2024 MPC decision: How did it affect your loan in 2026?

Maintaining interest rates in November 2024 was a key moment of stabilization that preceded the easing cycle started in 2025, directly influencing the current level of loan installments in August 2026. This decision by the Monetary Policy Council meant that for an average mortgage of 400,000 PLN, your installment today is about 240 PLN higher than if the central bank had started loosening monetary policy as early as the fourth quarter of 2024. This cost of "freezing" money became a permanent item in the household budget for many Polish families, which in August 2026 still determines the ability to save.

November 2024 – foundations of the NBP decision

On November 6, 2024, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged. This decision closed the door to any downward adjustments, which at that moment was a signal to the market that fighting inflation remained a priority over supporting borrowers. The Council members, analyzing core inflation data, concluded that a premature move could lead to a secondary wave of price increases for goods and services.

For a mortgage holder, 2024 was a period of tightening the belt. Every month of keeping rates at a high level meant that WIBOR 3M – the main component of variable interest rates – did not budge. Borrowers who expected relief had to come to terms with the fact that the cost of capital would remain high. The decision of November 6, 2024, acted as a safety brake for the economy, but at the same time as a burden for household wallets.

Looking at the situation from the perspective of August 2026, it is clear that that period was a time of adaptation. The financial market priced the risk as high, which translated into higher offer margins for commercial banks in subsequent quarters. If the MPC had decided to cut rates in November 2024, today's financial landscape would be much more unstable, and loan installments – although theoretically lower – would be subject to more violent fluctuations under the influence of later geopolitical turmoil.

That decision built the resilience of the banking system. Banks, having a stable cost of money, could better manage their loan portfolios. For the average client, however, this meant no opportunity to feel a decrease in the installment at a time when consumer inflation began to slowly decelerate. It was precisely then, at the end of 2024, that decisions were made to redefine expenses in many Polish households, which lasted for the next dozen or so months.

The 2025 easing cycle and new dynamics

The year 2025 brought the long-awaited breakthrough. The first signals of a change in the attitude of the Monetary Policy Council members appeared in the middle of the year, but the real momentum of cuts occurred in November 2025. As reported by Bankier.pl at the time, the decision of November 5, 2025, was the second "autumn quarter-point," which confirmed the start of the monetary policy easing cycle.

For borrowers, this was the relief they had been waiting for for months. A 25-basis-point rate cut translated into a real, albeit gradual, reduction in the monthly installment. With a 400,000 PLN loan for 25 years, a quarter-percentage-point rate cut meant a reduction in the installment of about 65 PLN. Although this amount seems small on a single-month scale, on an annual scale it provided savings of nearly 800 PLN.

Market enthusiasm was quickly cooled by economists. Experts quoted by Forbes on November 6, 2025, warned that the road to an optimal interest rate level is long and full of challenges. Their forecasts assumed that full stabilization of expectations would only come at the end of 2026. Today we know that this caution was fully justified. The easing cycle, initiated in the autumn of 2025, was not a linear decline in borrowing costs. It was rather an adaptive process in which the central bank had to balance between the desire to support indebted Poles and the need to maintain a stable zloty exchange rate.

It is worth noting that the dynamics of the installment decline in 2025 were not as rapid as the growth in previous years. Commercial banks, hedging against uncertainty, did not lower loan interest rates at a one-to-one pace with MPC decisions. Each basis point of the cut was analyzed by banks in terms of credit risk, which meant that the real feeling of improvement in the financial condition of borrowers was delayed by about two to three months from the date of the Council's decision.

August 2026 – geopolitical brakes

In August 2026, the situation of borrowers became a hostage to events over which the MPC has no direct control. Tensions between the USA and Iran, widely reported by the media in July 2026, including "Parkiet" and INNPoland.pl, exerted enormous pressure on the national currency. The zloty, on the defensive, forces the central bank to keep rates at levels that, under other conditions, might already be subject to further cuts. The weakening of the zloty threatens a surge in imported inflation, which in practice means an increase in the prices of fuel, energy, and goods imported from abroad. The Monetary Policy Council, operating under conditions reported by wGospodarce on July 8, 2026, must walk on thin ice. Any hasty cut in current conditions could be negatively received by financial markets, leading to an outflow of foreign capital from Poland, which would further weaken our currency.

Mechanisms affecting your installment

Understanding the mechanism of a variable-rate loan requires breaking the installment down into its components. The installment consists of the bank's margin and the reference rate, i.e., WIBOR. The margin is fixed for the entire duration of the contract and constitutes the bank's profit. The reference rate is variable and depends on MPC decisions and sentiment in the interbank market.

When the Council keeps rates unchanged, as it did in November 2024, WIBOR remains at a relatively high level. Banks have no basis to lower loan interest rates because the cost of acquiring capital by them on the interbank market does not fall. This is precisely why maintaining rates in 2024 was a direct cost for the borrower – the installment did not decrease, even though inflation in the economy was slowly decelerating.

Only the 2025 easing cycle really affected WIBOR. When the MPC lowers the reference rate, banks update the interest rates on their loan portfolios. In 2026, this mechanism works more slowly than in previous years. This is the effect of so-called "market rigidity." Banks, faced with geopolitical uncertainty, prefer to keep higher interest rates to hedge against the risk of client insolvency in the event of a sudden economic downturn.

For a person with a 500,000 PLN loan, the difference between the 2024 rate and today's August 2026 rate is noticeable, but it is not a revolution. It is estimated that at the current rate level, the installment is about 10-12% lower compared to the peaks from the period of highest inflation. However, this is not a level that allows for a full relaxation of the household budget. Many households are still feeling the effects of the earlier high interest rates, which ate up a significant portion of savings in 2023-2024.

Forecasts for the last quarter of 2026

Looking to the future, the end of 2026 remains a mystery. A Direct Money analysis from April 2026 pointed to a number of structural challenges that the MPC will have to face in the second half of the year. The main one is the labor market. If wages grow faster than productivity, wage pressure may maintain core inflation, which in turn will force the MPC to keep rates at a higher level, even if the geopolitical situation improves.

Economists point to one more aspect: GDP growth data. If the economy shows signs of a clear slowdown in the third quarter of 2026, the Council may be forced to provide monetary stimulus through rate cuts, even under high external pressure. This would be a classic dilemma between fighting inflation and fighting recession. For the borrower, this would mean a chance for lower installments, but at the cost of a general deterioration of the economic situation, which carries the risk of job loss.

August 2026 is therefore a time for taking stock. The November 2024 decision, although it seemed like just a freeze at the time, is now seen as part of a larger puzzle. Without it, the process of exiting high rates could have been much more violent and risky for the stability of the zloty. Currently, the market does not expect sudden moves. Most analysts quoted by TotalMoney.pl lean towards a scenario of a stable pause in the third quarter of 2026, with possible minor downward adjustments at the end of the year, provided that the situation in the Middle East does not escalate further.

The impact of consumer sentiment on MPC decisions cannot be ignored. If Poles, faced with high loan installments, drastically limit consumption, this could affect the decline in inflation faster than the central bank predicts. This is a feedback loop that economists cannot fully predict. Every additional billion zlotys that remains in the wallets of Poles thanks to lower installments is a potential pro-inflationary factor.

What does this mean for your wallet?

For the average borrower, the conclusions from the last two years are quite brutal: patience in the central bank's monetary policy translates into a slow process of feeling relief. Loan installments did not fall at the pace they grew in 2022-2023. Instead of a quick return to low debt service costs, we received a long period of stabilization at an elevated level.

In practice, this means that borrowers who decided to overpay their principal in 2024 are in a better situation today than those who only waited for rate cuts. Overpayments made during the period when rates were high permanently reduced the principal remaining to be repaid, which now, with falling rates, gives a double benefit: a smaller interest amount at a lower interest rate.

August 2026 is a time to audit household finances. Since you cannot count on a sudden drop in installments, it is worth checking whether the bank offers better margin conditions or whether refinancing the loan at another bank will bring savings. The loan market in 2026 is more competitive than in 2024, which gives room for negotiation, provided the client's credit history is impeccable.

Experts point to a specific profitability threshold for mortgage refinancing in 2026. If your current loan has a margin above 2.5 percentage points, and you can get an offer on the market with a margin below 2.0 percentage points, the refinancing operation makes economic sense. Ancillary costs – such as property valuation, court fees, or early repayment fees at the old bank – usually pay for themselves within 18-24 months at the current interest rate level. However, if the difference in the margin is less than 0.3 percentage points, transaction costs may outweigh the potential gains from a lower installment.

For those considering an overpayment, August 2026 is the moment to recalculate the profitability of this move against term deposits. If the loan interest rate, after taking into account the margin and WIBOR, is higher than the net interest rate of deposits or treasury bonds available on the market, overpayment is the most logical mathematical step. In current conditions, where rates are in a phase of slow decline, overpaying a loan is one of the few methods for a "guaranteed profit" on an annual scale, equal to the loan interest rate.

It is also worth paying attention to "loan transfer" offers with a 5-year fixed rate guarantee. Banks in 2026 began to propose such solutions more often, seeing that clients are tired of the uncertainty resulting from MPC decisions. Although the fixed rate is usually slightly higher than the current variable interest rate, it provides "peace of mind" in case geopolitical factors force the MPC to raise rates again in 2027. This is a proposal for people with low risk tolerance who prefer predictability over potential but uncertain gains from a further drop in interest rates.

In summary, August 2026 in the world of mortgages is a period where "passive waiting" for MPC decisions is the least profitable strategy. Active margin management, analysis of refinancing costs, and regular principal overpayments are the only tools that allow you to really feel the difference in your wallet. The decisions of 2024 taught us that the central bank will not always act at the pace expected by borrowers, which is why responsibility for the household budget must rest to a greater extent on the shoulders of the interested parties themselves.

Questions and answers

Why are interest rates not falling faster in 2026?

The main reason is the pressure on the zloty caused by geopolitical tensions, in particular the situation between the USA and Iran, which forces the MPC to exercise great caution so as not to allow imported inflation to rise.

Was the November 2024 decision wrong?

No, it was a decision on stabilization that allowed for the safe start of the easing cycle in November 2025, adjusting the economy to new conditions and avoiding an inflationary shock.

When to expect reaching the optimal rate level?

According to economists' forecasts published in November 2025, the optimal interest rate level has a chance to be reached at the earliest by the end of 2026, provided that external factors allow for the continuation of the easing cycle.

How does the geopolitical situation affect my loan installment?

International conflicts weaken the zloty, which increases the risk of inflation. In response to the weakening of the currency, the MPC must keep rates at a higher level, which prevents commercial banks from lowering mortgage interest rates faster.

What to expect from the next Council meetings in 2026?

The market expects a continuation of the policy of caution. Sudden changes are unlikely unless macroeconomic data from the labor market or inflation indicators show significant deviations from current trends, which would force the Council to change its rhetoric.

Is it worth refinancing a loan now?

In August 2026, competition between banks is greater than in 2024. If your margin is above 2.5%, it is worth comparing the offer with the competition, because the loan margin is one of the few elements that the borrower has real influence over. The profitability threshold is a difference of at least 0.5 percentage points in the margin.

Concluding the considerations on the loan situation in August 2026, it should be emphasized that every wallet is different. Analyzing your own financial capabilities based on hard data, and not just media headlines, is the key to surviving the period of high debt service costs. The MPC is doing its job by securing the system, but it is the borrower who must do their job by optimizing the costs of their debt. In 2026, there is no room for passivity if the goal is a real reduction in monthly burdens. Every decision about overpayment or refinancing, made based on cold calculation, brings us closer to the moment when the loan will become a smaller burden, regardless of what the Monetary Policy Council announces at the next meeting. The stabilization discussed in November 2024 is in full swing, but it is up to us whether we use this time to improve our own situation or just to wait for the central bank's moves. In August 2026, knowledge of market mechanisms is more valuable than ever before, because the market has ceased to be predictable in a linear way and has become a hostage to global variables that each of us influences through our purchasing and financial decisions. Do not wait for a better tomorrow if you can improve your current loan conditions right now by using available market tools.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts are derived from the sources provided above.