NBP interest rates: Why did the MPC freeze decisions in 2024?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept interest rates unchanged, choosing a wait-and-see strategy in the face of the macroeconomic uncertainty at the time. This decision provided stabilization for the loan installments of millions of Poles, ending a period of intense changes in the cost of money. The main factor hindering rate cuts was the inflation reading, which at that moment exceeded the NBP's inflation target assumptions, forcing policymakers to maintain a restrictive stance.

November 2024: A strategic pause by the Monetary Policy Council

The beginning of November 2024 in Polish monetary policy was marked by a defensive approach. The decision to leave rates unchanged was not merely an expression of caution, but a concrete reaction to data flowing from the economy. Inflation at that time remained in a trend that made it impossible to safely loosen credit conditions without the risk of a renewed price surge. The Council, analyzing the dynamics of wage growth and private consumption, concluded that any cuts would be a signal for the premature relaxation of household budgetary discipline.

For the banking sector, this meant a freeze on reference rates, upon which the interest rates of most variable-rate mortgage loans depend. The mechanism of monetary policy transmission was deliberately slowed down at this point. Banks, operating in an environment of high rates, maintained their margins, and borrowers stopped experiencing monthly, drastic increases in installments. It was a time when the market became accustomed to the cost of money oscillating around the level set by the Council.

The lack of changes in November 2024 became a reference point for all economic analyses for the following twelve months. Analysts noted that the MPC stopped reacting to current, short-term fluctuations, focusing instead on long-term stabilization. Instead of actively stimulating the economy through cheap credit, the priority was placed on protecting the purchasing power of the zloty. In this way, the Council imposed a pace on the market where the predictability of debt service costs became more important than the level of interest rates themselves.

During that period, beyond the inflation data itself, the decision was also influenced by forecasts regarding a global slowdown. The Polish economy, being part of an open European market, could not afford to isolate itself from trends prevailing in the eurozone or the United States. Keeping rates unchanged was therefore a tough compromise between the desire to support GDP growth and the necessity of stifling inflationary pressure, which was still generating systemic risk.

From freezing to loosening: The breakthrough of November 2025

A breakthrough in monetary policy occurred exactly one year after the period of greatest anticipation. On November 5, 2025, the Monetary Policy Council officially initiated a cycle of cuts. This decision, described in financial media as the "second autumn quarter," confirmed that the central bank had obtained sufficient evidence of the permanent fading of inflationary processes.

The change in the MPC's stance was the result of an in-depth analysis of macroeconomic data, which for many months had indicated a decline in the dynamics of goods and services prices. Bankier.pl, in its reports from that period, emphasized that this move was a long-awaited signal to the market that the cycle of restrictive policy had come to an end. While November 2024 was a time of blockade, November 2025 opened a path to the gradual reduction of financial burdens for mortgage holders.

The mathematical precision with which the MPC communicated its subsequent moves was intended to calm financial markets. Each subsequent cut was thought out so as not to cause a sharp weakening of the zloty on international currency markets. Experts noted at the time that a change in the rate by a so-called "quarter" of a percentage point is a safe way to test the economy's flexibility under conditions of lower interest rates.

However, despite the optimism flowing from the decision to loosen policy, the analytical environment remained restrained. Forbes, in an analysis from November 6, 2025, pointed out that the road to the optimal level for the economy was still long. An economist cited by the portal warned that the real effects of the cuts in Poles' wallets would be spread over time, and the process of reaching the inflation target could not be forced. For borrowers, this meant the end of the era of sharp hikes, but it did not mean an immediate return to the times before the period of record inflation.

The impact of NBP decisions on borrowers' wallets

The stabilization of installments brought about by the freezing of rates in 2024 allowed many households to avoid financial collapse. During that period, when the installments of loans based on WIBOR indicators reached their historical maximums, the Council's decision to maintain the status quo acted like a fuse. Borrowers gained time to adjust their household budgets to the new market realities, and banks avoided a massive wave of non-performing obligations.

True relief came with the cycle of cuts started in the autumn of 2025. Each subsequent decision to reduce rates by 25 basis points translated into a smaller interest installment. It is worth noting, however, that the impact of these changes varied depending on the type of loan and the time after which banks updated their interest rates. For many clients, the period between November 2024 and November 2025 was a time of arduous waiting for a signal from the central bank that the situation had returned to control.

It should be emphasized that the current level of financing costs is still higher than in the pre-pandemic years. Forecasts from TotalMoney.pl in July 2026 clearly indicate that although installments have fallen, the market remains extremely sensitive to external factors. Borrowers who counted on a quick return to "cheap loans" had to verify their expectations. From the perspective of personal finance, the last two years have been a lesson in interest rate risk management, which has permanently changed the approach of Poles to taking on debt.

The credit market in 2026 operates in a new reality. Banks, having learned from the experiences of 2024-2025, approach creditworthiness assessments with greater reserve. Even with falling rates, capital requirements and safety buffers remain at a high level. This makes access to capital more selective today, and MPC decisions are only one element of the puzzle that anyone planning to take on a long-term obligation must take into account.

Geopolitics and the Polish economy: The challenges of 2026

The year 2026 brought new challenges that effectively limited the Monetary Policy Council's room for maneuver. The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran became the main factor determining interest rate decisions in the middle of the year. July 2026 was a moment when the MPC again kept rates unchanged, which for the market was a clear signal: national security and currency stability are currently a priority over growth stimulation.

The conflict in the Middle East, by its nature, directly affects oil and gas prices, and these in turn are of decisive importance for imported inflation. Poland, as a country highly dependent on energy prices, must conduct a very conservative policy in such conditions. When the zloty is under geopolitical pressure, any rate cut could lead to its excessive weakening, which in turn would generate inflationary pressure through rising prices of imported raw materials.

The Monetary Policy Council, analyzing the situation in July 2026, had to take these very dependencies into account. Maintaining interest rates was the only way to anchor inflation expectations in the face of global uncertainty. Media, including Parkiet and INNPoland.pl, repeatedly pointed out at that time the close correlation between the situation in Iran and the quotations of the Polish currency. The stability of rates thus became a shield intended to protect the Polish economy from external supply shocks.

For NBP policymakers, this situation is exceptionally difficult. On one hand, there is internal pressure for further monetary policy loosening, which would support investment and consumption. On the other hand, external factors, over which the central bank has no influence, force it to remain on the defensive. Every move by the MPC must now be preceded by a multi-variant simulation of the effects of global conflicts. This makes monetary policy in 2026 much more complicated than in the stable times before 2024.

Forecasts for the end of 2026: When will the cut cycle end?

September 2026 poses the question to analysts about the final shape of the cut cycle. In light of data from the last year, it is becoming clear that the road to the optimal level is a non-linear process. Forecasts published in April 2026 by Direct Money indicated numerous scenarios in which macroeconomic variables could rule out further cuts.

The main limitation remains inflation, which, despite a downward trend, shows high resistance to declines in service categories. If we add to this the risk associated with energy prices, which were written about in the context of US-Iran tensions, we get a picture of an economy in which rapid money loosening is simply risky. Forbes, based on analyses from November 2025, consistently maintains that we will reach the inflation target at the earliest at the end of 2026.

Can we therefore expect the end of the cycle this year? Most economists lean toward the thesis that the MPC will continue the "small steps" strategy. Instead of sharp moves, it is likely that the current pace will be maintained, provided nothing happens that radically changes the situation in commodity markets. Each subsequent decision will be the result of a balance between the need to support the economy and the necessity of maintaining the stability of the zloty.

For the average borrower, this means that one should not expect "cheap money" in the coming months. Stabilization of rates at the current level is the most likely scenario, which will allow the MPC to maintain a safety buffer. The game for inflation, started back in 2024, is still ongoing, and the margin of error for policymakers remains minimal. Any announcements regarding a quick return to the rate levels of 2020-2021 should be treated with great caution, as the economic foundations have undergone a permanent change.

Summary: Are we already at the optimal point?

The optimal point toward which the Monetary Policy Council is striving is a dynamic concept. It is not a rigid value, but a level of rates that balances the fight against inflation with the need to maintain the pace of economic growth. Looking back to November 2024, it is clear that the decision to freeze rates was the foundation upon which current stability was built. Without that move, in the face of growing uncertainty, the economy could have fallen into an inflationary spiral, the effects of which would have been much more noticeable to society than high loan installments.

Currently, the MPC's actions remain hostage to factors over which the central bank has limited influence. Geopolitics and energy prices, which were written about so much in the context of July 2026, force the Council to be exceptionally vigilant. There is no talk of returning to the era of cheap credit without a guarantee that inflation has been permanently pacified. The strategy that the MPC is consistently implementing is based on the assumption that predictability is more valuable than short-term benefits.

For millions of Poles, the last two years have been a time of adaptation. The decision from the autumn of 2024 effectively ended the era of sharp changes in the cost of money, which allowed for the stabilization of household budgets. Although experts still argue about whether we have reached the optimal point, the most important information for borrowers is the lack of sharp plot twists. We are not in a phase of dynamic loosening, but in a phase of control, which for the stability of the financial system is currently the safest solution.

Geopolitical risk still hangs in the air, but for borrowers, the most important thing is the calm that has prevailed in interest rate tables. Is this enough to talk about the success of monetary policy? We will only know the answer to this question after the full closure of the cycle at the end of 2026. At this moment, stability remains the most important asset of the Polish economy, and each subsequent quarter brings confirmation of the validity of the strategy chosen two years ago.

What this means for you

For the average Pole, the MPC's decisions from the last two years mean a transition from a period of high uncertainty to a phase of slow but stable reduction in loan costs. Borrowers are gaining, however, global tensions in 2026 mean that "cheap money" still remains in the sphere of forecasts, not certainties. If you are planning to take out a loan, you must remember that the current situation is the result of months of fighting for stability, and not a return to the era of zero interest rates.

Questions and answers

Will interest rates in Poland continue to fall in 2026?

Experts point out that although the cut cycle is ongoing, the geopolitical situation, including US-Iran relations, forces great caution. Reaching the optimal level of interest rates may be postponed to the very end of 2026.

How did the MPC's decision from November 2024 affect loans?

Keeping rates in November 2024 provided borrowers with predictability. This decision effectively ended the period of sharp installment increases, stabilizing the market in the face of high macroeconomic uncertainty.

Why did the MPC not decide to cut rates in July 2026?

The decision to keep rates was dictated by pressure on the zloty exchange rate and external risk. Armed conflicts affect global financial markets and commodity prices, which forces the central bank to maintain a restrictive monetary policy.

Is inflation still the main challenge for the MPC?

Yes, the process of reaching the inflation target is non-linear. Every attempt to cut rates too quickly encounters resistance resulting from the need to maintain currency stability and fight persistent inflation in the service sector.

What should borrowers prepare for in the coming months?

Borrowers should prepare for the continuation of the "small steps" strategy. This means that one should not expect sharp drops in installments, but rather a slow stabilization of debt service costs in conditions of high global volatility.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.