Interest rates in 2026: How much will you really pay for your loan?

Loan installments remain under pressure because the MPC, in the face of international tensions, is maintaining a cautious policy, with significant cuts expected no earlier than the end of 2026. Decision-makers at the National Bank of Poland believe that geopolitical instability, including the escalation of the conflict in Iran, poses too great a threat to the zloty's exchange rate to risk faster monetary policy easing. Borrowers who were counting on quick relief in their household budgets must prepare for further stagnation in debt servicing costs.

Evolution of interest rates: From November 2024 to mid-2026

November 2024 was a period of stabilization for mortgage holders, albeit at a high cost. The Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at 5.75 percent. Such monetary policy froze the real estate market, limiting loan accessibility for thousands of Poles. At that time, the market expected signals of a change in course, but hard macroeconomic data and uncertainty regarding inflation in subsequent quarters forced the Council members to take a defensive approach.

The situation only changed in the autumn of 2025. As reported by Bankier.pl on November 5, 2025, the Council decided on a second "autumn quarter" of cuts. At that time, optimism was palpable not only in the banking sector but, above all, among borrowers who began to recalculate their monthly obligations. It seemed that the monetary policy easing cycle was gaining momentum and the economy was entering a phase of cheaper money.

The beginning of 2026, however, brought a change in sentiment. As reported by INFOR.PL in March 2026, the MPC's decisions became a battlefield between the interests of debtors and savers. Rate cuts, while beneficial for borrowers, drastically reduced profits from bank deposits, which forced the Council to seek a difficult compromise. Mid-2026, and especially July, brought a collision with the reality of global conflicts. Reports from July 8, 2026, about the escalation between the USA and Iran became the main point of reference for the Council's meetings.

Currently, the cut cycle is technically ongoing, but its momentum has slowed. The MPC does not operate in a vacuum. In the face of volatility in currency markets, every downward move in interest rates is analyzed through the prism of its impact on the zloty's exchange rate. Cuts that are too fast could trigger a sell-off of the national currency, which in turn would translate into an increase in the prices of imported products, and thus a renewed rise in inflation. Experts, including analysts quoted by Forbes in November 2025, warned that the road to an optimal level for the economy is long. Today, these predictions are proving to be extremely accurate.

Geopolitics as a brake: How the US-Iran conflict affects MPC decisions

Events from July 2026 became a catalyst for a new central bank strategy. The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran, reported by the media on July 8, 2026, forced members of the Monetary Policy Council to revise plans for further cuts. The financial market reacted nervously, which was visible in the zloty's quotations. The Council, remembering lessons from previous crises, chose security at the expense of stimulating growth through cheap credit.

For the borrower, this means that decisions made in the building on Świętokrzyska Street in Warsaw are directly linked to oil prices and the stability of trade routes in the Middle East. If the zloty loses value as a result of global uncertainty, the MPC faces a choice: either defend the currency with higher rates or allow it to weaken, which risks importing inflation. Stabilization was chosen. This is not a matter of a lack of desire to support households, but a necessity to maintain the country's macroeconomic balance.

It is worth looking at this through the prism of specific data. When the currency exchange rate becomes unstable, commercial banks raise risk margins, which negates the benefits of potential, even small, rate cuts. Borrowers who were counting on a drastic drop in installments are hitting a glass ceiling. The MPC will not risk the financial stability of the state for a temporary improvement in consumer sentiment. As a result, forecasts pointing to the end of 2026 as the moment to reach more affordable debt cost levels are currently becoming the only reliable point of reference.

Borrowers vs. savers: Who loses and who gains?

The situation of borrowers in mid-2026 is difficult, but it cannot be considered in isolation from the situation of savers. The mechanism is binary. If interest rates fall, the loan installment decreases, but the interest on deposits and savings accounts also goes down. As indicated by the INFOR.PL service in March 2026, the Council must balance between these two social groups.

Let's assume a specific simulation for a loan of 300,000 PLN with a 25-year repayment period. At current interest rates, including the bank's margin (total interest at a level of approx. 7.5–8.0 percent), the principal-interest installment is about 2,300–2,400 PLN. If the MPC decided on quick cuts of 1 percentage point, the installment would fall by about 180–200 PLN per month. On an annual basis, that is a saving of 2,400 PLN. For a household budget, this is a noticeable amount, but for the financial system, it is a change that, with a weak zloty, could trigger a wave of inflation, negating these benefits in the prices of the shopping basket.

Here is a summary of the key points affecting the Pole's wallet:

MPC decisions from November 5, 2025, set the path for loan costs for the coming months.
INFOR.PL analysis from March 4, 2026, confirms that every rate cut is a real decrease in savings profits.
wGospodarce reports from July 8, 2026, indicate that geopolitical pressure is permanently keeping rates at an elevated level.

For savers, the current stagnation is a period of capital protection. Although profits from deposits are not spectacular, in the current market realities, they are a safer haven than in a scenario of sharp rate cuts. Borrowers, on the other hand, have fallen into a trap of expectations. The real estate market, as emphasized by analyses from 2026, is waiting for "cheap money," but as long as the conflict in the Middle East does not expire or is not permanently pacified, the MPC will remain in wait-and-see mode. This is a game in which neither side comes out with a clear plus, and the main regulator remains external geopolitics.

Economic forecasts for the second half of 2026

The Monetary Policy Council entered the second half of 2026 with very limited room for maneuver. Each meeting becomes a hostage to data on inflation and the zloty's exchange rate. Analyses published by Direct Money in April 2026 pointed to a number of challenges that decision-makers must face. Today, these challenges have become everyday life. Inflation, although it has slowed down, does not show a tendency for a sharp decline, which, combined with a shaky zloty, means that the Council has no arguments for bolder moves.

For the average loan holder, this means that the summer of 2026 will not bring relief. Instead of cuts, we are observing the maintenance of the status quo. Economists, analyzing the situation as early as November 2025, warned against excessive optimism. Their forecasts that we will reach the optimal level of rates no earlier than the end of 2026 are today the main guide for the market. Any other scenario, assuming a sudden turn of events, is treated by analysts with great skepticism.

What does this mean in practice? No "cheap credit" in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. Companies and households must plan expenses assuming current debt servicing costs. The MPC clearly prefers to wait out the global storm rather than risk a premature signal for cuts. This is a defensive strategy that aims primarily to protect the economy from external shocks. Borrowers counting on a change must therefore arm themselves with patience and prepare their budgets for the coming months with high installments.

The role of the NBP in stabilizing the Polish labor market and industry

The NBP's actions in 2026 go beyond just the level of mortgage installments. Interest rate stability is the foundation for the investment plans of Polish industry. Enterprises that were counting on easier access to capital in 2025 must revise their strategies in mid-2026. The cost of money is currently a barrier that hinders expansion and new investment projects, especially in sectors dependent on external financing.

Stability, although difficult for debtors, has its purpose. The NBP ensures that high rates do not stifle the labor market, which is crucial in the face of global uncertainty. If the Council decided on moves that were too sudden, the zloty's exchange rate could be destabilized, which would directly affect energy and raw material costs for Polish factories. In this context, the Council's current defensive stance is a form of protection against cost-push inflation, which could hit industry much harder than the level of loan installments.

Borrowers must understand that their situation is a resultant of decisions regarding global stability. The prospect of financial relief is being pushed back in time because the NBP prioritizes the security of the entire economic system. According to forecasts from the autumn of 2025, significant cuts are realistic only at the end of 2026. Until then, every decision of the Council will be maintained in a spirit of conservatism. This is a bitter pill for holders of variable interest rates, but the only way to avoid a scenario of a sharp rise in the prices of goods and services, which would be even more painful for household budgets than a high loan installment.

Summary: What to expect from the next MPC meeting?

Hopes for quick relief for borrowers' wallets should be put on the back burner. Installments remain under strong pressure because the Monetary Policy Council, in the face of the escalation of the conflict between the USA and Iran, is maintaining a wait-and-see strategy. Despite the optimistic signals that appeared a few months ago, market reality forces caution. Significant interest rate cuts remain in the realm of forecasts for the end of 2026.

The financial market is carefully following every subsequent meeting of the Council, looking for a glimmer of hope for a change in trend. At the moment, there are no indications of radical moves. The zloty, being under the influence of external conflicts, effectively ties the hands of the Council members. Any hasty rate cut could weaken the currency, fueling inflation, which would be unacceptable from the point of view of the NBP's inflation target.

For loan holders, this means stagnation. There is no room for sudden changes until the economy finds a point of equilibrium in the face of global turmoil. Monitoring data on inflation and GDP growth rates remains key to MPC decisions. As long as these indicators do not show a lasting improvement while international tensions subside, monetary policy will remain conservative. No cheap loans will appear in bank offers overnight. Borrowers must come to terms with high debt servicing costs in their budgets for the coming months, waiting for the signal for cuts, which, according to forecasts, will appear no earlier than the end of 2026.

What this means for you

As a borrower, you must make decisions in conditions of uncertainty. Since significant cuts should not be expected before the end of 2026, waiting with folded arms is the worst strategy. If you have the opportunity, check your repayment schedule. Overpaying the loan principal, even with small amounts now while rates are high, brings a tangible benefit – you reduce the base for calculating interest, which in the future, even after rate cuts, will translate into lower total costs.

Do not wait for miraculous installment cuts, because in the current geopolitical conditions, they are not guaranteed. If your financial situation allows it, consider switching to a periodically fixed interest rate if the bank offers conditions close to the current market level, to protect yourself against potential shocks resulting from the intensification of international conflicts. Refinancing a loan at another bank may be profitable only if the bank's margin is significantly lower than the current one. However, if you are only counting on a drop in WIBOR, you must arm yourself with patience until the fourth quarter of 2026. Your main task now is to protect financial liquidity, not to speculate on MPC moves.

Questions and answers

Will my loan installment fall in the coming month?

Significant installment cuts should not be expected in the short term. The MPC remains in defensive mode, which excludes sharp rate cuts in the coming weeks.

Why is the MPC not cutting rates, even though inflation seems stable?

The main factor is high international uncertainty and its impact on the zloty's exchange rate. The Council must ensure the stability of the currency so as not to allow imported inflation, which could negate the stabilization efforts made so far.

When can real changes in deposit interest rates be expected?

Analysts forecast that we will reach the interest rate level that can be considered optimal no earlier than the end of 2026. That is when more noticeable changes will occur in bank offers for both borrowers and savers.

Does overpaying the loan make sense now?

Yes, overpaying the principal is currently one of the most effective methods of fighting high debt servicing costs. By reducing the principal, you reduce the amount on which the bank calculates interest, which gives real savings regardless of the Monetary Policy Council's decisions.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.