NBP interest rates: how much are they and what do they mean for your wallet?

In brief

The main NBP reference rate has been 5.75 percent since November 2024.
The MPC's decision to stabilize rates directly influenced the amount of mortgage installments based on the WIBOR index.
The geopolitical situation, including tensions between the USA and Iran, remains a significant risk factor for future decisions on changing interest rate levels.

The November 2024 MPC decision: a foundation of stability

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council made a decision crucial to the wallets of Poles: to keep NBP interest rates unchanged at 5.75 percent. This was a predictable move, fully in line with market expectations at the time. Analysts unanimously pointed out that in the face of the inflationary situation then, more drastic maneuvers with the cost of money could have caused more harm than good.

For millions of borrowers whose obligations are based on variable interest rates, this resolution meant a breath of relief. Maintaining the reference rate at the same level acted as a safety brake for zloty-denominated loan installments. Instead of looking for funds to cover further increases in interest costs, households gained at least an illusion of predictability, which was a scarce commodity at that time. The stabilization of debt servicing costs allowed many families to maintain financial liquidity, although it did not bring measurable savings on a monthly scale.

Economists noted that the MPC chose a wait-and-see strategy. The decision was not an expression of optimism, but rather caution, forced by uncertainty regarding price dynamics. The market accepted this without surprise, having already priced in the lack of movement from the Council. From the perspective of today's wallet, that freezing of rates became a reference point from which we began counting down to more decisive monetary policy corrections in subsequent quarters. However, it is worth remembering that while stabilization was beneficial for the indebted, those saving in bank deposits had to come to terms with the lack of growth in capital gains. Stopping the cycle of changes was therefore a double-edged sword, which in November 2024 evenly distributed the burden of economic reality between the two sides of the banking counter.

Impact on borrowers: debt servicing costs

Stabilization is the word that best describes the current situation of people paying off mortgages. The main NBP reference rate was maintained at 5.75 percent in November 2024, which stabilized the costs of servicing zloty-denominated loans for millions of Poles. This decision by the Monetary Policy Council set a direction that we have felt in household budgets for a long time.

Keeping rates at 5.75 percent means no changes in the amount of installments for loans based on variable interest rates. For many households that followed the Council's meetings with anxiety, this is a message of predictability. The WIBOR index, which is the base for most loans in Poland, remains correlated with MPC decisions. Since the main cost of money in the country is standing still, capital and interest installments have not undergone the sharp fluctuations to which the variable monetary policy of previous years had accustomed us.

However, the question about the future remains. Although the current level of 5.75 percent gives borrowers a breather, the market is still alive with speculation regarding potential moves up or down. Investors are carefully watching external factors, from the geopolitical situation to inflation, which could force the MPC to change its stance. Every piece of information about a potential rate cut raises hopes for cheaper credit, while the threat of hikes causes nervousness in the banking sector.

For the average borrower, the key is that the lack of a decision to change rates is positive information in this case. No news is good news. As long as the Council does not move, the wallets of people with variable interest rates will not feel an additional burden, which in current market conditions is a more than acceptable result.

Geopolitics and monetary policy: why didn't rates fall?

Decisions of the Monetary Policy Council are not made in a vacuum, although many borrowers would like them to depend solely on the condition of the domestic economy. The reality, however, is different, which is clearly visible in the final months of 2026. The main NBP reference rate was maintained at 5.75 percent in November 2024, which stabilized the costs of servicing zloty-denominated loans for millions of Poles, but since then, persistent uncertainty in international markets has effectively blocked the Council from taking the next step toward easing monetary policy.

The biggest brake for NBP decision-makers has become the situation in the Middle East. The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran is not just headlines in news services, but a real destabilizing factor that exerts direct pressure on the zloty and energy prices. When the price of oil rises and the Polish currency loses value in the face of armed conflicts, the MPC must maintain far-reaching restraint. A rate cut in such an environment could be read by markets as a sign of weakness and an invitation to further sell off the zloty, which translates directly into an increase in imported inflation.

For the average borrower, this means a state of suspension. The lack of a downward move, to which many analysts had become accustomed in their forecasts, is the price for attempting to maintain exchange rate stability. The Monetary Policy Council is thus choosing the lesser evil: it prefers to maintain slightly higher debt costs than to risk a sharp weakening of the currency. In current geopolitical realities, there is practically no room for rapid monetary policy easing. Every sharp move on the Washington–Tehran line immediately extinguishes hopes for cheaper loan installments, reminding us that the wallets of Poles are directly linked to events happening thousands of kilometers from Warsaw.

Savers in 2026: are deposits still profitable?

The main NBP reference rate was maintained at 5.75 percent in November 2024, which stabilized the costs of servicing zloty-denominated loans for millions of Poles. From the perspective of August 2026, however, this monetary anchor has become a trap for savers. The banking market, not under pressure from further hikes, has stopped fighting for deposits. Deposit offers that until recently tempted with high interest rates are now just a memory, and banks have no interest in offering clients higher margins.

If you are counting on passive income, you must verify your expectations. The lack of movement from the Monetary Policy Council – despite geopolitical tensions, including the escalation in Iran or pressure on the zloty exchange rate – has caused the Polish banking system to enter a phase of stagnation. Today, you are basically just storing money in a savings account, not growing it in real terms.

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent limits the growth of bank deposit interest rates because financial institutions do not have to compete for capital at the expense of their own margins.
The real rate of return on savings remains strictly dependent on the current inflation rate in 2026, which determines whether the profit from the deposit will not be entirely consumed by the rise in prices of goods and services.

The catch is simple. In 2026, the winner is the one who looks for alternatives, not the one who believes in the loyalty of the bank. Keeping capital in standard deposits under the current MPC policy is a defensive strategy, often leading to a slow but systematic loss of the purchasing power of savings. Financial institutions are playing for time, and you, as a client, in this scenario get only as much as they have to give you. Not a penny more.

MPC forecasts: what to expect in the future?

The monetary situation in Poland remains in suspension. A key reference point for the debate on the cost of money remains the Monetary Policy Council's decision from November 2024, when the main NBP reference rate was maintained at 5.75 percent. This move stabilized the costs of servicing zloty-denominated loans for millions of Poles, but since that moment, the market has been constantly looking for further signals.

Today, moods are far from enthusiastic. August 2026 brings uncertainty, fueled by reports of escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, which, according to INNPoland.pl analyses, exerts pressure on the zloty and limits the room for maneuver for the MPC. The market is carefully watching the statements published after each Council decision, feverishly looking for signals regarding potential cuts in the future. Each meeting is treated as a potential breakthrough, however, hard data suggest that the dovish attitude of Council members is being hampered by global geopolitical risks.

Experts at TotalMoney.pl and other financial institutions regularly publish analyses regarding the future path of interest rates, trying to guess the intentions of decision-makers. Analyses published in April 2026 by Direct Money show that forecasts are volatile and strongly dependent on external supply shocks. Delving into these forecasts shows that analysts are divided: some assume stagnation, others allow for a correction only in the longer term.

The catch is that even if the MPC decides to cut, the benefits for wallets will be ambiguous. A rate cut is a relief for borrowers, but at the same time a blow to the profitability of savings, which was confirmed by reports from INFOR.PL as early as March of this year. The reader must therefore remember that every forecast is only a scenario, and the real path of rates still depends on factors over which the Polish central bank has limited influence.

Summary: key data for your wallet

For the wallet of the average Pole, the most important reference point remains the Monetary Policy Council's decision from November 2024. It was then that the main reference rate was set at 5.75 percent. This specific number forms the foundation of credit calculations, which in recent months have ceased to resemble a rollercoaster. The stabilization of this parameter allowed millions of households to breathe and realistically plan their household budget, although financial markets are constantly pricing in future MPC moves, reacting to every signal coming from the country and the world.

Investors and borrowers, however, must remain vigilant. The macroeconomic situation in mid-2026 is far from predictable. Geopolitical tensions, including the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, and the instability of energy commodity prices are exerting pressure on the zloty. This directly affects inflation, and consequently – potential decisions on maintaining or changing the cost of money in Poland. The current stagnation of rates does not mean that the topic of hikes or cuts has completely disappeared from the agenda. On the contrary.

Here is a summary of the most important data that has a real impact on your finances:

NBP reference rate — 5.75 percent (decision from November 2024)
Main risk factor (geopolitics) — tensions between the USA and Iran, affecting markets (source: INNPoland.pl, 08.07.2026)
Exchange rate stability — zloty under pressure in the face of global conflicts (source: INNPoland.pl, 08.07.2026)
Energy prices — risk of rising energy commodity costs as a threat to inflation targets (source: Parkiet, 08.07.2026)

Let us remember that every forecast, even one from renowned analysts, is only a scenario. In current conditions, it is not algorithms, but the development of the international situation that will dictate the pace of changes in the wallets of Poles. It is worth watching not only the rates themselves, but above all the condition of the zloty, which reacts most quickly to global shocks.

What this means for you

Maintaining interest rates at 5.75 percent is a 'wait-and-see' strategy. Borrowers benefit from this, as their installments have not increased, but savers lose out, as banks have no pressure to drastically raise deposit interest rates. The catch lies in inflation – if it starts to rise in 2026, the MPC may be forced to revise its policy.

Questions and answers

Why are interest rates in Poland at 5.75 percent?

This level was set in November 2024 as a response to the macroeconomic situation at the time and the need for price stabilization.

Do tensions in Iran affect my loans?

Yes, geopolitical unrest affects the valuation of the zloty and inflationary pressure, which forces the MPC to be cautious in making decisions about rate cuts.

When can interest rate changes be expected?

MPC decisions depend on current inflation data and economic forecasts; the financial market constantly monitors every statement from the central bank.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.