NBP interest rates: Will we return to the 2024 level?

In brief

In November 2024, the MPC kept interest rates at 5.75 percent, which was a key reference point for the credit market.
In 2025, there was a series of cuts, but in July 2026, this process was halted by the unstable international situation.
The escalation of the conflict in Iran currently poses the main risk to the zloty and inflation, which effectively blocks the MPC's plans for further monetary easing.

November 2024: Foundations of interest rate stabilization

November 2024 remains a reference point in monetary policy that analysts return to with almost reverent awe. At that time, the National Bank of Poland's Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision was neither accidental nor dictated by a momentary impulse. The Council members stood firm: the priority remained the fight against persistently high inflation, which was draining the wallets of Poles, and the desire to stabilize the shaky banking sector. Any downward move at that time seemed like a dangerous gamble.

Today, in mid-August 2026, the situation on the geopolitical map looks quite different, and the chill of the November stabilization from two years ago seems like a distant memory. Instead of internal problems with the prices of goods and services, a global shock has become the main brake for NBP decision-makers. The escalation of the conflict in Iran has overturned scenarios that seemed almost certain as recently as the spring. Financial markets are reacting nervously, the zloty is under constant pressure, and the prospect of monetary easing has disappeared from the horizon.

The economic landscape at the end of 2024 looked completely different. Back then, the economy needed calm and predictability, which, in the Council's assessment at the time, was provided by maintaining the cost of money at 5.75 percent. Today, this level has become a painful anchor for many borrowers that cannot be loosened. While two years ago the MPC's decisions were the result of cold inflationary mathematics, the current stagnation is the effect of fear of global destabilization. Back then, we were fighting for the value of money within the country. Now, in August 2026, we are fighting to ensure that an external conflict in the Middle East does not irreversibly destabilize the Polish financial system. The transition from fighting domestic inflation to managing geopolitical risk shows how much the nature of the challenges for the National Bank of Poland has changed.

Breakthrough 2025: A short period of optimism and cuts

In November 2024, the Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at 5.75 percent. This decision closed that year in an atmosphere of stagnation, which became a source of considerable frustration for millions of borrowers. The financial market got used to the lack of movement, although hopes for monetary easing smoldered in analysts' forecasts for subsequent quarters. No one assumed then that it would be the situation in the Middle East that would turn out to be the main barrier to future cuts.

The situation only changed in the autumn of 2025. In November of that year, the MPC decided to cut interest rates, which was the second such decision in a short period. The Bankier.pl service pointed out at the time that the market perceived this move as a clear, long-awaited signal of moving away from restrictive monetary policy. It seemed that the economy had entered a phase of the cycle in which the cost of money would systematically fall, bringing relief to household budgets.

Today, in mid-August 2026, there is no trace left of that short period of optimism. The Council has halted easing, and the main reason is not just the state of domestic inflation, but global geopolitical chaos. The escalation of the conflict in Iran and direct tensions between the USA and Iran have effectively blocked the space for further cuts. Uncertainty in commodity markets, price volatility of oil, and enormous pressure on the zloty have caused Polish decision-makers to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Borrowers who were counting on a quick return to the conditions of two years ago must revise their expectations. Geopolitics has brutally collided with domestic monetary policy, and there can be no talk of a return to the low rates of 2024 under current conditions.

Headquarters of the National Bank of Poland in Warsaw.

July 2026: Geopolitics hampers NBP ambitions

The July decision of the Monetary Policy Council to keep interest rates unchanged was a cold shower for many observers. The market was waiting for further cuts, but the Council members ignored these expectations, firmly sticking to the existing parameters. This is a clear signal that we can forget about a return to monetary easing policy for now.

The international situation is proving to be the main brake. The escalation of the conflict in Iran immediately translated into global fuel markets. Oil prices hit the foundations of inflation forecasts, forcing the MPC to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. The turmoil in the Middle East is not without impact on our country. As INNPoland.pl points out, the Polish zloty remains under strong pressure precisely because of this uncertain geopolitical situation. A weaker currency means more expensive imports, and more expensive imports are a direct path to cementing the inflation that the central bank wants to avoid at all costs.

This turn of events puts borrowers who were counting on relief in their monthly installments in a difficult position. Let us recall: as recently as November 2024, the MPC decided to keep rates at 5.75 percent. Although nearly two years have passed since then, dreams of returning to those levels have collided with the brutal reality of global tensions.

Today the situation is different than in 2024. Back then, we were discussing the pace of cuts; today, the main concern of decision-makers in Warsaw is how much external shocks can drive up prices in Polish stores. If the conflict in Iran does not subside, the chances for a downward move in the coming months become illusory. Investors who were counting on a quick turnaround must prepare for a long stabilization.

Impact on loan installments: What does this mean for your wallet?

Maintaining interest rates at the current level means a definitive lack of decrease in capital and interest installments for borrowers. The wallets of Poles who were counting on relief in their household budgets must prepare for further belt-tightening. The Monetary Policy Council's decision not to cut rates in August 2026 is not accidental. It results directly from geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which effectively paralyzes optimistic scenarios assuming cheaper money.

The market has been in a state of suspension for months. As early as April 13, 2026, Direct Money forecasts indicated great uncertainty about the pace of further cuts in the second half of the year. As you can see, these fears proved to be fully justified. Instead of the dreamed-of improvement in household financial liquidity, we are dealing with hard braking on the part of the NBP. The zloty is under pressure, and decision-makers are afraid to risk any moves that could destabilize the exchange rate in such unstable times. The situation is as follows:

Reference rate in November 2024 — 5.75 percent (Business Insider Polska, 05.11.2025)
Forecast of the pace of cuts in the second half of 2026 — uncertain (Direct Money, 13.04.2026)
Reason for no cuts in July 2026 — escalation of the conflict in Iran (Parkiet, 08.07.2026)

Borrowers are stuck at a dead end. Comparing the current situation to November 2024, it is clear that we are standing still. Keeping rates at 5.75 percent is a blow to many families, especially since inflation can still surprise and the cost of living does not let up. Banks have no basis to offer lower installments, so every mortgage holder must come to terms with the current burden. The optimism that accompanied the market as recently as last autumn has evaporated in the shadow of reports about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This is not the time for planning overpayments or loan holidays, but for maintaining financial liquidity at the current high cost of debt servicing.

Financial analyst analyzing interest rate charts.

Economic forecasts for the end of 2026

The prospects for Poles' wallets for the end of 2026 are becoming increasingly unclear. Market analysts, who until recently were counting on a quick return to cheap money policy, are now revising their forecasts. It is difficult to be optimistic when the main brake for the Monetary Policy Council has ceased to be domestic indicators and has become events taking place thousands of kilometers from Warsaw.

In November 2024, the MPC kept rates at 5.75 percent, and at that time the discussion revolved around the domestic fight against inflation. Today, in August 2026, the situation looks completely different. The decisions not to cut rates result directly from geopolitical instability and the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which is destabilizing commodity markets. The zloty, under constant pressure in the face of tensions between the USA and Iran, effectively ties the hands of the Council members. Possible interest rate cuts could further weaken our currency, fueling imported inflation.

Forecasting further MPC moves is like reading tea leaves. In a report published on July 13, 2026, TotalMoney.pl explicitly pointed to the lack of a clear path for cuts in the face of volatile macroeconomic data. Experts emphasize that the margin of error is currently minimal.

Here is what most strongly determines the scenario for the coming months:

Inflation, which still does not give the MPC a signal to ease monetary policy, despite attempts to stabilize prices.
The exchange rate of the zloty, extremely sensitive to every negative message coming from the Middle East.
The situation in the energy and industrial sectors, where uncertainty about raw material costs blocks long-term investments.

For borrowers, this means one thing: dreams of installments at 2024 levels must be put on the shelf. If the conflict in Iran does not subside and the zloty does not regain its vigor, the MPC will prefer to wait out the storm in its current, conservative stance rather than risk destabilizing the economy. Keeping rates at a high level has become our new, uncomfortable normal.

Summary of institutional positions

The situation from November 2024, when the Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at an unchanged level of 5.75 percent, seems like distant history today. Currently, the market is colliding with completely different challenges, and hopes for cheap credit have been brutally verified by geopolitical reality.

As recently as November 6, 2025, "Forbes" analysts warned that after a series of autumn cuts, the market had started celebrating cheap money too early. The optimism proved premature, and today's stagnation is a direct result of this. Experts have no doubts: we have returned to square one, only with a burden of new risks.

The most significant of these is the situation in the Middle East. As an analysis by "Parkiet" from July 8, 2026, indicated, the escalation of the conflict in Iran is the main risk factor hindering any MPC moves toward monetary easing. The market reacted nervously to this. Investors who were counting on quick cuts had to revise their models. The zloty remains under pressure, and the Council, aware of external instability, prefers not to take risks that could further destabilize the domestic currency.

Comparing these two periods, a clear change in narrative is visible. In 2024, the discussion revolved around domestic inflation and consumer purchasing power. Today, the focus is on energy security and geopolitics, over which the NBP has marginal influence. Borrowers waiting for a return to the conditions of two years ago must arm themselves with patience. Tensions in Iran have effectively cemented the Council's decisions, freezing rates at levels that remain a heavy burden for many households. The optimistic forecasts from a few months ago can now be put on the shelf labeled "outdated."

Zloty under pressure – a symbolic shot of the currency and the stock exchange.

What this means for you

For the average Pole, this means an extension of the period of high debt servicing costs. Those saving on deposits gain, while holders of mortgage loans based on WIBOR lose. The catch is the unstable situation abroad (Iran), which makes it impossible for the NBP to return to a cheap money policy.

Questions and answers

Will interest rates fall to the 2024 level in 2026?

In July 2026, the MPC kept rates at a high level, pointing to geopolitical risks, which excludes a quick return to lower costs of money.

How does the situation in Iran affect my loan installment?

Tensions in Iran are destabilizing financial markets and the zloty exchange rate, which forces the MPC to maintain higher interest rates to protect the economy from inflation.

When can the next MPC decision be expected?

The schedule of MPC meetings is fixed, but each subsequent decision depends on current inflation data and the development of international conflicts.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.