Interest rates in September 2026: what awaits borrowers?

In brief

July 2026: The RPP kept interest rates at a level that did not bring the rapid installment decreases expected by many borrowers.
Cutting cycle: After a series of reductions started in November 2025, the momentum of changes has clearly slowed down.
2026 Forecast: Experts indicate that interest rates may reach the optimal level for the economy no sooner than the end of 2026.

RPP's position in mid-2026

During its meeting on July 8, 2026, the Monetary Policy Council extinguished the hopes of many borrowers for quick relief in their household budgets. The decision made on that Wednesday was not a surprise to the market, but it definitively set the trend for the entire third quarter, including September. Maintaining interest rates at the current level tightened conditions in the Polish banking sector. The cost of money ceased to be a variable that the market awaited with bated breath. Now, it is a state of permanent suspension.

Banks have no reason to aggressively fight for customers with offers based on cheap credit when the base remains unchanged. For the average mortgage holder, this means one thing: September installments will not budge. The scenario in which sharp cuts bring financial relief has been postponed to an indefinite future. Maintaining rates is a message from the NBP that the fight for price stability remains a priority, even if it comes at the cost of slowing down credit investments.

Analysts who, half a year ago, were counting on a dynamic series of declines, are now tempering expectations. The mechanism triggered in July effectively froze hopes for cheaper money before the end of the year. From the borrower's point of view, the current situation is not so much stagnation as it is a continuation of high debt servicing costs. If anyone was counting on a monetary policy easing in September, they must have been disappointed. The Monetary Policy Council is consistently pursuing a strategy where stabilization is more important than stimulating consumption. In practice, this means that September loan repayment schedules look almost identical to those of August or July. The break in cuts has become a fact that must be taken into account when planning expenses for the coming months.

Historical analysis: From November 2025 to today

Financial market observers cannot speak of surprise, because the September decision of the Monetary Policy Council is a continuation of the stagnation we have known since July. Borrowers counting on a clear easing of monetary policy must arm themselves with patience. The cycle of cuts, which was discussed at the end of last year, has in practice proven to be a process much less linear and noticeable to the average debt holder than optimistic scenarios suggested.

The road to the current point was bumpy and full of hopes that were not always reflected in monthly bank statements. Let's recall what this process looked like in recent months:

November 5, 2025: The Monetary Policy Council made an interest rate cut, which analysts unanimously described as the second autumn "quarter-point cut." It was a long-awaited move intended to set the tone for further changes in monetary policy.
November 6, 2025: Just a day after the RPP decision, economists warned against excessive enthusiasm. Forbes quoted experts indicating that we would reach the optimal interest rate level no sooner than the end of 2026.
December 28, 2025: The fears of skeptics were confirmed. Despite earlier cuts, TVN24 reported that for some loans, installments remained at the previous level, which showed a gap between official announcements and the reality in the wallets of Poles.

Such a state of affairs teaches humility. The mechanism of cuts does not translate into every credit portfolio at the same time and with the same force. Banks, as the history of the last ten months shows, are very cautious about updating interest rates, often neutralizing the effect of RPP decisions through margins or the way WIBOR is calculated. The current situation is hard proof that even with an ongoing cycle of changes, real relief for household budgets is a process stretched over time, not a one-time event that many of us are still waiting for.

Why aren't loan installments falling so quickly?

In September 2026, borrowers did not see relief. NBP interest rates remained at the level set in July, which for most mortgage holders means one thing: the amount of monthly installments has not budged. Hopes for quick relief for household budgets collided with a reality in which cautious monetary policy clearly prevails over market expectations.

Many debtors still look only at the announcements coming from the National Bank of Poland, forgetting about the complex mechanics of the banking sector. The decisions of the Monetary Policy Council are only one piece of the puzzle. The final cost of a loan is determined by the WIBOR rate and the individual bank margin, which do not react automatically to every move by the regulator. Financial institutions, effectively securing their own risk, are in no hurry to instantly lower the cost of money for the client, even if the rates in theory provide some room for it.

History shows that excessive optimism is sometimes premature. As late as October 2025, media, including the Money.pl portal, published analyses suggesting deeper cuts that many borrowers were hoping for. In practice, these predictions often missed the Council's later decisions. The lack of drastic cuts in July 2026 is not a coincidence, but a consequence of a strategy that prioritizes caution over quickly stimulating demand. This situation puts borrowers in a difficult position, where earlier economist forecasts about reaching the optimal rate level only at the end of 2026 are becoming their brutal everyday reality. The loan bill remains high, and the real room for negotiating terms with banks remains very limited.

Economist forecasts for the end of 2026

Excessive optimism in the context of loan installments proved premature. Already on November 6, 2025, experts surveyed by Forbes warned that the road to significantly cheaper money would be long and bumpy. Today's situation confirms those fears. In September 2026, NBP interest rates remain at the level set in July, which for the average borrower means one thing: the monthly burden on the household budget has not budged. Dreams of sharp drops in debt servicing costs must be postponed for later.

The economic situation resembles a slow extinguishing of emotions rather than a dynamic plot twist. July 2026 data clearly shows that the process of easing monetary policy is spread over time, which effectively cools market sentiment. Instead of quick cuts, we received stabilization at a level that remains painful for many wallets. Analyst expectations have long been focused on this specific moment, which is well illustrated by the comparison of forecasts:

Optimal interest rate level according to Forbes — end of 2026 (Forbes, 06.11.2025)
RPP decision to maintain rates — September 2026 (Wiadomości PRO, 04.09.2026)

For borrowers, this means that the time horizon in which they could feel real relief in installments is shifting to the very end of the year. The financial market seems to have priced in this scenario long ago, and the lack of movement from the Monetary Policy Council in September is only a formal confirmation of what was warned about as early as last autumn. Anyone who was counting on a summer gift in the form of lower installments had to go without. The current stagnation is not an accident, but the result of a consistently implemented strategy that puts stability over a quick improvement in lending conditions. We will have to wait at least a few more months for significant changes.

Impact of NBP decisions on household budgets

September 2026 brings disappointment for many borrowers waiting for cheaper money. The Monetary Policy Council maintained the parameters set back in July, which directly translates into freezing the amount of principal and interest installments. The stabilization of interest rates means that for holders of mortgage loans based on variable interest rates, monthly obligations have not budged. The wallets of Poles will not get a breather, and debt servicing costs remain at a level that still forces strict budget discipline on households.

This is not a surprise to analysts who remember earlier signals from the RPP. Decisions made in 2025, such as the November cut, were an attempt to slightly ease monetary policy, but the current state of affairs shows that that optimism was premature. Commercial banks, setting their own margins and offer interest rates, treat the RPP findings of 2025 and 2026 as a hard reference point. In practice, this means there is no room for quick relief for household finances.

The catch lies in the costs of financing investments. They remain at a high level, which blocks not only potential new borrowers but, above all, stifles current consumption among people already paying off their apartments. While the market was counting on a clearer downward move, we are receiving a continuation of the "wait and see" strategy. For an average family, this means that there is no room for assuming lower living costs when planning expenses for autumn 2026. Money remains expensive, and hopes for significant relief in installments must be postponed to an indefinite future. The state of stagnation has become the new normal, to which customers of the banking sector simply have to get used to.

What's next? Calendar of key events

September 2026 puts borrowers in a situation of waiting. The Monetary Policy Council kept rates at the level set in July, which for the average mortgage holder means no real relief in monthly bills. Stabilizing the cost of money is not the end of the discussion about installments, but rather a pause that forces observation of economic fundamentals.

The Council does not operate in a vacuum, and the coming months will be a testing ground for monetary policy. Here is what is currently keeping a finger on the pulse of NBP decisions:

September 2026 is a turning point for assessing the effects of the July decisions. Analysts are checking whether earlier moves have actually slowed price pressure or if the situation requires further intervention.
Subsequent RPP meetings will be fully subordinated to hard data. The main indicators will be current inflation indices and GDP dynamics, which will indicate whether the Polish economy has managed to avoid overheating at the current cost of credit.
The labor market remains a hot point in the debate. The unemployment rate and wage pressure are factors that could prompt the Council to tighten its course or, in the event of an economic slowdown, open the door for policy easing in the fourth quarter.

The truth is brutal. The lack of changes in September is a signal that the central bank does not see room for the quick cuts that thousands of households were counting on. Instead of counting on sudden drops in installments, the market must prepare for a scenario in which the cost of debt servicing will remain at the current, elevated level for a longer time. This is not a time for optimism, but for cold calculation of household budgets in the face of a persistently high reference rate. Every subsequent decision will now result from a very narrow margin of error that the monetary authorities have left themselves.

What this means for you

For borrowers, this means cost stabilization, but without quick relief in their wallets. Savers on deposits gain, while those who counted on a quick drop in loan installments lose. The catch lies in maintaining the cost of money at a level intended to extinguish inflationary pressure over the long term.

Questions and answers

Did loan installments fall in September 2026?

No, the RPP decisions from July 2026 kept rates at a level that did not bring a significant reduction in installments for most borrowers.

When can significant installment reductions be expected?

According to expert forecasts, the optimal interest rate level, conducive to cheaper loans, may be reached no sooner than the end of 2026.

Why didn't previous rate cuts lower all installments?

As reports from the end of 2025 indicated, banking mechanisms mean that not every RPP decision translates automatically into an immediate drop in loan installments.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.