Tax Revolution 2027: Will the 15% lump-sum tax destroy company profits?

From 2027, the lump-sum tax rate will rise to 15% for selected groups, which, combined with the tightening of the system, could increase the tax burden for some entrepreneurs by as much as 40%. This increase results from the accumulation of the new lump-sum rate and the tightening of revenue qualification rules, which directly reduces the net profitability of companies. For many entities with low margins, this change means a drastic loss of financial liquidity and the necessity of a complete revision of existing tax settlement models.

Draft UD116: The new reality for lump-sum taxpayers from 2027

Draft bill UD116, published by the Government Legislation Centre, sets new frameworks for taxpayers using the lump-sum tax on recorded revenue. The transition to a 15% rate for selected professional groups represents a departure from the previous policy of promoting the lump-sum tax as a simple and predictable form of taxation. Data from the Ministry of Finance indicate an attempt to increase budget revenues, which in practice means shifting the fiscal burden onto micro and small enterprises.

The structure of the draft assumes not only an increase in the base rate. A key element contributing to the real 40% increase in burdens is the systemic tightening of regulations. This means that entrepreneurs will not only pay a higher percentage of their revenue but will also be deprived of existing interpretative possibilities that allowed for more favorable classification of provided services. The tightening primarily concerns the clarification of PKWiU (Polish Classification of Goods and Services) codes, which will cause some services previously taxed at lower rates to be automatically moved to the 15% group.

For the small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sector, this is a structural change. An entrepreneur who was able to maintain profitability at a level of 15-20% with an 8.5% lump-sum rate faces the challenge of maintaining liquidity when the rate rises to 15% and there is no possibility of deducting tax-deductible costs. Many companies that based their budget on low taxation will have to raise the prices of their services, which in market conditions could lead to a loss of orders to entities from abroad or companies operating under different taxation rules.

An analysis of the Ministry of Finance's actions indicates that the goal is not merely a temporary patching of the budget deficit, but a long-term reduction in the attractiveness of the lump-sum tax. From 2027, this form of settlement will no longer be treated as preferential for high-margin services, becoming one of many tax instruments with a similar effective tax rate. Entrepreneurs who have previously built their strategies based on predictable costs must now prepare for scenario variants that take into account higher fiscal pressure. The lack of compromises in draft UD116 indicates the government's determination in the process of fiscalizing the service sector.

Why will the IT sector feel the tax changes the most?

The IT industry, due to the specificity of its business model based on high value-added with relatively low direct costs, has for years used the lump-sum tax as the optimal form of taxation. The year 2026, according to forecasts by economists and market analysts, will remain the last period in which these rules ensured stability. From January 1, 2027, the business model of many software houses and freelancers will have to be verified in terms of profitability.

The main flashpoint is the aforementioned 15% rate. For a programmer or IT analyst who previously settled at a rate of 12% or 8.5%, a jump of several percentage points, combined with a broader definition of services covered by the higher lump-sum, means a real increase in the tax burden. If we add to this social security contributions, which are also linked to the form of taxation, the effective income burden can increase sharply.

The projected 40% increase in burdens stems from the sum of several factors. The first is the direct difference in the tax rate. The second is the aforementioned tightening of the system, which in practice means classifying a wider spectrum of IT services into a higher lump-sum rate. The third element is the inability to deduct costs under the lump-sum system. In the case of technology companies, where the costs of equipment, software, or licenses can be high, the inability to deduct them becomes particularly acute with a higher tax rate on revenue.

From the perspective of software houses, this change means the necessity of renegotiating rates in B2B contracts. If contractors do not agree to higher prices, the company's margin will be drastically reduced. This, in turn, will limit investment opportunities in technology development and human capital. The optimism that has accompanied the industry in recent years is giving way to cold calculations. Entrepreneurs in the technology sector are facing a choice: either accept a drop in profits or move part of their operations abroad, where tax systems remain more predictable.

The budget deficit and the government's fiscal strategy

The state's fiscal strategy for 2026-2027 is based on the assumption that the SME sector still has reserves that can be used to offset the budget deficit. The Ministry of Finance, in publishing the assumptions for the changes, argues that equalizing tax rates is necessary for social justice. In practice, this means shifting the tax burden toward entrepreneurs who have so far used simplified forms of taxation.

The mechanism of tightening the system acts as a filter. Entrepreneurs who have previously taken advantage of ambiguities in the regulations regarding the classification of services will be forced to use higher lump-sum rates. The government's tax ladder is becoming increasingly steep. Each subsequent rung, represented by higher rates, is increasingly difficult for small companies to overcome.

Work on draft UD116 confirms that the government is striving to unify taxation. Instead of lowering taxes, the state is choosing the path of raising them, arguing this with budgetary needs. For entrepreneurs, such rhetoric is a signal that legal stability is not a priority. Regulatory uncertainty stifles long-term investment. Entrepreneurs prefer to hold off on purchasing new machinery or hiring new employees, waiting for the final shape of the regulations that will come into force in 2027.

An important element of this strategy is also the monitoring of cash flows in small companies. The tax office's IT systems allow for increasingly precise detection of discrepancies between declared revenue and the actual model of service provision. This makes avoiding the higher rate through creative accounting increasingly difficult and risky. The tax office is betting on technology that limits the room for maneuver for entrepreneurs, forcing them to pay higher levies.

PIT 2027: What does raising the threshold to 140,000 PLN change?

Raising the second tax threshold in the PIT scale to 140,000 PLN is often presented as a relief for the middle class. However, when compared with the simultaneous increase in the lump-sum rate to 15%, this picture becomes much more complex. For many entrepreneurs, the change in the PIT threshold may seem attractive, but in practice, it rarely constitutes a real alternative for lump-sum taxpayers who, given their turnover, do not effectively use the tax-free allowance or tax-deductible costs.

Comparing these two changes – raising the PIT threshold and increasing the lump-sum rate – reveals the priorities of the Ministry of Finance. The state is promoting a transition to general rules (tax scale) for people with incomes falling within the new threshold, while simultaneously limiting the benefits of the lump-sum tax for those who earn revenue in service sectors. This is an attempt to push some entrepreneurs from the lump-sum tax to the tax scale, which in many cases may turn out to be a trap if the entrepreneur has high operating costs.

The key parameters of the changes for 2027 are as follows:

Raising the second PIT threshold to 140,000 PLN: this change aims to mitigate progression for employees and those conducting business under general rules.
15% lump-sum rate for selected groups: covers specialized services, including the broadly defined IT industry, which drastically limits the profitability of this form of taxation.
Estimated 40% increase in burdens: results from the accumulation of a higher rate and the elimination of loopholes in revenue classification.
Tightening fiscal policy toward the IT sector: constitutes an element of a broader plan to tighten the tax system.

A comparison of these solutions shows that the government does not offer a single, coherent vision of taxing entrepreneurship. Instead, we are dealing with fragmentary changes that provide relief in one part of the system (higher PIT threshold) and take away funds in another (higher lump-sum). For an entrepreneur, this means the necessity of performing a tax simulation that goes beyond a simple comparison of rates. One must also take into account the health insurance contribution, which under the tax scale is calculated based on income, and under the lump-sum tax based on revenue, which changes the total amount of levies paid to the budget.

Impact on the SME sector: Between stability and new costs

Small and medium-sized enterprises form the backbone of the Polish economy, but at the same time, they are the most sensitive to changes in the tax system. Raising the lump-sum rate to 15% from 2027 will particularly affect companies operating in the professional services area. For a small business owner whose operating margin is often between 10% and 20%, a 40% tax increase is a critical change.

Most companies in the SME sector do not have extensive tax departments that could optimize settlements on an ongoing basis in the face of such dynamic changes. Entrepreneurs are forced to track Ministry of Finance announcements and interpret draft bills on their own. This generates additional accounting and legal service costs, which indirectly burdens the company's budget even further.

Concerns about profitability are fully justified. If a company is unable to pass the increase in tax costs on to customers, it must look for savings internally. This often means freezing wages, giving up investments in employee training, or limiting spending on office infrastructure. In the long term, such actions lead to stagnation and a decline in competitiveness against foreign companies that are not burdened with such high fiscal costs.

It is worth noting the problem of so-called "hidden taxation." By tightening the system, the tax office not only collects more money from the tax rate itself but also forces entrepreneurs to spend time on complicated reporting procedures. This time is an opportunity cost – an entrepreneur who, instead of focusing on business development, must analyze tax interpretations, loses potential profits. This is a factor often overlooked in government calculations, and in practice, it has a huge impact on the condition of the SME sector.

Summary: How to prepare for the changes in 2027?

The upcoming tax changes from January 1, 2027, require a strategic approach from entrepreneurs. The increase in the lump-sum rate to 15% and the tightening of regulations are facts that must be taken into account when planning finances for the coming years. The estimated 40% increase in burdens is an alarm signal that cannot be ignored.

It is necessary to conduct a detailed profitability analysis of all available forms of taxation. Entrepreneurs should check whether the lump-sum tax remains the optimal solution at the new rates. In many cases, switching to the tax scale or a flat tax may prove less costly if the company generates high tax-deductible costs. One cannot assume that the lump-sum tax will always be the cheapest.

Preparation for the changes should include:

1. An audit of current PKWiU codes: checking whether the services provided actually qualify for the 15% rate and whether there is a possibility of adjusting the business model.
2. A financial liquidity simulation: calculating how the increase in burdens will affect cash flow in the first quarter of 2027.
3. A revision of price lists: assessing how much service prices need to be raised to maintain the current margin after accounting for the higher tax.
4. Consultations with experts: using the help of tax advisors to assess the risks associated with the tightening of the system.

The regulatory uncertainty that accompanies work on draft UD116 is an external factor over which the entrepreneur has limited influence. The best strategy is to build financial resilience. Companies that have accumulated adequate cash reserves will have greater freedom in making decisions after the new regulations come into force. Ignoring the changes or counting on them being softened at the last minute may prove to be a mistake that exposes the company to serious liquidity problems.

What this means for you

Changes in the tax system from 2027 mean the end of the era of "cheap lump-sum tax." Entrepreneurs must come to terms with the fact that the state will collect levies more effectively, which necessitates professionalization in financial management. For those running businesses in high-margin sectors, this is a signal that previous optimization methods are losing their validity, and the key to survival will be operational efficiency and the ability to respond flexibly to the changing legal environment.

Questions and answers

When will the new 15% lump-sum tax come into effect?

The new rules providing for a 15% rate are expected to enter into force on January 1, 2027.

How much could taxes rise for the most affected groups?

In some cases, taking into account the tightening of the system and the lack of deduction options, it is estimated that real tax burdens could increase by as much as 40%.

Will raising the PIT threshold to 140,000 PLN compensate for the increases in the lump-sum tax?

No, raising the PIT threshold to 140,000 PLN applies to taxpayers settling under general rules, not lump-sum taxpayers, and therefore does not constitute direct compensation for entrepreneurs who will be covered by the lump-sum tax increase.

Why is the IT industry particularly exposed to these changes?

The IT industry relies largely on the personal work of specialists with low tax-deductible costs, which made the lump-sum tax the most attractive for it. The new regulations force the taxation of revenue at a high 15% rate with no possibility of deducting costs, which drastically hits the margin.

Is draft UD116 final?

The draft has passed the consultation stage, and the main assumptions regarding the 15% rate and the tightening of the system are considered decided, although details regarding transitional provisions may still be clarified.

How to prepare for the changes in 2027?

It is crucial to perform a financial simulation for various forms of taxation and review PKWiU codes to avoid unpleasant surprises during future tax audits.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.