NBP interest rates in August 2026: Will loans become cheaper?

In brief

The Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at an unchanged level in July 2026.
The main factor hindering the easing of monetary policy is the uncertainty associated with the escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran.
No changes in rates mean the stabilization of debt servicing costs for borrowers in August 2026.

MPC decision from July 2026: Strategic waiting

Market expectations were brutally verified on July 8, 2026. The Monetary Policy Council, contrary to the voices of analysts counting on a loosening of monetary policy, decided to keep interest rates at their current level. For millions of Poles paying off housing loans, this means one thing: in August 2026, the amount of installments remains unchanged. The lack of movement from the Council is not accidental.

MPC members have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Instead of opening the way to cheaper money, they opted for conservative risk management. It is no secret that in the background of the deliberations, not only domestic inflation data were weighed, but above all the geopolitical situation. Tensions between the USA and Iran, which again dominated media headlines in July, effectively stripped policymakers of arguments for a quick reduction in the cost of credit. The zloty, under pressure from external threats, requires stabilization, not experiments.

This approach means that hopes for relief in household budgets are postponed to an indefinite autumn. The Council's conservative course means that those counting on a drop in loan interest rates must arm themselves with patience. The MPC is clearly afraid that cutting rates too early could fuel inflation expectations, which no one wants to risk in the current unstable international situation.

For the borrower, the August stabilization is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the lack of hikes is a signal of a certain predictability; on the other, freezing installments at the current level in conditions of still-high living costs is a real burden for many households. The Council sent a clear signal: for now, the priority remains a safe haven, not the stimulation of consumption. Will such a strategy be enough to protect the economy from external shocks? We will only know the answer during the next meetings.

Geopolitics as a brake: The impact of the crisis in Iran

The Monetary Policy Council left no illusions during its July meeting: interest rates are staying put. The lack of changes means that in August 2026, mortgage holders will not feel any relief in their installments, and debt servicing costs remain at their current high level. The decision-makers from Świętokrzyska Street were clearly frightened by what is happening in the Middle East.

The escalation of tensions between the USA and Iran is currently the main factor paralyzing any moves toward easing monetary policy. The energy commodities market reacted nervously, which translates into a real risk of rising fuel and energy prices in Poland. For the Council members, this is a warning signal. Any rate cut in the face of such an uncertain international situation could be perceived as a mistake that would only fuel inflationary pressure. MPC members therefore prefer to sit on their hands rather than risk additional turbulence in the economy.

This mechanism is simple: destabilization in an oil-rich region hits our wallets directly through gas stations and electricity bills. If the cost of living starts to rise due to external factors, the MPC will have no room for maneuver to make cuts, even if the domestic economic situation required it. We are observing a classic scenario in which the foreign policy of powers becomes a direct hostage to the average Pole's household budget. For now, the economy is being monitored for this pressure, but there is no point in counting on a quick return to cheaper lending. The situation remains tense, and borrowers must arm themselves with patience, because the key to their financial peace currently lies thousands of kilometers from Warsaw.

Building of the National Bank of Poland in Warsaw.

The situation of borrowers in August 2026

The Monetary Policy Council decided in July 2026 to keep interest rates at an unchanged level. This decision is binding for the credit market in August. Holders of mortgage obligations must prepare for a continuation of the status quo. The lack of changes in NBP monetary policy parameters directly translates into the amount of monthly obligations. This means no relief for household budgets, which still have to bear the burden of loans set in previous months.

The stabilization of interest rates is the result of a cautious approach by the central bank, which, in the face of geopolitical tensions, including the escalation in Iran, did not decide to loosen monetary policy. The zloty remains under pressure, which further limits the room for maneuver for Council members. For a person paying off a mortgage, this means concrete financial consequences:

No changes in NBP rates mean no change in the reference rate, which automatically excludes an automatic downward correction of loan interest rates.
The costs of variable-rate loans remain at the level set in previous months, without any relief for the borrower's wallet.
The stabilization of rates limits the chances of a quick drop in installments for mortgage holders, which forces continued expenditure planning taking into account current, high debt servicing costs.

Expectations for cheaper credit in August proved futile. The market, reacting to signals from the MPC, is no longer pricing in any moves in the near future. For the average borrower, the prospect of cuts is receding, and the economic situation suggests a long period of waiting for any change in trend. Commercial banks, having no impulse from the NBP, maintain margins and base rates at their current level. Hopes for a quick improvement in household financial liquidity have been definitively cut off.

Zloty exchange rate under pressure from global uncertainty

The August stabilization of interest rates in Poland does not take place in a vacuum, but in the shadow of growing geopolitical turbulence. The Monetary Policy Council's decision from July 2026, which froze the cost of money at its current level, is a direct response to instability in international markets. For loan holders, this means one thing: in August, the amount of monthly installments remains unchanged. The lack of relief for borrowers' wallets is, however, the price we pay for attempting to maintain the relative stability of the national currency.

The zloty is currently in a difficult position. Global geopolitical risks, including tensions between the USA and Iran, effectively discourage investors from placing capital in emerging market assets. The situation is further complicated by a strong dollar, which drains capital from regions considered less safe. In this context, every move by the MPC is analyzed through the prism of the PLN/USD exchange rate. If the Council had decided on a premature loosening of monetary policy, it could have triggered a wave of selling of the zloty, weakening it even further against major world currencies.

Council members clearly decided that fighting inflation and caring for the valuation of the national currency currently have priority over immediate relief for borrowers. This is a safe approach, but for the average Pole with a mortgage in their wallet, it simply means the continuation of current burdens. Foreign investors are watching these moves with attention, waiting for signals on whether Polish monetary authorities will maintain their course in the face of global turmoil. For the moment, however, the status quo is winning over the hope for cheaper money.

Currency exchange board in one of the Warsaw banks.

Economic forecasts for the end of 2026

The Monetary Policy Council decided in July 2026 to keep interest rates at an unchanged level, which means that in August 2026, loan installments remain unchanged. This decision closed speculation about summer moves in NBP tables, but did not silence the discussion about what will happen in the autumn. Analysts point to the need to monitor core inflation in the coming quarters. It will be the main point of reference for Council members, who must maneuver between cooling the economy and the risk of recession.

Experts warn that the calm in August is just the calm before the storm. Forecasts from April 2026 indicated possible volatility, which is currently materializing. The unstable geopolitical situation, including tensions between the USA and Iran, casts a shadow on the zloty exchange rate, which directly affects decisions made at Świętokrzyska Street. The MPC currently has no room for maneuver as long as the external environment remains so unpredictable.

The real test for the current strategy will be macroeconomic data from the autumn. Key to further decisions will be GDP data for the third quarter of 2026. If the economy slows down faster than budget assumptions, the pressure for rate cuts will certainly increase. For the moment, the market must reconcile itself with the cost of money, which remains high, and borrowers cannot count on relief in their household budgets.

Below is a summary of forecasts and indicators that shape the current economic picture:

MPC decision (July 2026) — maintaining rates at an unchanged level (source: wGospodarce, 08.07.2026)
Zloty situation — under geopolitical pressure (source: INNPoland.pl, 08.07.2026)
Context of forecasts (April 2026) — expected economic volatility (source: Direct Money, 13.04.2026)
Point of reference for future decisions — GDP data for Q3 2026 (source: Parkiet, 08.07.2026)

For the wallets of Poles, this means one thing. The stabilization of WIBOR rates is temporary, and every subsequent decision of the Council will now be a hostage to hard data from GDP and core inflation reports.

Savers vs. debtors: Who gains from the status quo?

The Monetary Policy Council decided during its July 2026 meeting to keep interest rates at an unchanged level. This move has a direct translation into August 2026. For millions of borrowers, this means one thing: the lack of any relief in monthly obligations. Installments remain at their current level, and expectations for cheaper credit must be postponed. The situation is binary.

On the other side of the barricade are savers. Maintaining rates is a clear signal of stabilization for them, favoring people with bank deposits and savings accounts. Capital placed in banks does not lose its attractiveness, which in the current economic reality constitutes a safe haven. While the indebted struggle with high debt servicing costs, cash holders can count on the maintenance of interest on their deposits. This is a mechanism in which one social group in practice finances the fight against inflation, and the other gains from it.

The MPC's decision is not accidental. The central bank's main goal remains stabilizing inflation expectations, which still do not give policymakers peace. The Council must take into account external factors, including growing geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation of the conflict in Iran. These global shocks directly affect the zloty exchange rate and price pressure in the country. In the face of such great uncertainty, MPC members decided that any rate cuts would be premature and risky. August is therefore a month of continuing the adopted strategy: savers gain certainty, and borrowers must continue to tighten their belts, waiting for better signals from the market.

Financial analyst analyzing inflation charts.

What this means for you

For the average Pole, the MPC decision means stabilization, but not an improvement in the financial situation. People with savings in banks gain, while borrowers must arm themselves with patience – there will be no cheap credit in August due to global political uncertainty.

Questions and answers

Will my loan installments drop in August 2026?

No, due to the maintenance of interest rates by the MPC in July, the amount of installments remains at the current level.

Why is the MPC not lowering interest rates?

The main reason is the uncertain geopolitical situation, including the conflict between the USA and Iran, which creates inflationary risks.

When can we expect further decisions regarding rates?

The Monetary Policy Council makes decisions cyclically; subsequent meetings will depend on incoming data on inflation and the international situation.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.