NBP interest rates: Is 5.75 percent the end of stabilization?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept the main NBP reference rate unchanged at 5.75 percent, which means no direct changes to the amount of mortgage installments. This decision confirmed that the central bank's strategy is based on a long-term "wait and see" approach rather than rapid monetary policy easing. From the perspective of September 2026, we already know that this was the moment when hopes for a sharp drop in debt servicing costs in that calendar year were definitively put to rest.

November MPC decision: Stabilization instead of easing

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council demonstrated consistency, which for the real estate market was a signal indicating further stagnation. Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent was not merely a lack of decision, but an active choice of a conservative path. In their communications from that period, Council members pointed to the necessity of fighting inflationary pressure, which still did not allow for safe monetary policy easing.

At that time, the market was divided. Some analysts were hoping for a move toward lower rates, but official MPC communications dampened this enthusiasm. Policymakers in the building on Świętokrzyska Street focused on hard macroeconomic data, ignoring political or social pressure. The "wait and see" strategy became the foundation of their work. In practice, this meant freezing debt servicing costs at a level that was a difficult barrier for many borrowers to overcome.

The move in November 2024 was a continuation of a policy initiated much earlier. The MPC had already held rates in January 2024, and April brought a similar outcome. November was the third important turning point, where the market finally understood that nothing would happen before the end of the year that could bring real relief. Each meeting was analyzed in terms of the risk of fueling price growth, and the Council preferred to play it safe, choosing stability over risky experiments with cuts.

This stance of the Council stemmed from a cold assessment of the situation within the country. Inflation was not subsiding as quickly as assumed in the optimistic scenarios from the beginning of 2024. Policymakers feared that an overly early rate cut would lead to a new upward impulse for energy and service prices. Maintaining the cost of money at 5.75 percent was intended to act as an anchor. Households planning their budgets had to accept that the high cost of credit would become the new normal for many months.

As a result, the November decision defined the atmosphere of late 2024. There was no talk of the breakthrough that debtors were waiting for. Instead, we received a policy of small steps, where every Council meeting ended with a similar statement. The market had to reconcile itself to an extended period of expensive financing, which for many household budgets was the least desirable scenario. It was this moment that determined that 2024 would go down in the history of the Polish economy as a time of high rates, not a time of their long-awaited decline.

Impact of the decision on borrowers' wallets

The mechanism of transferring the November decision to the real financial burdens of citizens was direct and predictable. Maintaining the reference rate at an unchanged level meant that the WIBOR 3M and 6M rates, which determine the interest rate on most mortgage loans, remained in a high range. For a person paying off a loan, this meant that the installment they paid in October did not change in November or in the following months.

Commercial banks, seeing no impulse for changes in NBP monetary policy, kept their margins and offers within existing limits. Borrowers who expected a quick breather had to accept that their monthly debt servicing expenses would remain at a high level. The lack of movement from the MPC at that moment was a form of maintaining the status quo in an economy where inflation still dictated the terms.

It is worth noting that the stabilization of market rates cemented the situation in the market for subsequent months, forcing debtors to continue tightening their belts. This was not a scenario that brought relief, but it at least eliminated the element of uncertainty regarding an unexpected increase in burdens. Borrowers remained in limbo, waiting for signals of a permanent drop in interest rates. In November 2024, it became clear that any forecasts of a "quick return to cheap credit" were premature.

For banks, this situation was favorable. Maintaining high rates while simultaneously stabilizing the economy allowed for better risk management of loan portfolios. Interest margins remained at attractive levels, which improved the financial results of the banking sector. At the same time, debtors, deprived of alternatives, had to service their obligations, which in some cases led to extending loan periods or dipping into safety funds.

From the perspective of September 2026, it is clear that the lack of changes in November 2024 was part of a broader adjustment process. The economy needed time to absorb earlier price shocks. The Monetary Policy Council chose a slow but stable path, which was justified from a macroeconomic point of view. However, for the individual borrower, every month of keeping rates at 5.75 percent was felt in the household budget as a real burden that limited consumption in other sectors.

Inflation and future Council decisions

November 2024 was only a stop on a much longer journey. Inflation still dictated the conditions under which the MPC made further decisions. There was no talk of automatism. Every subsequent month was a balancing act between the desire to stimulate the economy and the risk of fueling prices, which made the Council prefer to play it safe. Today, from the perspective of September 2026, it is clearly visible that that move was part of a broader, cautious strategy.

Inflation remained the key indicator determining future rate cuts, and its fluctuations were analyzed by the Council with almost pharmaceutical precision. Economists pointed to the necessity of monitoring the external environment, which in practice meant that the geopolitical situation – such as uncertainty surrounding the escalation of conflicts, including in Iran – could instantly change the attitude of policymakers. Every signal of rising energy commodity prices was a reason for the MPC to refrain from cuts.

Experts predicted that the optimal level of interest rates could be reached at the earliest in 2026, which cast a shadow on forecasts assuming rapid and aggressive monetary policy easing. This rhetoric effectively dampened market enthusiasm. Even if headlines about "highways to rate cuts" appeared in the media, in reality, the MPC was moving along a very winding road. Borrowers had to prepare for the fact that the cost of money would not fall "automatically."

Decisions were made in the rhythm of macroeconomic data, and these – as the last year shows – did not give a clear signal to break the current course. The process of returning to the inflation target was bumpy. Analyses indicated that the road to stability was not linear. Experts warned that the complexity of this process forced the Council to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Borrowers had to understand that in this game, the economy did not give simple answers. The central bank chose a conservative variant, consciously preferring the error of omission over the risk of too hasty a liberalization of lending conditions.

In November 2025, economists still emphasized that we would reach the optimal level at the earliest at the end of 2026. This approach dominated public discourse throughout 2025. It was clear that the market had to reconcile itself to the pace set by the NBP, not by the expectations of borrowers. Every Council meeting in 2025 was meticulously evaluated, and October 2025 brought the first surprise in the form of an earlier cut, which, however, did not mean the end of problems.

Institutional stance: NBP and market experts

Council members consistently emphasized caution in the process of easing monetary policy in their communications. There was no room for a risky experiment here, even if social sentiment expected a different pace of change. The MPC held firmly to its mandate, which in practice meant that every subsequent decision had to be supported by hard macroeconomic data, not just a desire to relieve debtors.

Market analysts looked at this situation from a completely different perspective than the NBP policymakers. In reports from independent financial institutions, anxiety about external factors, over which domestic monetary policy had negligible influence, increasingly broke through. Risks stemming from the geopolitical situation, with particular emphasis on the escalation in Iran, acted as a brake on optimistic forecasts. The instability of energy commodity prices, caused by conflicts in the Middle East, could instantly undo the central bank's efforts in fighting price pressure.

The whole picture was completed by the extremely complicated process of returning to the inflation target. Analyses indicated that the road to stability was bumpy. Experts warned that the complexity of this process forced the Council to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Borrowers had to understand that in this game, the economy did not give simple answers. The central bank chose a conservative variant, consciously preferring the error of omission over the risk of too hasty a liberalization of lending conditions, which could entrench inflation at an elevated level.

It is worth noting that in July 2026, the discussion about interest rates still revolved around the escalation in Iran. This shows how sensitive Polish monetary policy had become to impulses from abroad. The NBP did not operate in a vacuum. Every decision was a derivative of global tensions, which made predicting future Council moves a task almost impossible for the average borrower.

Financial institutions, such as Parkiet or wGospodarce, in their analyses from July 2026, unanimously indicated that the MPC was still under the pressure of uncertainty. There was no talk of a return to free policy easing. Every move had to be balanced in the context of global oil prices and the political situation in the Middle East. This was the new reality to which all participants in the real estate market in Poland had to adapt.

Comparison of MPC decisions over time (2024-2026)

Looking at the monetary policy of the last two years, a clear demarcation line is visible. The evolution of the MPC's narrative since 2024 is a transition from defensive stabilization to cautious preparations for a cycle of cuts, which only began to be discussed more widely in the second half of 2025. The beginning of 2024 was marked by decision-making lethargy, which was confirmed by subsequent meetings at which no decisions were made. The market had to arm itself with patience.

Here is a summary of key turning points in interest rate policy:

January 2024 — no movement in interest rates.
April 2024 — rates kept unchanged.
November 2024 — reference rate kept at 5.75 percent.
October 2025 — MPC cuts interest rates earlier than expected.
November 2025 — economist forecasts indicating the optimal rate level only at the end of 2026.
December 2025 — highway to interest rate cuts.
July 2026 — subsequent MPC meetings in the face of geopolitical uncertainty and escalation in Iran.

This summary shows that although 5.75 percent in November 2024 seemed like a "freeze" at the time, in reality, it was the last stage before the later, much more dynamic moves by the Council. Borrowers who were counting on a quick breather then had to wait nearly another year for the first real easing. Today's perspective, from September 2026, allows us to evaluate these decisions not as a mistake, but as a very slow process of adjusting the economy to a new, post-inflationary reality.

However, did this cycle of cuts actually bring the relief that debtors were waiting for? Data from 2026 suggest that the joy was premature, and NBP policy remains a hostage to external tensions. Every step toward lower rates was verified by incoming inflation data and tensions in commodity markets. There was no talk of a simple return to low installments. Borrowers became observers of a process that was complicated and full of unexpected plot twists.

Scenarios for the Polish economy

The market no longer lives in November's calm, but in nervous anticipation of signals regarding December decisions. Investors are carefully following three indicators that have become a barometer of sentiment in the Council in recent quarters: GDP dynamics, the condition of the labor market, and variable energy price dynamics. Each of these elements is a separate unknown. Economists who were tempering moods a year ago, claiming that we would reach the optimal level at the earliest at the end of 2026, are today facing a wall of data that does not provide a clear answer.

The prospect of gradually adjusting monetary policy to macroeconomic conditions is inevitable, but the devil is in the pace. If GDP maintains its current growth rate and the labor market does not show signs of overheating, the space for discussing cuts will become real. Skeptics, however, point to external risks, such as a potential escalation of tensions in Iran, which in the past have been able to overturn even the most cautious analyst forecasts.

For borrowers, this is balancing on the edge. The lack of upward movement is pleasing, but the lack of downward movement frustrates those who were counting on a faster return to cheaper money. It remains to wait for the Council's meetings, which will ultimately decide whether the next winter will bring relief in installments or continued persistence in the current stagnation of credit costs. The economy in 2026 is a completely different place than in 2024, but the challenges for MPC policymakers have remained largely the same.

It is worth remembering that every interest rate decision affects the profitability of savings. Savers on deposits were beneficiaries of the high-rate policy for these two years. This created a natural conflict of interest between debtors and capital holders. The Monetary Policy Council had to balance between these groups, which further complicated the decision-making process. In 2026, this conflict is still visible, and every decision to cut rates is perceived by savers as a deterioration of their financial situation.

Finally, the answer to the question in the title is complex. November 2024 was not the "end of stabilization" in the sense of a sudden plot twist, but it was the moment when stabilization was institutionalized. It became a permanent state from which we emerged very slowly, almost imperceptibly, under the influence of external factors. Borrowers had to learn to live with uncertainty that lasted much longer than anyone assumed in 2024. It was a time when the Polish economy learned to function in conditions of elevated capital costs.

What this means for you

Keeping rates at 5.75 percent in 2024 meant predictability for borrowers, but also no relief in monthly installments. Savers on deposits gained, as they could count on relatively high interest rates, but at the cost of higher capital costs for companies planning investments. This situation forced households to redefine their financial plans for 2025 and 2026.

Understanding that the NBP does not make decisions based on the individual needs of borrowers was a key lesson for many people. The economy does not react to requests, but to hard indicators. November 2024 was a confirmation of this rule. Every zloty spent on a higher installment was the result of a decision to fight inflation, which in the long term was intended to ensure price stability, although it was painful in the short term.

Questions and answers

Why didn't the MPC cut rates in November 2024?

The Council adopted a precautionary strategy, assessing that inflationary pressure and external uncertainty did not yet allow for safe monetary policy easing.

Did my loan installments increase after this decision?

No, keeping rates at 5.75 percent meant that the cost of money for banks remained unchanged, so mortgage installments remained at their current level.

When can real rate cuts be expected?

Economist forecasts indicated that the cycle of cuts would be spread over time, and the market would move toward the optimal rate level even until the end of 2026.

Does the geopolitical situation affect rate decisions?

Yes, the instability of energy commodity prices, caused by conflicts in the Middle East, including the escalation in Iran, was a significant factor slowing down the process of interest rate cuts in Poland.

Was November 2024 the end of rate stabilization?

It was not the end, but the beginning of a long waiting period, in which every subsequent decision was dependent on incoming macroeconomic data and external tensions.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts are derived from the sources provided above.