Interest rates unchanged in August 2026: What about your loan?

In brief

The NBP main reference rate remains stable at 5.75 percent.
Tensions between the USA and Iran limit the room for monetary policy easing.
Experts point to the end of 2026 as a realistic date for reaching an optimal interest rate level.

MPC decision: Stabilization instead of cuts

The Monetary Policy Council's decision was made in July 2026 and is unambiguous for the wallets of Poles. The Council maintained the NBP interest rates at 5.75 percent. The lack of changes means that in August, the amount of loan installments remains at an unchanged level. The false hopes for rapid cuts, which appeared in market discussions just a few months ago, have been brutally verified by the current geopolitical situation.

For mortgage holders, this means a continuation of the costly status quo. Banks have no basis to update repayment schedules, so the transfers you make this month will look identical to those from July. Stabilization is a buzzword used by economists, but for the average borrower, it simply sounds like a lack of relief. Instead of the expected respite, we have a continued maintenance of high debt servicing costs.

The decision is not a surprise to analysts observing the tensions in the Middle East. The escalation in Iran effectively ties the hands of the Monetary Policy Council. The zloty is under clear pressure, and in such conditions, easing monetary policy would be risky and could fuel inflation, the fight against which remains a priority. The MPC has chosen a safe haven, postponing potential cuts to an indefinite future.

Waiting for a move up or down is becoming a waiting game. Although it was forecast as recently as last year that we would reach the optimal interest rate level by the end of 2026 at the earliest, today's reality forces a revision of these assumptions. Each subsequent month with the same interest rate is a signal that the Council is in no hurry to ease credit conditions. If you are counting on a cheaper loan in the near future, you must arm yourself with patience. For now, the market provides no indication that September will bring a change to this trend.

Geopolitics and the Polish zloty

The Monetary Policy Council maintained interest rates at 5.75 percent in July 2026. This decision, although expected by some analysts, largely stems from external factors over which domestic policymakers have no direct influence. The main brake on any downward moves remains the situation in the Middle East. The escalation of tensions in Iran exerts direct pressure on the zloty exchange rate, which effectively ties the central bank's hands.

Weakening the currency in the face of international turbulence is a scenario that the MPC is desperately avoiding. In theory, a cheaper loan could stimulate the economy, but in practice, the National Bank of Poland cannot afford risky monetary policy easing when the zloty is losing value. A weaker currency means more expensive imports, and consequently higher inflationary pressure, which in the current geopolitical situation is an unacceptable risk for the Council members.

For borrowers, this means the stabilization of debt servicing costs. August installments remain at an unchanged level, which provides a temporary respite but does not guarantee a long-term improvement in the situation. The mechanism is simple: as long as uncertainty related to Iran dominates global markets, foreign capital flees to safer havens, bypassing emerging markets, including Poland. This, in turn, forces the NBP to keep the cost of money at a high level to protect the valuation of the zloty. Hopes for cheaper loans in the third quarter of this year have collided with the brutal reality of global tensions, which for the average mortgage holder simply means a further freezing of installments at their current, high level. Every subsequent MPC decision will now be a hostage not so much to domestic inflation readings, but to nervous movements in global fuel and currency markets.

Impact on the credit market in Poland

During its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent. For borrowers, this means stabilization. The August capital and interest installments will remain at the same level as in the previous month. The lack of movement from the Council is a direct consequence of the July decision, which translates into the predictability of household budgets in the short term.

However, this does not mean complete peace of mind for mortgage holders. The final amount of financial burdens remains directly dependent on WIBOR rates, which still react to current MPC decisions and market sentiment. Banks update loan interest rates in three- or six-month periods, so a temporary freezing of the cost of money at the National Bank of Poland does not guarantee identical conditions across the entire loan portfolio over the coming quarters.

It is worth looking at the broader context. Maintaining interest rates in a situation where there is uncertainty in international markets, including in the context of geopolitical tensions in Iran, is a defensive move. The zloty is under pressure, and inflation still does not give the MPC room for bold maneuvers towards easing monetary policy. Borrowers who were counting on a rapid drop in installments must arm themselves with patience. The current stagnation is a signal for banks to maintain margins at their current level, and for customers – a signal that there will be no cheap credit for now. The time for the optimism mentioned by analysts at the end of 2025 has not yet arrived. The situation remains tense, and every subsequent decision by the Council will be carefully analyzed for its further impact on the wallets of Poles.

What do savers gain?

For people with savings in bank deposits and savings accounts, the July 2026 decision of the Monetary Policy Council is a clear signal: the status quo is being maintained. Keeping interest rates at 5.75 percent means that banks currently have no incentives to sharply cut interest rates on deposit products. However, this does not mean that the wallets of savers will grow at the rate they were counting on half a year ago.

This is good news for those who fear rapid declines in capital gains. When interest rates go down, banks react instantly, lowering deposit interest rates even before the MPC decision is fully absorbed by the market. Now, this process has been halted. Stabilization is the key word here, although it has a flip side. Savers must prepare for the fact that the current conditions they have become accustomed to will become the new norm for the coming months.

In practice, the situation for deposit holders looks as follows:

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent eliminates the risk of a sudden drop in bank deposit interest rates in August, which gives capital holders some predictability when planning their household budget.
Savers can count on the stability of current banking conditions, which allows for the continuation of savings strategies without the need to nervously look for new, more attractive offers from competitors, which are unlikely in current market conditions.

For depositors, this means the end of hope for higher margins in the short term. Banks, seeing no movement from the MPC, will not fight for customers by aggressively raising rates. Money in deposits will work the same way as in previous weeks. From the customer's perspective, this is comfort, but also a certain stagnation of profits, which in the era of inflation remain under pressure.

Forecasts for the end of 2026

The Monetary Policy Council decided to maintain interest rates at 5.75 percent back in July, which means that in August, borrowers will not feel any changes in their monthly obligations. The stabilization of the cost of money has become a fact, although for many household budgets it is only a temporary respite, and not the long-promised scenario of cheap credit.

Forbes experts are tempering the mood. They point out directly that interest rates will reach the optimal level, which would allow for a real feeling of relief in wallets, at the end of 2026 at the earliest. The cycle of cuts is indeed continuing, but its pace remains extremely cautious. The MPC is in no hurry to ease monetary policy, which is evident from recent decisions.

The market must come to terms with the fact that the aggressive cuts that optimists were counting on a year ago are currently excluded. External risk factors, including the tense geopolitical situation, effectively curb the ambitions of Council members. Even if inflation begins to show a downward trend, the central bank will react very cautiously. For the borrower, this means one thing: the installment will not rise, but it will also not fall at a rate that would significantly improve household financial liquidity before the end of the year. False hopes for cheap credit in the third quarter must be put on the shelf. It remains to wait for the MPC's moves in the final months, although the current "small steps" strategy suggests that we are unlikely to see a breakthrough in December. The question is how long the economy will withstand such high debt servicing costs without a clear slowdown in investment.

Table: Key interest rate indicators

The Monetary Policy Council made its decision in July 2026, maintaining interest rates at an unchanged level of 5.75 percent. For borrowers, this means one thing: August will not bring relief, but it will also not surprise with a higher installment. The cost of money in the Polish banking system remains frozen this month.

The situation in international markets, especially the escalation of tensions in Iran, raised fears of upward moves. The zloty, under pressure from these geopolitical turmoils, did not prompt MPC members to make nervous reactions. Instead, a defensive variant was chosen. This is a safe way out that stabilizes the situation but at the same time cuts off hopes for cheap loans in the coming months.

Table: Key interest rate indicators

Reference rate — 5.75 percent (Parkiet, 08.07.2026)
Date of last decision — July 2026 (wGospodarce, 08.07.2026)
Outlook for changes — stabilization until the end of the year (TotalMoney.pl, 13.07.2026)
Market context — zloty under pressure (INNPoland.pl, 08.07.2026)

Forecasts for the second half of the year are clear. The market no longer expects sharp cuts that would be felt in household budgets within this quarter. Economic fundamentals force the maintenance of current rates. If you are planning your household

What this means for you

The MPC decision means a status quo for the Polish economy. Borrowers gain certainty that installments will not rise, but savers cannot count on further increases in deposit interest rates. The catch remains the international situation (USA-Iran), which could force the NBP to change its strategy at any moment if inflation accelerates again.

Questions and answers

Will loan installments fall in August 2026?

No, maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent means that the amount of installments remains at the level of the previous month.

Why is the MPC not cutting rates despite expectations?

The main reason is the pressure on the zloty caused by geopolitical uncertainty, in particular the tensions in Iran.

When can real interest rate cuts be expected?

Economists' forecasts indicate that interest rates may approach the optimal level at the end of 2026 at the earliest.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.

Interest rates unchanged in August 2026: What about your loan?

In brief

MPC decision: Stabilization instead of cuts

Geopolitics and the Polish zloty

Impact on the credit market in Poland

What do savers gain?

Forecasts for the end of 2026

Table: Key interest rate indicators

What this means for you

Questions and answers

Will loan installments fall in August 2026?

Why is the MPC not cutting rates despite expectations?

When can real interest rate cuts be expected?

Sources

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