NBP interest rates: will we return to the 2024 level?

In July 2026, the RPP kept interest rates unchanged, reacting to geopolitical pressure, which pushes back the prospect of a return to the 5.75 percent level from November 2024 in the near future. NBP policymakers concluded that volatility in international markets poses too great a risk to the stability of the zloty to allow for further monetary easing. Borrowers must come to terms with the fact that debt servicing costs will remain at their current high level for the coming months, which definitively ends hopes for a quick return to the conditions of two years ago.

The evolution of interest rates: from November 2024 to July 2026

The historical reference point of the 5.75 percent reference rate from November 2024 has ceased to be a realistic target for the financial market and has become merely a memory of a period when the Polish economy was trying to catch its breath after a wave of inflation. The autumn of 2025 brought temporary optimism. At that time, after a series of October and November meetings, the Monetary Policy Council decided on cuts, which many economists interpreted as the beginning of a lasting downward trend in the cost of money. The market believed that the autumn "quarter-point" was just the beginning of broad easing.

The July 2026 decision brutally verified these expectations. Members of the Council, instead of following the path of cuts, opted for a defensive stance. This change in strategy is a direct response to the uncertainty that dominated global markets in the middle of the year. Instead of a smooth return to lower rates, we are dealing with a firm hold on the monetary anchor. Borrowers who expected relief in their installments must now analyze not only NBP communiqués but, above all, dispatches from commodity and geopolitical markets.

The stabilization of rates at the current level is not the result of a lack of data on weakening GDP dynamics or slowing private consumption. It is a conscious decision to protect the purchasing power of the zloty in conditions where any decision to cut rates could trigger a wave of currency sell-offs. The market does not forgive mistakes, and the Polish central bank cannot afford the risk of imported inflation, which, in the face of turmoil in the Middle East, could spiral out of control in just a few weeks.

The logic behind the RPP's actions has become predictable in its conservative nature. If the external environment is unstable, the price of money in Poland must remain high. Such a strategy is painful for the private sector, but in the eyes of policymakers, it constitutes a necessary shield. A return to 5.75 percent would require not only the extinguishing of armed conflicts but, above all, the permanent anchoring of inflation at the NBP target. For now, with wage pressure still high and energy prices uncertain, such a scenario remains out of reach.

Headquarters of the National Bank of Poland in Warsaw.

Geopolitics as a brake on cuts

Tensions between the USA and Iran are not just headlines in news services. For the Monetary Policy Council, they are a real cost factor that influences every meeting in Warsaw. This conflict destabilizes oil and gas prices, which directly translates into inflation expectations in Poland. If raw materials become more expensive on global markets, the Polish consumer will feel it at the fuel pump and in energy bills. The RPP, observing these movements, cannot afford the luxury of lowering rates when the risk of a supply shock is so high.

An analysis by the portal parkiet.com indicates that the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East forced the central bank to change its priorities. Just a few months ago, the main challenge was the fight to stimulate investment through cheaper credit. Today, the priority is maintaining exchange rate stability. A weak zloty combined with low interest rates is a simple recipe for the flight of foreign capital from the Polish debt market. The RPP understands this mechanism perfectly and therefore prefers to endure pressure from borrowers rather than face a collapse in the exchange rate.

Innpoland.pl noted that as long as US-Iranian relations remain on a knife-edge, the RPP will not risk easing policy. This is a vicious circle in which the Polish economy must endure. On one hand, we have growth ambitions; on the other, external energy blackmail. For the average borrower, this means that their installment will not fall at the pace counted on in the financial model prepared back in 2025. The market is increasingly realizing that it is not local economic indicators, but events thousands of kilometers from Warsaw, that dictate the conditions in our wallets today.

It is worth noting the behavior of institutional investors. When the RPP communicates no changes, foreign capital greets this news with relief as a signal of no "dovish" turn. Rate stabilization is the price the Polish economy pays for peace in the currency market. This cost is passed directly onto households with loans based on the variable WIBOR rate. This is cruel mathematics, in which geopolitics wins over social interest.

The situation of borrowers in mid-2026

The July 2026 decision is a moment of disappointment for many families. Borrowers were counting on the easing process started in the autumn of 2025 to continue. Instead, they found stagnation. The amount of monthly installments remains burdensome, and the prospect of their reduction has been pushed into the future. The real estate market reacted to this by holding its breath – developers are reporting a decline in interest in new premises, which is a direct result of persistently high financing costs.

The relationship between the Council's decisions and the real cost of Poles' debt is currently almost mathematical. Business Insider Polska has repeatedly pointed out that every month of keeping rates at the current level is a real loss in household budgets. When the RPP stands still, borrowers' wallets feel no improvement, and capital costs remain at a high, burdensome level. Borrowers are stuck at a dead end, where every subsequent decision of "no change" is perceived as a silent verdict on the financial stability of many families.

In mid-2026, the situation looks as follows:
- No significant cuts in the second half of the year (source: TotalMoney.pl).
- Rates kept unchanged in July (source: parkiet.com).
- High correlation between RPP decisions and debt servicing costs (source: Business Insider Polska).

This stagnation is not the "new normal," but rather a state of waiting for an improvement that, in the current geopolitical situation, is pure abstraction. Borrowers who in 2025 assumed an optimistic scenario of rates falling below 5 percent must now renegotiate their financial plans. There is no room for cheap money in a world where global uncertainty costs more than local GDP growth.

Expert forecasts: what awaits us by the end of the year?

Forecasts prepared by Direct Money for 2026 were burdened with a high degree of caution from the very beginning. Experts from this institution have long warned that the interest rate path would not be linear. Their analyses, published back in April 2026, suggested that any attempt at a sharp cut would be immediately countered by financial markets. Today, these warnings are becoming reality. Forbes analysts, analyzing the situation after the cuts of November 2025, consistently point to the need for great caution against easing too early.

Market participants are carefully looking for further communiqués from the NBP. They are looking for clear signals regarding the future path of inflation and GDP dynamics, which are currently the only reference points for the Council's further decisions. Will GDP dynamics allow for any movement? Data points to a slowdown, but not a recession, which gives the Council the comfort of keeping rates at a high level without the risk of stifling the economy. This is a comfortable, albeit painful for borrowers, position.

For the average loan holder, this means one thing: installments will not start falling at the pace counted on just a few months ago. The unstable external situation forces policymakers to adopt a defensive stance. The zloty, under pressure from international events, additionally ties the hands of the Council, which cannot afford to excessively weaken the national currency through premature cuts. We remain in limbo, where the main factor determining monetary decisions has ceased to be solely domestic data and has become global uncertainty.

The financial market is currently pricing in rate stabilization until the end of the year. If nothing happens that could calm the mood in the Middle East, the RPP will have no arguments to change course. Any suggestion of a cut would be perceived in current conditions as a signal of irresponsibility. Economists are becoming increasingly skeptical of any forecasts assuming quick returns to the rates of years past.

Board with stock quotes and currency exchange rates.

Institutional positions vs. economic realities

The gap between optimistic forecasts and hard macroeconomic data has become a symbol of 2026. The service InnPoland directly links the Council's passivity to the pressure on the zloty caused by tensions between the USA and Iran. The national currency remains under fire, which effectively ties the central bank's hands. In this atmosphere, any attempt to cut rates could be read as a signal of weakness, further weakening the zloty exchange rate and driving up imported inflation. The market, although sensitive to signals, must now approach any announcements of changes with great reserve.

Experts from wGospodarce appeal for extraordinary vigilance. Monitoring every communiqué from the NBP has become more important than following the interest rate decisions themselves. It is in the justifications, not in the tables themselves, that the Council's true strategy is hidden. At the same time, Bankier.pl in its analyses recalls the autumn of 2025, when rate cuts were supposed to be the beginning of a downward trend. Today, those moves look like an isolated episode, not a lasting turn in monetary policy.

The current situation is a classic trap. On one hand, we have an economy needing stimulation; on the other, an unpredictable international environment. A return to the parameters of two years ago remains in the realm of wishes, not realistic macroeconomic scenarios. The RPP has clearly chosen stabilization over risk, which for borrowers' wallets means a long period of being in limbo.

In this puzzle, the interests of borrowers lose out to the necessity of maintaining a rigid monetary policy course. The Council does not want to risk destabilizing the currency at a time when global markets react nervously to every signal of escalating armed conflicts. In practice, this means that the Polish borrower has become a hostage to geopolitics.

Summary: will rates return to the 5.75 percent level?

The July 2026 RPP decision definitively ends the stage of illusions. A return to the 5.75 percent level, which was a period of relatively high stabilization in November 2024, is an almost unrealistic scenario in the near future today. The financial market in 2026 operates in a completely different reality. Current conditions are characterized by much greater external volatility, which makes any attempts to return to earlier debt parameters pure speculation.

For the average mortgage holder, this means no relief in the household budget. The stabilization we were counting on turned out to be a trap. Instead of the expected cuts, we must prepare for a continuation of the period of high debt servicing costs. The Council does not want to risk destabilizing the currency at a time when global markets react nervously to every signal of escalating armed conflicts. In this puzzle, the interests of borrowers lose out to the necessity of maintaining a rigid monetary policy course.

The path back to cheap money has been blocked by factors over which the Polish central bank has no control. We can expect that the coming months will be spent waiting for signals from global fuel markets. Until these begin to stabilize, the RPP will not make any move toward easing. This is a difficult time for all loan holders, but also a time when one should revise their expectations toward the central bank.

Remember that interest rates are not just the cost of a loan; they are primarily an instrument for protecting the value of money. If the RPP decides that the inflation risk is higher than the social cost of high installments, it will always choose the former. These are the rules of the game, which no requests or hopes of borrowers will change. A return to 5.75 percent would require a miracle in the form of extinguishing conflicts in the Middle East, which seems unlikely in the current situation.

What this means for you

For borrowers, the RPP decision means no relief in monthly obligations, while savers can count on the maintenance of current deposit interest rates. The catch remains inflation, which in the face of geopolitical tensions may force the RPP to keep rates at a higher level for longer than assumed in optimistic scenarios. If your household finances are based on a loan, you must assume that these costs will not fall this year. This is a time to tighten your belt and look for safe havens for your savings, because uncertainty in the markets will be with us for a long time.

Questions and answers

Why didn't the RPP cut rates in July 2026?

The main reason is the pressure on the zloty caused by geopolitical tensions between the USA and Iran, which forces the RPP to maintain a restrictive monetary policy course.

Will my loan installments increase after the July decision?

The decision to keep rates unchanged means that the interest on loans based on the WIBOR rate remains unchanged, so installments should not increase drastically, but they will not fall either.

When are the next RPP moves expected?

The market analyzes NBP communiqués after every meeting; currently, forecasts indicate a strict dependence of future decisions on the stabilization of the international situation and the zloty exchange rate against major currencies.

What data is key for future RPP decisions?

The most important indicators remain the inflation path, GDP dynamics, and the level of wage pressure, which, combined with external commodity blackmail, create the picture of the situation that the Council must face every month.

Is a return to 5.75 percent still possible this year?

Most analysts consider this scenario unlikely, pointing out that geopolitical conditions require the NBP to exercise great caution and avoid sharp moves toward easing.

What should a borrower do in the face of this stabilization?

Borrowers should prepare for a long-term period of higher debt servicing costs and avoid taking on new, risky financial obligations until the situation in the markets improves permanently.

Does the RPP decision affect deposit interest rates?

Yes, keeping rates unchanged means that the interest on bank deposits and savings accounts will also remain at similar levels, which for savers is a form of capital protection against the decline in the real value of money.

What does the NBP react to most in current communiqués?

The NBP reacts most strongly to exchange rate risks and imported inflation, which means that every turmoil in commodity markets is treated by the Council as a signal to maintain a restrictive stance.

Does the situation in the Middle East actually determine decisions in Warsaw?

Yes, because the Polish economy is highly dependent on energy prices, and every increase in oil or gas prices caused by armed conflicts affects production and transport costs, which translates into inflationary pressure in the country.

Are there any premises for a quick rate cut in 2026?

Currently, there are no strong arguments for such a move, unless there were a sudden extinguishing of geopolitical tensions, which would allow the zloty to strengthen and calm commodity markets.

Is the RPP afraid of a weakening zloty?

Yes, a weakening zloty in the current situation would mean an increase in import costs, and thus higher inflation, which for the central bank, whose main goal is price stability, is an unacceptable scenario.

Was the autumn of 2025 the actual end of the downward trend?

There are many indications that the cuts from the autumn of 2025 were only a short breath, not a lasting turn in monetary policy, which was confirmed by the decisions made in the first half of 2026.

What does the Council's "defensive stance" mean for the market?

It means that the Council prefers to "wait out" the difficult period in conditions of high rates rather than risk destabilizing the economy through easing too early, which could trigger uncontrolled reactions in currency markets.

Is the rise in energy prices the main threat to consumers?

The rise in energy prices is one of the most important factors affecting household budgets, and the RPP, by keeping rates high, indirectly tries to limit demand to ease pressure on the prices of goods and services.

What is the role of the exchange rate in RPP decisions?

The exchange rate is currently the "safety fuse" of the Polish economy; keeping rates at a high level supports the zloty, which helps in the fight against imported inflation and protects against uncontrolled capital outflow.

Are economists' forecasts changing dynamically?

Economists' forecasts are currently in a phase of continuous upward revision, which results from the fact that external factors (geopolitics) are winning over internal hopes for an economic upturn.

Why is it so difficult to get cheap loans in 2026?

Cheap loans require low inflation and a stable macroeconomic environment, and both these conditions are not met in 2026 due to external supply shocks and tensions in commodity markets.

Does the RPP take the situation of developers into account?

The RPP focuses primarily on price and currency stability, and the situation of individual sectors, such as construction or real estate, is secondary to the Council's macroeconomic goals.

Should borrowers look for help with refinancing after the July decision?

Every borrower should analyze their situation individually, however, in the face of rate stabilization at a high level, the possibilities of obtaining significantly better loan conditions in the short term are limited.

Does this mean that inflation is still the main enemy?

Inflation remains the most important challenge for monetary policy, and high rates are the main tool intended to prevent its renewed rise in conditions of global instability.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.