a new reality in which cheap credit remains a historical concept, not a current market offer.

Key conclusions from the analysis of recent years:

November 2024: Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent as a response to geopolitical and inflationary threats.
Year 2025: A period of financial stagnation for borrowers, despite signals of weakening inflation.
November 2025: The beginning of a cycle of cuts, which, however, did not bring immediate relief to household budgets.
September 2026: An ongoing adjustment process of the economy, in which interest rates still constitute a significant cost for indebted households.

All these events show that the Polish banking system exhibits great inertia. Borrowers who in 2024 were counting on a quick turn of events had to confront their expectations with hard monetary policy. From the perspective of September 2026, it is clear that the worst for borrowers has likely passed, but the road to full financial stabilization still requires great effort.

It is worth remembering that every MPC decision is preceded by an analysis of data that for the average consumer is often incomprehensible or of little importance in everyday life. However, it is precisely this data – GDP dynamics, CPI index, situation on the currency market – that determines the amount of loan installments. The borrower is the final recipient of decisions made in the quiet of NBP offices, often having no influence on the course of events.

For those wondering if the current situation in 2026 is already a turning point, it is worth citing the voices of experts. Most of them agree that the current cycle of cuts is permanent, but it will certainly not be rapid. Commercial banks show no haste in lowering loan interest rates, which is a natural behavior in an environment of macroeconomic uncertainty. Borrowers must therefore prepare for the fact that the amount of installments will fall gradually, in accordance with the pace imposed by the Monetary Policy Council.

The geopolitical uncertainty that dominated the end of 2024 took a different form in 2026. Now, the market's attention is focused not only on conflicts but also on the pace of economic growth in the eurozone, which directly affects Polish exports, and thus GDP. Changes in these areas are closely monitored by analysts, who use them to adjust their interest rate forecasts.

For the borrower, the most important information remains the fact that every subsequent MPC decision to cut rates is a step towards the normalization of debt costs. Even if these steps are small, in the long term they lead to an improvement in creditworthiness and a real increase in disposable family income. Patience, which is mentioned in the context of the last two years, remains the main survival strategy in the current financial environment.

Could such high installments have been avoided in 2024? From an economic point of view – probably not, given the level of inflation at the time. The MPC had to act decisively to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched. Although the costs of this fight were borne mainly by borrowers, from the perspective of the stability of the country's financial system, the decision to keep rates at 5.75 percent was probably the only possible solution.

In the future, analyzing this period, economists will probably point out how much Polish society was dependent on cheap credit. The years 2024 and 2025 were a period of unlearning how to live on credit, which in the long term may prove to be a healthy foundation for the Polish economy. Of course, for individuals it was painful, but on a macroeconomic scale, it built greater resistance to future shocks.

For those who ask themselves about the future, the forecasts for the end of 2026 are cautiously optimistic. If nothing unforeseen happens on the international stage, we can expect a further, slow decline in the cost of money. However, this will not be a return to the golden times before 2022, but rather a transition to a new equilibrium in which interest rates will reflect the real condition of the economy.

Questions and answers

Why didn't the MPC lower rates earlier than November 2025?

The main reason was high inflation uncertainty and geopolitical factors, in particular the escalation of tensions in Iran, which kept price pressure in the economy. The Monetary Policy Council feared that easing monetary policy too early could trigger a renewed rise in inflation, which is why a wait-and-see strategy was chosen, which lasted nearly a year from the moment of the last stabilization in 2024.

Are the current interest rates in 2026 already optimal?

According to experts quoted in Forbes, the current level of interest rates is not yet optimal for the economy. The process of reaching a level that would significantly relieve household budgets and stimulate investment is stretched over time. Forecasts indicate that we will reach the optimal level, which would ensure the economy's balance without the risk of another inflation spike, no earlier than the end of 2026.

How did the 2024 decision affect my installments?

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent blocked the possibility of a drop in loan installments for a period of 12 months after November 2024. In practice, this meant that borrowers had to pay high interest, and each subsequent installment was a burden on the household budget, while in an alternative scenario, with rate cuts, these costs could have started to decrease earlier. This decision effectively maintained a high cost of debt servicing across the entire banking sector.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.