NBP interest rates: How did the 2024 decision affect your loan?

Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent in November 2024 was a key turning point that stabilized the market before a series of cuts began in the autumn of 2025, which ultimately translated into a successive reduction in Poles' loan installments. Freezing rates at this level protected borrowers from an immediate increase in the installment for an average loan of 300,000 PLN by approximately 150 PLN per month, which, given the inflation indicators at the time, provided real protection for household budgets. This move by the Monetary Policy Council set a framework of stability, without which the subsequent cuts in the autumn of 2025 could have been negated by a violent reaction from the currency market and further weakening of the zloty.

November 2024 went down in NBP chronicles as a period of defensive strategy. The Monetary Policy Council, by deciding to leave rates unchanged, sent a signal that the priority was to avoid a shock that could permanently destabilize debt servicing costs. This decision, announced on November 6, 2024, was the result of cold risk calculation. The economy needed predictability. Commercial banks, operating on margins based on the WIBOR rate, received a clear instruction that the cost of money would not rise, which halted the trend of drastic installment increases that had worried households for previous quarters.

A simulation of the impact of this decision on a borrower with a debt of 300,000 PLN, assuming a 25-year loan period and a bank margin of 2 percentage points, shows the scale of the dependency. With a reference rate of 5.75 percent and a 3M WIBOR rate close to this value, the principal-interest installment was approximately 2,650 PLN. An increase in rates by just 0.25 percentage points would have generated an additional cost of 40-50 PLN; however, in a scenario of lack of stability and market pressure for hikes of 0.5-0.75 percentage points, the borrower would have had to face an installment higher by the aforementioned 150 PLN. For the following months, until the autumn of 2025, every month of maintaining the status quo was a saving of real cash for such clients, which remained in the household budget instead of going to the bank's interest fund.

The autumn of 2025 brought the change the market had been waiting for with growing impatience. Official data from Bankier.pl on November 5, 2025, confirmed the second interest rate cut in this cycle. The Monetary Policy Council decided that economic fundamentals allowed for a loosening of monetary policy. However, it was not a sudden process. An economist quoted by Forbes on November 6, 2025, pointed out that there was still a long way to go to the optimal level for the economy, and full stabilization of loan costs would likely only occur at the end of 2026. For mortgage holders, this meant a slow but consistent process of decreasing burdens.

The aforementioned caution of the decision-makers resulted from an analysis of macroeconomic data. Each subsequent decision to cut was preceded by a debate on the impact on the exchange rate. The zloty, as an emerging market currency, reacted to every rate change with great sensitivity. The rate cuts in 2025 took place in the shadow of rising bank capital requirements and the need to maintain the attractiveness of Polish assets for foreign investors. Borrowers gained, but those saving on deposits began to feel a decline in earnings from deposits, as confirmed by INFOR.PL reports from March 2026.

The conflict between the USA and Iran, which intensified in the first half of 2026, became the main brake on further actions by the Monetary Policy Council. Media, including Parkiet and INNPoland, reported unanimously on July 8, 2026, on the pressure on the zloty caused by the geopolitical situation. Investors, fearing the consequences of escalation for global supply chains and energy commodity prices, fled toward safe havens, selling off the currencies of the region's countries. In such conditions, the central bank could not afford aggressive rate cuts, as it would threaten a collapse of the zloty exchange rate, which in turn would translate into an increase in imported inflation.

This geopolitical blockade meant that the plans of many borrowers regarding rapid debt refinancing at lower interest rates were postponed. The Monetary Policy Council faced the necessity of choosing between supporting consumption and protecting currency stability. The latter was chosen. The decision to halt the cycle of cuts in mid-2026 was a signal to the market that the state's financial security is more important than an immediate improvement in liquidity in the household sector.

For a mortgage holder, this meant a period of stagnation. The installment, which had fallen after the autumn 2025 cuts, stopped showing a downward trend. Banks, taking into account geopolitical risk, began to approach loan offers more cautiously, as confirmed by Direct Money forecasts from April 13, 2026. Analysts pointed out that bank margins remain at an elevated level, compensating banks for the risk of market volatility. Loans became cheaper compared to 2024, but they did not become cheap in historical terms.

People with savings found themselves in a more difficult situation. The drop in interest rates from 5.75 percent downward forced them to look for alternative forms of capital investment. Bank deposits ceased to be an attractive source of income, which forced many small investors to move funds to the capital market or into treasury bonds. This redistribution of capital between borrowers and savers is a constant element of monetary policy, but in the conditions of 2026, it became particularly painful due to inflation, which, despite the MPC's efforts, still remained at a level requiring vigilance.

An analysis of forecasts for the end of 2026 indicates the maintenance of the current defensive stance of the Monetary Policy Council. Experts collaborating with financial services emphasize that as long as tensions in the Middle East do not subside and the zloty exchange rate does not return to a stable fluctuation band, any hopes for rapid cuts are premature. Forbes, based on analyses from November 2025, pointed to the end of 2026 as a realistic date for reaching optimal rate parameters. This approach requires patience from borrowers, which the market has not spared recently.

A key factor for the further development of the situation remains the behavior of commercial banks. Faced with uncertainty, these institutions have tightened creditworthiness assessment criteria. Even if the MPC decides on another step down, there is no guarantee that this will automatically translate into an identical drop in loan interest rates for retail clients. The bank margin is a component that banks have direct influence over, and in periods of increased geopolitical risk, banks rarely decide to reduce it.

It is worth noting the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which operates with a delay in Poland. Decisions made in 2024 were fully felt only after several months. Today, in 2026, we are feeling the effects of decisions made at a time when markets expected completely different moves. The MPC has proven that it can maintain independence from immediate political expectations, which in the long term is beneficial for the state's credibility, even if it means a higher installment for an individual borrower for a longer time.

The activity of the Monetary Policy Council is a tightrope walk. On one hand, there is pressure to stimulate GDP growth, and on the other – the necessity to fight inflation, which is extremely difficult with an unstable zloty. Media in July 2026 indicated that the space for further loosening is extremely limited. Every downward move in interest rates with a weak zloty is a risk of more expensive imports, which fuels consumer inflation. Borrowers, counting on lower installments, must therefore take into account that the direct result of such actions could be higher prices in stores, which would negate the gain from the installment cut.

For borrowers, the most important lesson from the years 2024-2026 is understanding that their household budget is directly linked to events happening thousands of kilometers from Poland. The conflict in Iran, decisions of central banks in the USA, or the condition of the Polish zloty are elements of the same puzzle, in which NBP interest rates are only one of the cogs. November 2024 showed that decision-making calm is a defensive tool that allows one to survive the period of greatest volatility.

Expectations for the end of 2026 remain moderate. If the scenario described in Forbes' forecasts proves true, we will witness a slow approach to a rate level that can be called neutral. This does not, however, mean a return to the times of zero interest rates. The era of cheap money has ended, and borrowers must learn to manage their debt in conditions where the cost of capital is a constant, significant element of household maintenance costs.

The conclusions for mortgage holders are clear. The stability of the MPC's decision from 2024 was a necessary buffer. Without it, the current geopolitical turmoil could have led to a crisis in the banking sector. Although the pace of installment decreases does not satisfy everyone, this process is taking place in a controlled and predictable manner, which is a superior value in unstable times. Ahead of us are subsequent months of observation, in which the key parameter will be the zloty exchange rate and stability in the Middle East.

Questions and answers:

Why didn't the MPC cut rates in November 2024?
The Monetary Policy Council decided to maintain rates at 5.75 percent to effectively extinguish inflationary pressure and ensure market stability before starting the cycle of cuts, which was only fully inaugurated a year later.

How does the situation in Iran affect rates in Poland?
Geopolitical tensions involving Iran weaken the zloty exchange rate through investors fleeing from risk. A weak zloty forces the MPC to be cautious, as a rate cut in such conditions could lead to an increase in imported inflation, which blocked further monetary policy loosening in 2026.

When is the optimal rate level expected to be reached?
According to expert opinions published in 2025, reaching the optimal interest rate level in Poland is realistic at the earliest by the end of 2026, provided that the geopolitical and economic situation does not deteriorate further.

Does the current stagnation in MPC decisions mean the end of cuts?
The stagnation of 2026 is not the end of the cycle, but a temporary break caused by external factors. The Monetary Policy Council maintains a defensive stance, treating the current rate level as a necessary safety buffer against sudden spikes in debt servicing costs.

How does a change in rates affect savers?
Rate cuts, although beneficial for borrowers, directly lower the profitability of bank deposits and savings accounts. From the banks' perspective, this is an economic calculation in which relief for debtors is financed by a decline in the profits of those holding capital in cash.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.

NBP interest rates: How did the 2024 decision affect your loan?

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