NBP interest rates: How much were they in November 2024?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) kept NBP interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent, which was part of the policy of stabilizing prices in the economy. This decision resulted from the central bank's conservative approach to the still-elevated dynamics of inflationary processes. Members of the Council, including Governor Adam Glapiński and representatives such as Ireneusz Dąbrowski and Cezary Kochalski, concluded that any easing of monetary parameters would have been premature at that time.

Maintaining the main reference rate at 5.75 percent meant that the cost of credit for businesses and households remained at a high level. The interbank market, which prices future money costs through the prism of FRA (Forward Rate Agreements) contracts and the WIBOR 3M index, received a signal that the period of restrictive monetary policy would be extended. Based on this decision, commercial banks had no grounds to lower margins or interest rates on variable-rate mortgage loans. Borrowers with obligations taken out in previous years therefore had to continue paying installments based on high rates, which directly limited their ability to consume.

MPC decision from November 2024: Facts and figures

The Monetary Policy Council made the decision on November 6, 2024. It was a two-day meeting during which data on economic growth and the dynamics of consumer goods and services prices were analyzed. At that time, the CPI index in Poland hovered around levels that caused concern among policymakers, forcing the maintenance of a restrictive stance.

The lack of changes in interest rates was a form of protection against a secondary wave of inflation. In official communications, MPC members pointed to the risk associated with energy prices and regulated tariffs, which could permanently anchor inflation expectations at too high a level. Keeping rates at 5.75 percent was intended to cool demand in the economy, thereby limiting the propensity to take on new liabilities.

For the banking sector, this meant the continuation of the interest margin at a level that allowed for high profits, but at the same time increased credit risk in retail portfolios. Bank clients, seeing no movement from the NBP, quickly revised their expectations regarding a drop in installments. Savers, on the other hand, had to settle for deposit offers which, despite high rates, often did not offer a real profit after taking into account current price dynamics.

This strategy was based on the conviction that the economy needed more time to extinguish price pressure. The lack of dynamic actions—meaning neither hikes nor cuts—was a message of "waiting" to the market. The Council did not want to risk a mistake that could be read by investors as a signal to attack the zloty.

Why was 5.75 percent the base level?

The 5.75 percent level became the reference point for the entire financial architecture in Poland at the end of 2024. The WIBOR 3M index, being a derivative of the Council's decision, stabilized around this level, which for holders of variable-rate loans meant freezing the installment amount at a high level. This mechanism acted as an automatic stabilizer, but at the same time constituted a barrier to private investment.

Commercial banks, operating in this environment, did not attempt to compete aggressively on credit pricing. Instead, they focused on maintaining liquidity and managing portfolio risk, which was becoming increasingly difficult to service in the face of slowing GDP growth. Borrowers, especially those with higher debt, had to adjust their spending to the costs of debt service, which consumed a significant portion of household disposable income.

By keeping rates unchanged, the NBP sent a clear message to financial markets: price stability is paramount over supporting economic growth. This stance was consistent with the central bank's mandate, although for many analysts it was a signal that the MPC feared losing control over inflationary processes. Every Council meeting at that time was analyzed in terms of the rhetoric of individual members, who in their public statements tried to balance the impact of high rates on the real economy.

Rate stability also provided time to observe the external environment. The Polish economy, as an open one strongly linked to foreign trade, had to react to exchange rate volatility. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent supported the zloty, counteracting its excessive weakening, which could have imported additional inflation.

Economists' perspective: From 2024 to 2026

An analysis of the path taken by monetary policy from November 2024 to August 2026 shows a process spread out over time. The initial phase of waiting, dominated by keeping rates at 5.75 percent, slowly gave way to a cycle that was intended to lead to the normalization of money costs.

According to forecasts published in financial services such as Forbes or Bankier.pl, the market had to repeatedly correct its expectations. In the autumn of 2025, the MPC decided on the so-called second autumn quarter of cuts, which was a signal that restrictive conditions were beginning to be eased. However, it was not a sudden process. Experts emphasized that reaching an optimal level of rates that would support development without fueling inflation was realistic no sooner than the end of 2026.

This process illustrates how difficult it was to predict the central bank's moves under conditions of high geopolitical volatility. Tensions in the Middle East, including the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, introduced an additional risk premium that affected the valuations of financial assets. The zloty, under the pressure of these events, was particularly exposed to fluctuations, which forced the MPC to be cautious in administering cuts.

Analysts pointed to several key moments in this cycle:
- November 2024: Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent (TVN24 decision).
- Autumn 2025: Second quarter of cuts, indicating a change in the Council's attitude.
- Year 2026: Striving for the optimal level, forecasted by economists for the last quarter.

For borrowers, these two years were a time of uncertainty. While in 2024, 5.75 percent was the reference point, the following months brought hope for cuts, which were, however, hampered by external factors. Each subsequent MPC decision was the result of a compromise between the desire to support the economy and the need to ensure currency and price stability.

Impact of the decision on borrowers' wallets

Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent in November 2024 set a long-term financial planning horizon for many Polish households. People with mortgage loans based on the WIBOR 3M index plus a bank margin had to come to terms with the lack of a real decrease in debt service costs. The loan installment, which constituted a significant burden, did not change, which in conditions of persistent inflation meant that the real value of the repaid installments was still high.

On the other hand, savers in banks on term deposits did not feel an improvement in the profitability of their savings. Deposit offers, which were directly correlated with the NBP deposit rate, remained in a sideways trend. The lack of an impulse for deposit interest rates to rise, combined with inflation, meant that capital accumulated in accounts was losing its purchasing power. This forced Poles to look for riskier forms of capital allocation, such as corporate bonds or investment funds, which, however, involved a greater risk of losing part of their funds.

Faced with the MPC's decision, borrowers had to demonstrate great budget discipline. Monitoring NBP communications became a permanent element of taking care of household finances. Each Council meeting was followed with the hope of a change in rhetoric that could initiate a cycle of cuts. The lack of such changes in November 2024 was a signal that "cheap money" should not be expected in the near future.

Commercial banks, taking advantage of rate stabilization, maintained rigorous criteria for granting new loans. Creditworthiness, calculated by financial institutions, was still subjected to stress tests, which for many potential property buyers meant exclusion from the market. Rate stability, although desirable from the point of view of predictability, was a kind of "freeze" for the credit market, which limited the dynamics of the construction sector's development and the consumption of durable goods.

Zloty under pressure: Did the geopolitical situation matter?

The MPC decision of November 2024 did not take place in isolation from global tensions. The situation in the Middle East, including the rivalry between the USA and Iran, was a factor that influenced the Council's decisions indirectly but significantly. The zloty, as an emerging market currency, was particularly sensitive to the moods of global investors.

Geopolitical tensions traditionally lead to an increase in energy commodity prices, especially crude oil. Poland, being a net energy importer, felt this as inflationary pressure. The increase in energy import costs translated into higher prices within the country, which forced the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy. If the MPC had decided to cut rates in November 2024, it could have led to a weakening of the zloty, which in the face of rising oil prices would have been risky for price stability.

Analysts in July 2026, analyzing the events of 2024, pointed out that the Council's caution was justified. Each decision to maintain rates was an attempt to anchor inflation expectations in the face of external supply shocks. The dependence between the situation in Tehran and the decision in Warsaw was clear. Investors, fearing for the security of raw material supplies, moved capital to so-called safe havens, which put pressure on the currencies of countries like Poland.

The Monetary Policy Council, not wanting to risk a speculative attack on the zloty, preferred to stick to 5.75 percent rather than risk volatility that it would not be able to control with monetary tools. It was a defensive strategy aimed at protecting the purchasing power of the national currency. For borrowers, this meant that their installments were "hostages" not only to local inflation but also to global political tensions.

Forecasts for the future: When will there be real changes in rates?

In November 2024, the decision to keep rates at 5.75 percent was the foundation upon which the strategy for the following quarters was built. Today, looking at this period from the perspective of August 2026, we know that it was the beginning of a laborious normalization process.

The turning point turned out to be the autumn of 2025, when the MPC began a cycle of cuts. It was a signal to the market that the fight against inflation, although still being waged, was entering a new stage. From the very beginning, economists pointed out that the road to the "optimal level" would be full of challenges. The pace of this process remained a hostage to macroeconomic data, especially CPI inflation readings, which still showed some stickiness.

Key stages of this process included:
- November 2024: Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent (source: TVN24).
- Autumn 2025: Second quarter of cuts, initiating real changes (source: Bankier.pl).
- End of 2026: Forecasted achievement of the optimal rate level (source: Forbes).

Economists warn, however, that even after reaching this level, monetary policy will not be able to return to the era of "zero rates." The new normal is higher money costs than in the decade before the pandemic. Borrowers must prepare for the fact that the period of very cheap loans may not return in the foreseeable future.

The geopolitical situation remains a factor of uncertainty. Every subsequent conference of the NBP Governor is now analyzed in terms of whether the Council intends to continue the cycle or hold off on further moves due to the external situation. The market remains in a state of uncertainty, and investors are looking for confirmation in NBP communications that the chosen path is sustainable.

What this means for you

For the average borrower, the decision of November 2024 was a signal that the period of hikes had ended, but the road to cuts would be long. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent forced many households to revise their purchasing and investment plans. The lack of relief in loan installments meant the necessity of tightening belts, which translated into limiting spending in sectors such as retail trade or services.

For savers, the situation was equally difficult. The lack of real profit on bank deposits forced financial education and the search for alternatives. In retrospect, it can be seen that November 2024 was the moment when the Polish economy moved from the phase of acute fighting against inflation to a phase of stabilization, which required patience from all market participants.

Questions and answers

Did interest rates in Poland change in November 2024?

No, the Monetary Policy Council kept the reference rate at 5.75 percent.

When did economists forecast reaching the optimal rate level?

Forecasts published in 2025 and 2026 pointed to the end of 2026 as the moment of reaching the optimal interest rate level.

How did geopolitical tensions influence the decisions of the Monetary Policy Council?

Tensions, especially on the US-Iran line, put pressure on commodity prices and the zloty exchange rate, which forced the MPC to be cautious in easing monetary policy so as not to lead to secondary inflation.

What did the November 2024 decision mean for borrowers?

It meant maintaining debt service costs at the existing high level and the need to continue monitoring NBP communications in anticipation of future cuts.

Why did the MPC not decide on faster cuts in 2025?

Decisions were dependent on inflation data and external uncertainty, which limited the Council's room for maneuver in terms of easing monetary policy.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.