NBP interest rates: What were they in November 2024?

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council kept NBP interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent. This decision formed the foundation of monetary policy in the face of the macroeconomic challenges of that time. It was a clear signal to the market that the fight against persistent price pressure remained a priority, and that the room for monetary easing had not yet opened.

A wait-and-see strategy: Why was 5.75 percent a necessity?

The Monetary Policy Council meeting held on November 6, 2024, concluded with no changes to interest rate levels. Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent was not a random move. Council members, analyzing inflation data, concluded that premature cuts could undermine stabilization efforts to date. At that time, the economy was in a phase of cooling the inflationary shock, but price dynamics still remained above the NBP target.

The financial market accepted this decision calmly, although many borrowers were hoping for a faster turnaround in central bank policy. Keeping the cost of money at 5.75 percent meant that commercial interest rates, based on WIBOR rates, remained at a high level. For commercial banks, this was a signal to maintain high interest margins, and for mortgage holders – a necessity to continue financing installments based on expensive capital.

Most analysts at the time pointed to caution as the main attribute of the Council's actions. Uncertainty regarding future CPI inflation readings forced policymakers to adopt a defensive stance. Instead of risking demand stimulation through cheap money, the MPC focused on stabilizing the value of the zloty. Such a maneuver was intended to protect the national currency from excessive volatility in the face of an unstable geopolitical environment, which was already beginning to make itself felt in asset valuations in emerging markets.

Transmission mechanisms: How interest rates affected the economy in 2024

The impact of NBP interest rates on the real economy occurs through several transmission channels. In November 2024, the key one was the interest rate channel, directly hitting the wallets of borrowers. Each Council meeting was followed with attention by risk departments in banks, which updated their credit offers. Keeping rates at 5.75 percent meant that the cost of debt servicing did not decrease.

It is worth noting the relationship between the reference rate and the yield of government bonds. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the debt market priced in a long period of elevated rates. Investors, seeing no chance for sharp cuts, did not sell off securities, which helped the government finance the budget deficit. The stability of rates thus became not only a tool for fighting inflation but also an anchor for public finances.

Savers, although they enjoyed relatively high deposit interest rates for some time, began to notice the first signs of a trend change. With inflation slowly losing its momentum, the real interest rate (the difference between deposit interest and the CPI index) began to turn positive. This was a positive phenomenon for capital holders, who could finally protect their savings from erosion, which had been practically impossible in previous years.

Policy evolution: The road to November 2025

After November 2024, the situation in Poland's monetary policy began to slowly evolve. Although stagnation dominated for many months, the autumn of 2025 brought a long-awaited breakthrough. The Monetary Policy Council, seeing improvement in macroeconomic data, decided on the first steps toward monetary policy easing. This cycle was described by financial media, including Bankier.pl, as the "second autumn quarter."

For many observers, this change was not a surprise, but the result of a long-term strategy. The interest rate cuts in 2025 were a response to the fading of inflationary pressure, which in 2024 had forced the MPC to strictly hold its course. However, as economists noted, the mere lowering of rates did not mean an immediate return to the era of cheap money. This process was stretched over time, and its pace depended on the condition of the global economy.

Analyzing this period, one can see a clear difference in the central bank's communication. While in November 2024 the rhetoric of "protecting the value of the zloty" dominated, a year later the narrative shifted toward supporting economic activity. This evolution shows how flexibly, albeit sometimes with a significant delay, the MPC reacted to the changing macroeconomic fundamentals of the country.

Geopolitical shadow: Iran, the USA, and pressure on the zloty in 2026

Entering 2026, Polish monetary policy had to face new challenges. The situation in the Middle East, in particular the escalation of tensions in Iran, began to directly affect investor sentiment. As reported by media, including Parkiet and INNPoland.pl, the zloty came under strong pressure, which limited the room for maneuver for the Monetary Policy Council.

In July 2026, the discussion about interest rates was no longer just about inflation, but also about currency security. High interest rates, which in November 2024 were mainly anti-inflationary in nature, in 2026 acted as a shield protecting the domestic market from capital flight to so-called safe havens. Foreign investors, frightened by geopolitical tensions, withdrew funds from emerging markets, which forced central banks in the region to maintain higher rates than would have resulted from pure economic data analysis.

Such a situation created a difficult compromise for policymakers. On one hand, the economy needed an impulse in the form of lower rates to stimulate private investment. On the other – the international environment did not allow for aggressive cuts without the risk of a sharp weakening of the zloty and the import of inflation through more expensive energy resources. It was this dilemma that caused forecasts regarding reaching the "optimal level" of rates to be pushed to the end of 2026.

Forecasts and reality: Where are we in 2026?

Analyzing the forecasts published in April 2026 by Direct Money, one can see clear disappointment with the pace of change. Market expectations were much more optimistic than the reality that borrowers had to face. Reaching the optimal level, which would ensure a balance between economic growth and price stability, turned out to be a much more difficult task than assumed back in 2024.

Experts emphasize that 2026 is a period of high volatility. The decisions made in 2024 set a certain rhythm from which the Monetary Policy Council could not easily deviate. Every attempt to loosen policy was verified by the currency market. If the zloty lost value, the MPC immediately withdrew from suggestions of further cuts, which often caused frustration among entrepreneurs waiting for lower financing costs.

This juxtaposition of expectations with facts shows how much monetary policy has become a hostage to events over which the central bank has limited influence. Wars, trade conflicts, and the shift in the balance of power in the global economy have made modeling the interest rate path an art of improvisation. For the reader, this means one thing: following MPC decisions cannot be limited only to analyzing domestic CPI. One must look much broader, at what is happening in global decision-making centers.

Impact on the credit market: A lesson from 2024

In retrospect, the decision in November 2024 to keep rates at 5.75 percent was a key reference point for the credit market. Borrowers who took on obligations during the period of low rates had to adjust their household budgets to the new reality of high debt servicing costs. This experience changed the way Poles approach personal finance management.

Instead of relying on forecasts of "cheap credit," households began to seek stabilization in fixed-rate products. The popularity of fixed-rate loans, which began to grow in 2024, was a direct reaction to the uncertainty flowing from MPC meetings. People preferred to pay a little more but have the certainty that their installment would not increase in the event of another inflationary shock.

It is also worth noting that the 2024 decision influenced the real estate market. High interest rates effectively cooled demand for apartments bought on credit. Developers, seeing a decline in the availability of financing, had to revise their investment plans. The market became more selective, and cash clients gained a negotiating advantage. It was this lack of movement in the NBP rate table for many months that was the main factor shaping real estate prices across the country.

Summary: The legacy of 2024 in the current context

In summary, the Monetary Policy Council's decision of November 2024 was an expression of a conservative approach to economic management. Keeping rates at 5.75 percent helped avoid destabilization but simultaneously imposed the burden of high financing costs on society. It was a conscious choice between short-term relief and the long-term stability of the financial system.

Today, looking at the situation in July 2026, this decision appears as one of the elements of a complicated puzzle. Without the determination at that time to fight inflation, today's problems with the zloty exchange rate could be much more severe. Stabilization, although painful for borrowers, created a foundation upon which later monetary policy adjustments could be built.

The Polish economy in 2026 is at a completely different point than it was two years earlier. We have a cycle of cuts behind us, but we still face challenges related to global uncertainty. The history of interest rates in Poland in recent years is a lesson in humility toward market mechanisms. It shows that the central bank, even with the best intentions, is unable to eliminate the impact of external shocks on the daily lives of citizens.

Questions and answers

At what level were interest rates maintained in November 2024?

In November 2024, the MPC kept NBP interest rates at an unchanged level of 5.75 percent.

Why did the MPC not decide to cut rates in November 2024?

The main reason was the need to fight persistent inflation and the desire to stabilize the value of the zloty in conditions of an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

What changed in monetary policy in the autumn of 2025?

In the autumn of 2025, the MPC began a cycle of interest rate cuts, reacting to the fading of inflationary pressure, which was dubbed by the media as the "second autumn quarter."

How does the geopolitical situation in 2026 affect MPC decisions?

Tensions in US-Iran relations and pressure on the zloty exchange rate force the Council to remain cautious and maintain higher interest rates than would result from internal inflation data alone.

When do experts predict reaching the optimal interest rate level?

Forecasts from 2026 indicate that reaching the optimal interest rate level may occur at the earliest at the end of 2026, depending on the development of the international situation.

Did the decision from November 2024 have an impact on the real estate market?

Yes, maintaining high interest rates limited the demand for mortgage loans, which contributed to cooling the real estate market and forced developers to revise investment plans.

What challenges does the MPC face in July 2026?

The biggest challenge is balancing the need to stimulate the economy through lower rates with protecting the zloty from volatility caused by geopolitical conflicts.

Can borrowers count on a quick drop in installments in 2026?

Forecasts suggest that the road to cheap credit is bumpy, and global chaos dictates conditions that do not favor quick cuts, which requires great patience from borrowers.

What was the main goal of NBP policy in 2024?

The overriding goal was a "soft landing" for the economy – extinguishing inflation while avoiding a sharp slowdown in economic activity.

What does the "optimal level" of interest rates mean?

It is the theoretical level of rates at which the economy develops stably, inflation is under control, and financing costs do not excessively burden household and business budgets.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.