Interest rates at 5.75 percent: Is the 2024 decision already a thing of the past?

In November 2024, the MPC maintained the reference rate at 5.75 percent, which set a stable foundation for monetary policy, which in 2026 is still struggling with external pressure, including tensions between the USA and Iran. This choice, although interpreted at the time as a technical pause in the cycle, created a rigid framework for the Council's actions during a period when global volatility in commodity markets forces the Polish central bank to take a defensive stance. Today, analyzing exchange rates and futures contract valuations, it is clear that the decision from two years ago was not just a temporary correction, but an expression of strategic uncertainty in the face of escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

November 2024: The foundation of interest rate stabilization

The autumn of 2024 was a period in which the Polish economy was trying to find a new equilibrium point. The Monetary Policy Council, meeting on November 6, decided to maintain the reference rate at 5.75 percent. This decision, widely reported by TVN24, ended a period of speculation regarding potential cuts. At the time, no one assumed that this level would become such a permanent reference point, acting as an anchor for future monetary actions.

An analysis of that period points to the priority of fighting inflation while maintaining the stability of the zloty. Members of the Council, observing macroeconomic data, feared easing policy too early, which could have led to a reactivation of price pressure. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent became a message directed at the markets: the NBP does not intend to risk destabilizing the financial system.

From the perspective of two years, the August afternoons of 2026 allow for a cooler assessment of that move. At the time, it was not just an entry in the meeting minutes, but a signal to commercial banks on how to price mortgage loans. The foundation built in the autumn of 2024, however, proved more demanding for market participants than originally assumed. Instead of a quick return to cheap money, borrowers received a long waiting period in the shadow of stable but high debt service costs.

The decision from November 2024 did not function in a vacuum. It was a response to the inflation indicators of the time, which, despite a downward trend, remained above the NBP target. The market, waiting for signals for cuts, had to revise its expectations. This adaptation process lasted for months, shaping the behavior of consumers and entrepreneurs who, in the face of unchanged interest rates, had to redefine their investment plans.

The evolution of monetary policy: From 2024 to 2026

The road from the autumn of 2024 to August 2026 was full of challenges that forced the Monetary Policy Council to frequently change its rhetoric. After the November stabilization, the market had to wait almost a year for the next significant move. Only November 2025 brought the long-awaited rate cut, which Bankier.pl noted as the second autumn correction in the monetary cycle. It was a breakthrough moment that gave hope for faster easing.

These hopes were, however, quickly verified by the reality of the first quarter of 2026. The public debate in March, described by INFOR.PL, focused on the dilemma: profits for borrowers versus losses for savers. This classic economic dispute took on a completely new dimension in 2026. Instead of focusing solely on domestic inflation, attention shifted toward geopolitics, which directly affected the pace of changes in the cost of money.

A comparison of key dates shows the dynamics of these changes:
- November 2024: Maintenance of the 5.75 percent rate (TVN24).
- November 2025: Rate cut as a result of the autumn correction (Bankier.pl).
- March 2026: Debate on the impact of changes on Poles' wallets (INFOR.PL).
- July 2026: Suspension of cuts in the face of USA-Iran tensions (Parkiet).

Each of these dates is not just a change of a number in a table, but a real shift in the burden of responsibility for economic stability. In the spring of 2026, Direct Money forecasts indicated a possible further path of easing, but the events of the summer excluded this scenario. The zloty, subjected to external pressure, became the main reason why the MPC had to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. This mechanism is simple: a weak currency with rising energy commodity prices automatically drives up inflation, which makes rate cuts impossible without risking price stability.

Currently, in August 2026, the situation looks almost as if history has come full circle. The 5.75 percent level is once again a reference point, and any hopes for radical changes have been deferred. What was perceived in 2025 as a path to normalization is today treated as a necessary defense. The MPC, operating in such an uncertain environment, cannot afford a mistake that could cost the loss of control over the zloty exchange rate.

Geopolitics and MPC decisions in 2026

July 2026 brought an escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran, which dominated the discussion on monetary policy in Poland. Media, including "Parkiet" and INNPoland.pl, pointed unequivocally to the direct link between the situation in the Middle East and the lack of interest rate cuts in the country. What is a distant conflict for the average observer is a direct threat to the stability of the zloty for MPC members.

The mechanism of transmitting geopolitical risk to Polish loan installments is direct. The USA-Iran conflict causes a rise in crude oil prices on global markets. Higher energy commodity prices translate into higher production and transport costs, which in turn fuels consumer inflation in Poland. When inflation rises and the zloty loses value against major currencies, the NBP loses the space to cut interest rates.

Consequently, the MPC's decisions from July 2026, which confirmed the maintenance of rates, were a logical consequence of these processes. As reported by wGospodarce, the council had no choice – it had to react to an external supply shock. Maintaining the cost of money at a high level is intended to discourage investors from withdrawing capital from Poland, which could further weaken our currency.

This situation shows how much the Polish economy has become a hostage to global sentiment. Two years ago, in November 2024, data from the domestic backyard were key. Today, in August 2026, the amount of loan installments is largely determined by the dynamics of events in the Persian Gulf region. This is a new reality to which both analysts and borrowers must get used to.

One cannot ignore the influence that investment banks and foreign funds have on the Council's decisions. They observe every move of the MPC through the prism of currency spreads. If the MPC were to cut rates too sharply, it would trigger an immediate sell-off of the zloty, which would be an inflationary catastrophe for an economy importing raw materials. Therefore, despite social pressure for cheaper loans, the MPC remains unyielding. This is not a matter of a lack of desire to help borrowers, but the necessity of choosing the lesser evil in conditions of growing international uncertainty.

The borrower's situation in August 2026

For a mortgage holder, August 2026 is a time of uncertainty. Hopes for quick drops in installments, which appeared with every piece of information about autumn corrections in 2025, were brutally verified by the July NBP announcements. Maintaining interest rates at a high level means that debt service costs remain at a level that is a significant burden for many families.

A TotalMoney.pl analysis from July 13, 2026, clearly indicates that borrowers should not count on quick relief. Every announcement flowing from the NBP headquarters on Świętokrzyska Street in Warsaw is now analyzed in terms of rhetoric regarding external risk. If the announcement mentions "geopolitical tensions," the market interprets this as a signal that cuts can be forgotten for the coming months.

The situation of debtors is difficult in that they have no influence on the factors that determine their monthly installments. The dependence on decisions made in Washington or Tehran seems abstract, but in the world of globalized finance, it is all too real. A borrower in Poland pays a "geopolitical tax" in every installment of their loan.

It is worth noting the attitude of commercial banks. Instead of offering real support, these institutions maintain high margins, arguing this with credit risk associated with the unstable economic situation. For a debtor, this means a double blow: high WIBOR and difficulties in debt restructuring. In this context, the stability of November 2024 appears today as the beginning of a long marathon in which the finish line keeps moving over time.

Forecasts and prospects for the end of 2026

Forecasting in the current environment is an activity fraught with a high risk of error. Analysts who, as recently as April 2026, based on data published by Direct Money, looked at the second half of the year with optimism, are today revising their models. The main risk factor remains the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which could affect commodity prices in an unpredictable way.

The baseline scenario for the end of 2026 assumes maintaining interest rates at the current level. This means that 5.75 percent may stay with us longer than anyone assumed in 2024. Financial markets are already discounting this variant, as can be seen in the quotes of interest rate futures (FRA). Investors are not assuming aggressive cuts, focusing instead on hedging against currency volatility.

However, there is also an alternative scenario in which the MPC may be forced to raise rates. If the escalation in Iran were to lead to a sharp jump in oil prices above the level of 100 dollars per barrel, the pressure on the zloty could become so great that the NBP would have to react by tightening policy. Although this is a pessimistic scenario, it must be taken into account by anyone who manages a household budget based on a variable-rate loan.

For savers, the current situation is paradoxically beneficial. High interest rates translate into more attractive interest on deposits and savings accounts. However, this profit is often offset by inflation, which, in conditions of rising fuel and energy prices, does not want to fall to the target. The economy is in a state of a kind of "freeze," in which no one makes bold investment decisions, waiting for an improvement in sentiment on the international arena.

Summary: Why is the MPC holding back on cuts?

The decision from November 2024 to maintain the reference rate at 5.75 percent was the first in a series of steps that define the Polish financial reality in 2026. The Monetary Policy Council, despite social pressure and market expectations, consistently implements a defensive strategy. Looking at this issue from the end of August 2026 shows that caution is currently the most highly valued commodity at the central bank.

The reasons for this state of affairs are complex, but they boil down to protecting the zloty. In a world where armed conflicts affect commodity valuations, emerging market currencies, to which Poland is classified, are particularly sensitive to capital outflows. The MPC understands perfectly well that any hasty interest rate cut could be perceived as a weakness, leading to a weakening of the PLN exchange rate.

Such a policy, although costly for borrowers, is intended to prevent a scenario in which inflation spirals out of control. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent is the price for peace that market participants pay to avoid even greater turbulence in the future. The Council is playing for time, observing the development of the situation in the world's flashpoints.

It is worth remembering that the economy is a system of connected vessels. MPC decisions are not made in a vacuum, but in a dense network of international dependencies. In 2026, when global tensions become an everyday occurrence, maintaining a stable monetary policy course seems to be the only rational way out. Whether this approach will stand the test of time, we will find out in the coming months. Currently, however, 5.75 percent remains the hard foundation on which the Polish financial system rests.

What this means for you

For the average Pole, this means the continued maintenance of loan service costs at a stable, albeit high, level. This situation creates a clear divide: savers benefit, as they can count on real profits from deposits, while borrowers must come to terms with the lack of quick drops in installments. Global geopolitical tensions act as a brake that blocks the space for bolder moves by the central bank, which in practice means that the near financial future depends more on political decisions made thousands of kilometers from Warsaw than on domestic economic results.

Questions and answers

Were interest rates cut in July 2026?

No, the MPC refrained from cuts in July 2026, reacting to the pressure on the zloty caused by USA-Iran tensions.

When did the MPC last cut interest rates?

The last significant cut took place in November 2025, which was the second autumn correction in this cycle.

How does the situation in Iran affect my loan installments?

Geopolitical tensions weaken the zloty, which forces the MPC to maintain higher interest rates to protect the value of the currency, which directly translates into a lack of decrease in loan installments.

Do forecasts for August 2026 assume quick changes?

Forecasts for August 2026 indicate a conservative stance of the Council and no grounds for a sharp easing of monetary policy.

Why is November 2024 so important for today's situation?

It was then that the MPC set the foundation for stabilization at the 5.75 percent level, which to this day determines the framework for the central bank's actions in the face of external shocks.

Do commercial banks offer help in the face of high rates?

Banks are not showing initiative in improving conditions for debtors, maintaining high margins, which makes the situation of borrowers extremely difficult.

What is the main risk factor for the Polish economy in 2026?

The main risk factor is the escalation of tensions in USA-Iran relations, which directly affects commodity prices and the zloty exchange rate.

What is the main difference between 2024 and 2026 in the MPC's approach?

In 2024, the priority was the domestic fight against inflation, while in 2026, the key challenge became defending the zloty against the effects of global geopolitical uncertainty.

Do savers benefit from the current MPC policy?

Yes, high interest rates translate into better interest on deposits and savings accounts, although this profit may be offset by inflation.

Is there a risk of an interest rate hike in 2026?

Although the baseline scenario is stabilization, a sharp rise in energy commodity prices could force the MPC to consider tightening monetary policy.

What does "geopolitical tax" mean for a borrower?

It means that the amount of loan installments is determined not only by domestic economic indicators, but primarily by global events over which the Polish consumer has no influence.

Is the MPC planning to ease monetary policy in the near future?

In current international conditions, the chances of radical monetary policy easing in the coming weeks are negligible, as the Council's priority remains currency stability.

Is 5.75 percent the final interest rate for 2026?

Forecasts indicate that this level may persist until the end of the year, which results from the need for the NBP to maintain a defensive stance.

What macroeconomic data should borrowers track?

Borrowers should monitor NBP announcements and data on the zloty exchange rate and energy commodity prices, as these most strongly influence the Council's decisions.

Is the USA-Iran conflict the only threat to the zloty?

It is the main risk factor in July and August 2026, however, the MPC also takes into account the broader context of global market uncertainty and capital flows.

Why does the MPC not seek applause through rate cuts?

The Council prioritizes the stability of the financial system and the protection of the currency over short-term relief for borrowers, which is crucial in the face of the risk of economic destabilization.

Did the forecasts from the beginning of 2026 prove accurate?

Most forecasts assuming quick monetary policy easing proved too optimistic when faced with the hard geopolitical reality.

What role does the central bank play in 2026?

The central bank acts as a "guardian of stability," which, in the face of external shocks, must balance between the needs of the economy and the need to protect the value of money.

Can borrowers count on debt restructuring?

Currently, commercial banks are not showing much initiative in this area, which means that debtors must independently seek financial solutions within existing contracts.

What message comes from the August market analyses?

August analyses suggest that one must prepare for a long period of financial stagnation, in which stability is valued higher than rapid growth.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.