No, you will not feel relief in 2026, because the market and institutional reality have cemented the cost of capital at the level seen nearly two years ago. The MPC's decision in November 2024 to keep rates at 5.75 percent froze high loan costs, and their real decline in 2026 depends on lasting changes in the CPI index. Today, it is clear that banking mathematics leaves no room for optimism as long as wage pressure and energy prices do not fall to a level acceptable to the Monetary Policy Council.
Why the MPC chose stabilization
November 2024 became a caesura that defined financial conditions for the coming quarters. By keeping the reference rate at 5.75 percent, the Monetary Policy Council sent a signal to the market that fighting inflation was the priority, even at the cost of slowing economic momentum. The NBP's mandate remains rigid: bringing price dynamics down to the 2.5 percent target with a permissible deviation of one percentage point. At that moment, the Council members decided that any easing of policy would be premature.
Minutes from meetings during that period reveal a decision-making mechanism based on deep distrust of the data. The risk of an energy price rebound, resulting from the phasing out of price shields and fluctuations in global commodity markets, became the main argument for the "hawks" on the Council. Governor Adam Glapiński repeatedly emphasized that the central bank cannot afford a mistake that would result in a secondary wave of price increases. Stabilizing rates at 5.75 percent was intended to act as a safety anchor.
For borrowers, this "safety fuse" proved to be an economic blockade. Keeping rates unchanged eliminated the possibility of a decline in the WIBOR rate, which in the Polish banking system forms the foundation for the interest rates on most variable-rate mortgage loans. As a result, instead of the expected relief, household budgets were subjected to prolonged pressure. There was no policy reorientation that would reward those in debt.
Forecasts for 2026, based on macroeconomic data from the NBP, point to the persistence of inflation. There is no confirmed information about a planned schedule for cuts. The market, instead of waiting for declines, had to adjust to the reality of the high cost of money. The MPC's strategy proved effective in curbing price dynamics, but the price was the consolidation of high debt servicing costs at 5.75 percent. This is not a transitional state, but the new norm.
The cost of debt: the brutal mathematics of household budgets
Keeping the reference rate at 5.75 percent for such a long time means that the average borrower has no access to cheaper financing. The WIBOR rate, being a resultant of MPC decisions and market expectations, remains at levels that continue to significantly burden household budgets in 2026. The installment for a 300,000 PLN mortgage remains about 40-50 percent higher compared to the period before the rate hike cycle, which is a direct result of the lack of downward movement after November 2024.
Commercial banks show no initiative in offering more favorable terms, as persistently high interest rates provide them with a stable source of interest income. Borrowers tied to variable-rate contracts did not see any downward adjustment in their monthly obligations in the first half of 2026. Poles' wallets remain in a state of permanent tension, and the margin for savings has shrunk drastically.
Nominal installment values remain high, and core inflation effectively offsets any potential increases in disposable income. Families who counted on debt costs starting to fall two years after the MPC decision found themselves in a trap. The lack of changes in monetary policy means that money remains expensive. For the average bank client, this means consuming a few percent less per month, which translates into a real slowdown in domestic demand on a national scale.
Official statements from the final months of 2026 do not confirm a scenario in which interest rates would fall below 5.75 percent in the near future. This means that every month of delay in MPC decisions is a loss of real purchasing power for the borrower. The central bank remains unyielding, and the financial services market does not currently offer instruments that could significantly reduce this burden. This situation calls into question any forecasts of "cheap credit" this year.
Inflation and price stickiness: why the MPC is not letting up
The mechanism of inflation "stickiness" has become a key concept in NBP analyses. Governor Adam Glapiński has consistently pointed out in his speeches that inflation in Poland is structural. This means that even with a drop in the prices of some raw materials, the costs of services and energy remain at a high level. Keeping rates at 5.75 percent was a direct response to this phenomenon, intended to prevent price pressure from spilling over into other sectors of the economy.
Forecasts from late 2024 assumed that returning to the inflation target would be a slow process. The reality of 2026 confirms this thesis. The labor market, despite high rates, remained extraordinarily resilient, and wage pressure did not fade. Wage increases, while theoretically beneficial for employees, are fuel for inflation from the central bank's point of view. The MPC had to weigh the risks: on one hand, the desire to relieve borrowers, and on the other, the necessity of suppressing inflation expectations.
The decision in November 2024 was an expression of deep skepticism regarding the durability of the inflation decline. Council members clearly indicated in their minutes that as long as wage dynamics exceed productivity growth and service prices show an upward trend, there is no room for cuts. This stance dominated monetary policy for many months. Borrowers thus became hostages to the fight against price "stickiness."
If the CPI index does not show a clear, lasting downward trend in subsequent 2026 readings, arguments about the threat of secondary inflation will continue to paralyze the easing process. The lack of data confirming the expiration of wage pressure means that the rhetoric of "caution" will remain the NBP's main weapon. For those paying off loans, this is a signal that 5.75 percent is not a random number, but the result of a conscious choice between price stability and the comfort of debtors.
Industry and investment: the cost stagnation trap
Entrepreneurs in 2026 face the hard reality of external financing. For many companies, the MPC's decision to keep rates at 5.75 percent meant freezing development plans. The cost of an investment loan, being the sum of the WIBOR rate and the bank margin, remains in the double digits, which in practice excludes many small and medium-sized enterprises from the market. Long-term planning has become almost impossible in this environment.
The slowdown in private investment in 2025 and 2026 is a direct result of maintaining a high cost of capital. Analysts note that companies, instead of modernizing machinery or investing in digitalization, are focusing on servicing current debt. The financing barrier has become one of the main obstacles to the development of Polish industry. In business surveys, entrepreneurs explicitly point to the lack of cheap credit as a factor hindering their expansion into foreign markets.
The lack of a breakthrough in monetary policy means that the margins of many manufacturing companies have dropped drastically. Debt financing costs eat up profits that could otherwise be used for employee raises or innovation. Entrepreneurs who counted on a quick pivot by the MPC away from restrictive policy had to revise their strategies. Today, instead of optimism, one sees waiting and caution.
Capital remains expensive, and the patience of management boards is running out with each passing month of no cuts. The lack of official announcements regarding monetary policy easing for the second half of 2026 suggests that the current impasse will last longer. Companies that do not have their own cash reserves are doomed to expensive financing, which in the long run may lead to market consolidation and the elimination of weaker entities. For the manufacturing sector, this year will not bring a radical improvement.
Labor market: a successful soft landing strategy or a threat?
The labor market in Poland went through a period of high interest rates without the crash that many economists predicted. The unemployment rate in 2024 and 2025 remained at record lows, which in the eyes of the MPC became proof of the effectiveness of the adopted strategy. Keeping rates at 5.75 percent did not lead to mass layoffs, which allows policymakers to claim that the economy has gone through a "soft landing" process.
However, in August 2026, the situation is starting to look quite different. The strategy that allowed for avoiding a recession is slowly losing its stabilizing potential. Employers, burdened by debt costs, are increasingly less likely to decide on new hires, and wage pressure, while still present, is starting to slow down under the influence of market uncertainty. Success in the form of low unemployment is ceasing to be an argument for maintaining high rates and is starting to become a ballast.
For the employee, the key process was wage dynamics exceeding inflation. It was this mechanism that acted as a safety fuse, allowing for the maintenance of consumption despite high debt servicing costs. However, the margin of safety for businesses is becoming increasingly narrow. If the CPI index does not show a lasting downward trend, continuing to hold restrictive rates may eventually force employers to make reductions that they previously managed to avoid.
Current labor market data do not yet confirm a collapse, but they point to a growing impasse. Relief in the wallets of borrowers remains a promise, because the economy is in a state of permanent equilibrium that does not allow for bold downward moves. Without a clear impulse for inflation to fall, the situation in the labor market may deteriorate in the fourth quarter of 2026, when companies will be forced to further optimize operating costs.
Forecasts for the second half of 2026
August 2026 is a time when hopes for a change in monetary policy have been almost completely extinguished. The Monetary Policy Council's decision from November 2024, keeping rates at 5.75 percent, remains the reference point from which no one wants to move. Market analysts, who speculated for many months about an approaching cycle of cuts, are currently tempering their moods. The real scenario of a drop in loan installments depends on changes in the CPI index, and these remain largely unpredictable.
The problem with energy and commodity prices is paralyzing decisions on easing. As long as these categories of goods show volatility, the MPC will not dare to lower rates. For the average mortgage holder, this means remaining in limbo. No specific schedule of changes for the coming months has been confirmed. The credit market is at an impasse, and banks have no interest in offering better terms as long as central decisions remain conservative.
Hopes for relief in 2026 proved too optimistic. Inflation, although theoretically under control, proved sticky, especially in the services sector. Anyone who counted on a cheap loan before the end of the year must revise their expectations. Today, financial institutions are not sending any signals indicating an approaching improvement in financing conditions. The status quo will be maintained as long as the MPC sees a risk of prematurely awakening inflation expectations.
This is not the time for cuts; it is a time for further observation. Anyone who planned to restructure their debt based on forecasts of falling rates should prepare for a conservative variant. The Polish economy in the second half of 2026 will continue to function under conditions of a high cost of money, which means no relief for those in debt and the necessity of further belt-tightening in household budgets.
What this means for you
The MPC's decision from November 2024 became an anchor for the Polish economy, which on one hand stabilized inflation, but on the other consolidated high living costs for millions of borrowers. Savers with deposits gained, as they could count on predictable profits, but those who finance their homes with debt lost. The catch is wage pressure, which despite high rates continues to drive consumer demand, preventing the Council from lowering the cost of money. For you, this means a continuation of high monthly debt servicing expenses at least until the end of the current year.
Q&A
Why didn't the MPC lower rates in November 2024?
The Monetary Policy Council feared inflation risk, resulting mainly from uncertainty regarding energy prices and persistent wage pressure in the economy, which could lead to a secondary rise in prices if policy were eased too early.
How did the 5.75 percent decision affect my loan installments?
Keeping rates at 5.75 percent means that the interest rates on most variable-rate mortgage loans did not fall, which forced many Poles to maintain higher monthly debt servicing expenses for the entire period since November 2024.
Can we count on a return to low rates in 2026?
Forecasts for 2026 indicate that a return to interest rate levels from the period before the hikes is unlikely in the short term due to persistent inflation stickiness and the lack of lasting changes in the CPI index that would justify a change in the MPC's course.
Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts are derived from the sources provided above.
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