Interest rates in August 2026: will borrowers get some relief?

In brief

NBP interest rates in August 2026 remain at 5.75 percent.
Geopolitics, including tensions between the USA and Iran, is a key factor limiting the room for cuts.
Experts point out that a return to an optimal interest rate level is possible no sooner than the end of 2026.

MPC decision: Status quo in August 2026

Borrowers must put their hopes for cheaper money on the shelf. During its July meeting, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision, announced on July 8, 2026, means that in August, the situation for the wallets of those repaying liabilities remains unchanged. The high installments that have accompanied us over the last few months have not budged. For thousands of Polish households, this is a signal that household budgets will remain as burdened as they were before the holidays.

The financial market was counting on a completely different scenario. Earlier forecasts from the spring of 2026 suggested that the cycle of cuts would finally gain momentum, but the MPC chose a conservative path. Members of the Council did not decide on any moves that could destabilize the zloty's exchange rate or further fuel inflation. The unstable international situation proved to be the main brake. The escalation of the conflict in Iran, which was widely discussed at the time of the July decisions, cast a shadow of uncertainty over the central bank's actions. The zloty came under pressure, and this effectively blocked the discussion about rapid monetary policy easing.

The lack of changes in the cost of money is a clear signal to the market that maintaining stability is currently a priority over stimulating the economy. For borrowers, this means a hard reality: repayment schedules will not be adjusted in the coming month. Those hoping for real relief must arm themselves with patience, as the NBP is consistently keeping its finger on the pulse, avoiding risky moves in such an uncertain geopolitical environment. In August 2026, the only certain thing remains the cost of money at an unchanged, high level. All hopes for a change in trend are moving to the autumn.

The impact of geopolitics on the Polish financial market

During its July 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Council maintained interest rates at 5.75 percent. For borrowers, this means a clear message: in August 2026, the amount of installments remains unchanged. Hopes for quick relief have faded into the background, giving way to the hard realities of international uncertainty.

The decision-makers from the MPC do not operate in a vacuum. The situation in the Middle East has become a key brake on any cuts. As indicated in July reports, including those on the INNPoland.pl website, tensions between the USA and Iran have introduced nervousness to capital markets that cannot be ignored. Every troop movement or rhetorical dispute in this region translates directly into the valuation of the zloty. The Polish currency, under strong pressure resulting from global uncertainty, puts the Council on the defensive. Easing monetary policy in such conditions could only deepen the weakness of the domestic currency, which in turn would fuel inflation.

For the average mortgage holder, this means a continuation of the scenario of high debt servicing costs. The financial market priced the chances of a rate change cautiously, and the escalation of the US-Iranian conflict ultimately tipped the scales in favor of the status quo.

Analysts point out that until the dust settles over the Persian Gulf, the room for maneuver for Polish policymakers remains extremely limited. The stability of the zloty has become a priority that outweighs the needs of household budgets. In August, no one should expect surprises in bank interest rate tables. Instead of cuts, we have a political stalemate that is keeping its hand on the wallets of Poles. The wait for real relief for borrowers is dragging on, and geopolitics is setting a pace that cannot be overcome by macroeconomic data alone.

Prospects for borrowers: what's next?

The July decision of the Monetary Policy Council to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent finally cuts off speculation about holiday monetary policy easing. August 2026 therefore brings a status quo, and for hundreds of thousands of Poles repaying mortgage liabilities, this means no relief in the household budget. Installments remain at the current high level, which, in the face of an unstable geopolitical situation, including the escalation of tensions in Iran, turns out to be the only safe move for decision-makers. The zloty is still under pressure, and this effectively ties the central bank's hands regarding the cost of money cuts.

Borrowers must prepare for a long waiting period, because there is currently no real chance for a quick return to the low rates of previous years. The situation remains dynamic and requires vigilance, especially since the market is already pricing in the coming months as a time of increased uncertainty.

Here is what awaits us in the near future:

The lack of interest rate cuts in July translates directly into maintaining high mortgage installments throughout August. None of the analyses to date point to sudden plot twists in the short term.
The need to constantly monitor communications from the MPC becomes a duty for anyone with a variable interest rate. The Council does not give clear signals regarding the easing schedule, and each subsequent decision will be the result of macroeconomic data and events on the international stage.
Stabilization at 5.75 percent is a signal that the fight against inflation and pressure on the currency is still ongoing, which effectively pushes away the vision of a cheaper loan in the coming quarter.

Analysts agree on one thing: as long as the external environment does not improve significantly and the zloty exchange rate does not stabilize permanently, the MPC will maintain a restrictive policy. For the bank client's wallet, this means one thing – you have to plan expenses taking into account the current, high costs of debt servicing.

Inflation and monetary policy in Poland

In July 2026, the Monetary Policy Council decided to maintain interest rates at 5.75 percent. This means that in August 2026, loan installments remain at an unchanged, high level. There is no talk of any relief for people with liabilities based on variable interest rates, who have been struggling with high debt servicing costs for months.

The National Bank of Poland continues to implement a strategy of fighting inflation by maintaining high costs of money. For the Monetary Policy Council, the inflation target remains an absolute priority, even if it comes at the cost of an economic slowdown. The decision-makers have not made any gesture towards borrowers, which clearly shows that the fear of a return of price pressure outweighs the desire to stimulate growth.

The international situation effectively hinders any maneuvers. The escalation of tensions in Iran, which dominated headlines in July, casts a long shadow over Polish monetary decisions. The fear of a weakening zloty and the resulting imported inflation is too great to risk rate cuts. Members of the Council are acting like hostages to their own forecasts, which currently exclude rapid monetary policy easing.

Market expectations, which just a few months ago suggested bolder moves towards cuts, have collided with hard reality. Borrowers must come to terms with the fact that high capital costs are not a temporary episode, but a stable element of the economic landscape for the coming months. This is a cold shower for everyone who was counting on a quick return to significantly lower installments. The July decision is confirmation that in current conditions, no concessions are on the table.

Savers: are deposits still profitable?

The Monetary Policy Council's decision of July 8, 2026, to maintain interest rates at 5.75 percent is unambiguous for capital holders. Stabilization means that banks have no incentive to offer more attractive terms on deposits or savings accounts. If you were counting on a sharp move upwards, you may feel disappointed. The deposit market has frozen in anticipation of more decisive steps from the NBP, and these – as can be seen from the July vote – will not come in the near future.

Here are the key parameters of current monetary policy affecting the market:

NBP reference rate — 5.75 percent (wGospodarce, Parkiet, INNPoland.pl)
Date of the last MPC meeting — July 8, 2026 (wGospodarce, Parkiet, INNPoland.pl)
Forecasted date for reaching the optimal level — end of 2026 (Forbes)

The lack of changes in the Council's decisions is a signal for the banking sector to continue maintaining margins at the current level. Since the cost of money for commercial banks has not fallen, there is no pressure to lower interest rates on savings products, but there are also no incentives to raise them. The international situation, including tensions between the USA and Iran, effectively ties the hands of decision-makers. The zloty remains under pressure, which further discourages easing monetary policy in the middle of the holidays.

Savers must prepare for a long period of stagnation. Money in accounts will not lose value rapidly due to cuts, but a real profit remains in the realm of wishes. Banks simply do not have to fight for deposits, since the macroeconomic situation, fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, has kept rates in place.

Forecasts for the end of 2026

August 2026 did not bring the relief that many were looking for to borrowers. In July, the Monetary Policy Council maintained interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision, dictated by a cool assessment of the macroeconomic situation, including geopolitical unrest affecting the zloty, means that household budgets remain under the same pressure as in previous months.

Looking towards the end of 2026, the picture of the future remains hazy. Experts were already dampening excessive optimism last autumn. As Forbes analysts pointed out in November 2025, a return to an optimal interest rate level is possible no sooner than the end of 2026. This is a distant date, which for many households means the need to continue tightening their belts.

The market is struggling with a large dose of uncertainty regarding the pace of monetary policy easing. Analysts are grappling with how strong the factors hindering the MPC's decisions on cuts will be. The international tensions written about in the context of the July decision may effectively block the dovish wing in the Council. The zloty under pressure is an argument that the MPC will not ignore.

Will December bring a breakthrough? At the moment, there is no hard data confirming a quick scenario of cuts. Borrowers must prepare for a conservative variant. Instead of counting on sudden drops in installments, it seems rational to plan finances based on the current, high costs of money. If the Council does indeed decide to make a move in the last quarter, it will likely be very cautious so as not to stir up inflation. Hopes for a return to cheap credit in 2026 currently seem futile. The financial reality remains brutal.

What this means for you

For borrowers, the MPC decision means a continued burden on household budgets with high installments. On the other hand, savers can count on the maintenance of current, moderate deposit interest rates. The catch remains the international situation, which at any moment may force the NBP to change its rhetoric.

Questions and answers

Did NBP interest rates rise in August 2026?

No, rates remained at an unchanged level of 5.75 percent, in accordance with the decisions made by the MPC in July 2026.

When can interest rate cuts be expected?

Expert forecasts indicate that reaching an optimal interest rate level may happen no sooner than the end of 2026.

How does the situation in Iran affect MPC decisions?

Geopolitical tensions exert pressure on the zloty and increase market uncertainty, which prompts the MPC to be cautious in lowering interest rates.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.