Interest rates in August 2026: will loans become cheaper?

The Monetary Policy Council kept interest rates at 5.75 percent in July 2026. This decision means there will be no decrease in installments for borrowers in August due to the uncertain geopolitical situation between the USA and Iran. The National Bank of Poland, guided by caution, has frozen the cost of money, dashing the hopes of millions of Poles for a noticeable relief in their household budgets this summer.

RPP keeps rates unchanged: What does this mean for your installment?

The meeting of the Monetary Policy Council in July 2026 ended with a verdict that is unambiguous for the credit market. The reference rate remains at the level of 5.75 percent. If anyone expected that the holidays would bring a reduction in debt servicing costs, they must face the hard reality. Repayment schedules remain unchanged. Banks have not received any signal to revise margins or lower the WIBOR index.

This decision is not a coincidence, but the result of a cold risk calculation. The members of the Council, analyzing current macroeconomic indicators, concluded that external pressure is currently too high to risk loosening monetary policy. Any rate cut in such unstable conditions could be perceived by financial markets as a sign of weakness of the Polish currency. The zloty, which is under constant speculative fire, requires protection, and higher interest rates are the most effective shield in this case.

For a mortgage holder, this means a continuation of the scenario in which installments remain at a high, noticeable level. There is no talk of a "holiday reduction." There will be no more money in the wallets of borrowers because the monetary policy transmission mechanism has been deliberately slowed down. The RPP prioritizes currency stability over immediate aid to indebted households. This is a technocratic approach that, in the face of global conflicts, becomes the only safe path.

It should be noted that the July decision is the final verdict for August installments. Commercial banks, based on the NBP's decision, are maintaining variable interest rates at their current level. There will be no adjustments in the middle of the holidays. Borrowers must come to terms with the fact that their obligations will remain in the same place they were in June. The lack of changes is the only certain information coming from Świętokrzyska Street in this situation.

Building of the National Bank of Poland in Warsaw.

Geopolitics vs. monetary policy: The impact of the USA-Iran conflict

The conflict between Washington and Tehran has ceased to be merely a matter for distant news services. It has become a direct element of Polish monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Council has left no illusions: the escalation of tensions in the Middle East makes any downward moves regarding the cost of money impossible. The oil market has reacted to these events with sharp price spikes, which means a real inflationary threat for the Polish economy.

The Polish economy is open, which makes it sensitive to supply shocks. The rise in fuel prices, a consequence of the unrest in the USA-Iran region, hits supply chains and transport costs. RPP members understand perfectly well that lowering interest rates at a time when energy prices could rise sharply would be a mistake. Inflation, which has been so painstakingly extinguished over the last few years, could flare up again.

Foreign investors are watching the situation with great concern. Capital, looking for safe havens, is flowing out of emerging markets, which further weakens the zloty. If the NBP decided to cut rates, the difference in bond yields between Poland and the world's major economies would widen even further. This is a direct path to capital flight and further depreciation of the zloty. The Monetary Policy Council cannot afford this.

The August decision to maintain rates at 5.75 percent is confirmation that policymakers are prioritizing defense over development. Every incident in the Middle East is analyzed by NBP analysts not only from a political perspective but, above all, an economic one. As long as the situation in the USA-Iran region does not clearly stabilize, dreams of cheaper loans will remain in the realm of theory. The Polish economy, being a small link in the global chain, is paying the price for global chaos.

The zloty under pressure: Why is the NBP cautious?

The situation of the zloty is tense. Investors do not like uncertainty, and the escalation in the Middle East generates more than enough of it. The National Bank of Poland, taking care of the value of the national currency, must maintain rates at 5.75 percent to protect the zloty against speculative attacks. A higher cost of money makes investing in Polish assets remain relatively profitable, which prevents capital from fleeing en masse.

This mechanism is simple but extremely painful for borrowers. Higher interest rates mean a higher WIBOR, and consequently, a higher installment. The RPP faces a dilemma that is impossible to solve without losses for one of the parties. By choosing currency stability, the Council effectively burdens mortgage holders with the costs of this choice. There is no room for sentiment here. A technocratic approach excludes a nod to households if protecting the purchasing power of money against imported inflation is at stake.

Why, however, is caution so high right now? The 5.75 percent level is the foundation on which the country's current financial stability rests. Any downward change would be a signal for an attack on the zloty. In war or quasi-war conditions, such as those we are observing in US-Iran relations, no one will risk destabilizing the currency market. The Monetary Policy Council is therefore choosing "wait and see." It is a passive strategy, but in current realities, it is the only one available.

Analysts from institutions such as Parkiet or INNPoland.pl emphasize that for the members of the Council, the dollar exchange rate is more important than the borrower's installment. If the dollar strengthens against the zloty, the costs of importing raw materials rise. This, in turn, leads to price increases in stores. The RPP fears a price-wage spiral that could be triggered if rates fell too early. Borrowers, like it or not, are becoming hostages to this fight for the purchasing power of Polish money.

Forecasts for borrowers for the second half of 2026

Hopes for quick relief in monthly loan obligations must be shelved. The July decision of the Monetary Policy Council to maintain rates at 5.75 percent has determined what the second half of 2026 will look like. The financial market has stopped pricing in aggressive cuts in August or September. Instead, analysts are focusing on monitoring geopolitical risk.

Forecasts that seemed optimistic at the beginning of the year now look much less realistic. It is worth comparing the current stagnation with earlier warnings. As early as April 2026, economists from Direct Money pointed to the need to exercise extreme caution in loosening monetary policy. As it turns out, their diagnosis was extremely precise. The market is constantly analyzing every RPP meeting through the prism of oil prices. These dictate the pace at which Polish policymakers will be able to consider any changes at all.

Analysis of the financial sector indicates that the process of exiting from expensive money will be long and bumpy. The optimism from the end of 2025, when the market believed in a quick return to lower debt servicing costs, has been brutally verified by events on the international stage. Let us recall that November 2025 brought rate cuts that gave hope for the continuation of the cycle. That optimism faded with the escalation of the USA-Iran conflict.

For loan holders, this means preparing for "expensive living" for the next few months. There are no indications that the RPP will suddenly change course in August or September. The Council is a hostage to global events. If anyone was counting on a holiday relief, they must verify their financial plans. The chances of a change in monetary policy before the end of the year are currently assessed as marginal, unless something happens that radically calms the mood in the Middle East.

Economists analyzing inflation and interest rate charts.

When will relief come? The end-of-year perspective

The prospect of a credit thaw remains hazy. The July RPP decision to maintain rates at 5.75 percent is a signal that policymakers do not intend to take risks. Every borrower is asking themselves when installments will finally start to fall. The answer is not optimistic: the market suggests that this will not happen before the end of 2026.

The Forbes forecast from November 2025, in which economists indicated that we would reach the optimal interest rate level no sooner than the end of 2026, is taking on new meaning today. At the time, it seemed like a pessimistic assumption. Today, in the face of geopolitical destabilization, it sounds like the most realistic scenario. Although the autumn of 2025 brought cuts, the current situation makes the path back to lower debt servicing costs extremely difficult to traverse.

Financial analysts are extremely cautious in their assessments. The market prices risk in terms of maintaining the status quo rather than aggressive cuts. Borrowers who were counting on a quick breather in household budgets before the end of the year must verify their expectations. The zloty, under the pressure of events in the Middle East, does not give the Council the room for maneuver that many expected.

We are at an impasse. The fight against inflation and currency stability are winning over immediate relief for indebted households. By the end of the year, economic fundamentals may change, but for now, the optimistic scenario remains only in the realm of forecasts, not hard RPP decisions. Every fluctuation in the dollar exchange rate becomes a more important argument for Council members than data from the domestic labor market. The stakes are high, and interest rates remain a hostage to global security.

Summary of the situation on the financial market

July 2026 did not bring a breakthrough. The Monetary Policy Council did not decide to loosen monetary policy during its last meeting. Interest rates remain at 5.75 percent, which means that August will be another month with high debt servicing costs. This decision definitively cuts off speculation about a quick drop in installments in the coming weeks.

The main brake for the Council members remains the unstable geopolitical situation. The tension between the USA and Iran is a real risk factor that affects the valuation of the zloty and the level of inflation. The RPP has adopted a "wait and see" strategy. In practice, this means that as long as the situation in the Middle East does not calm down, the Council prefers not to risk moves that could weaken the Polish currency or unsettle inflation expectations.

Borrowers must prepare for the fact that high installments will stay with them for longer. Analysts point out that while a cycle of cuts seems inevitable in the long term, the current external environment has effectively frozen the plans of policymakers. Instead of counting on a quick breakthrough, it is better to carefully observe reports from commodity markets and dispatches from Washington and Tehran. That is where the fate of future RPP decisions is being weighed.

Below we present the key data that define the current economic reality:

Current reference rate: 5.75 percent (data according to wGospodarce from July 8, 2026)
RPP strategy for July 2026: "wait and see" (Parkiet analysis, July 8, 2026)
Geopolitical pressure: USA and Iran increase risk for the zloty (INNPoland.pl report, July 8, 2026)

What this means for you

For the average borrower, this means that installments will remain at their current high level at least until the autumn. Those saving on deposits gain, while holders of variable-rate mortgage loans lose. The main catch remains the unpredictable geopolitical situation, which prevents the RPP from loosening monetary policy more quickly.

Questions and answers

Will loan installments fall in August 2026?

No, due to the RPP maintaining rates at 5.75 percent, the amount of installments remains unchanged.

Why is the RPP not lowering interest rates?

The main reason is the pressure on the zloty caused by tensions between the USA and Iran and uncertainty regarding energy prices.

When can we expect cheaper loans?

Experts point to the end of 2026 as a possible moment to reach an optimal, lower level of interest rates.

The market in the shadow of politics

The situation we are facing in mid-2026 is extremely difficult for household financial planning. Borrowers in Poland have become accustomed to volatility, but the current impasse is different. It does not stem from internal economic weakness, but from global tensions over which the NBP has limited influence. A zloty under pressure is not just a headline in newspapers. It is a real mechanism that maintains high loan costs.

It is worth looking at this more broadly. When the RPP keeps rates at 5.75 percent, it protects citizens' savings from inflation, but at the same time limits the growth dynamics of the real estate sector. Demand for mortgage loans is dying out, and the development market is slowing down. This is the price we pay for currency stability. Is it too high? This is a question that every borrower must answer for themselves, looking at the amount of their monthly installment.

The lack of changes in August is a signal that the Council does not intend to succumb to political or social pressure. Policymakers are sticking strictly to their mandates: fighting inflation and currency stability. For households, this means a period of sacrifice. The "wait and see" strategy is frustrating for them because it means remaining in uncertainty. No one knows when the situation in the Middle East will calm down, so no one knows when interest rates will start to fall.

Finally, it is worth emphasizing the role of historical data. November 2025 brought a rate cut, which at the time seemed to be the beginning of a long road down. Today we know that it was only a short breath. Geopolitics brutally interrupted this process. Borrowers must show great patience and flexibility in managing their budgets today. There is no indication that the situation will change in the coming weeks. September and October will be further months in which decisions from Tehran and Washington will be key, not just those from the RPP meeting room.

Economist's perspective

Economists, such as those from Forbes, warned as early as November 2025 that the road to optimal interest rates would not be easy. Their forecasts, although they seemed too pessimistic at the time, are now treated as a reference point. The situation in July 2026 shows that the financial market is extremely susceptible to external shocks. Poland, as a medium-sized economy, does not have enough leverage to become independent of global trends.

Borrowers who were counting on a quick return to the days of low rates must verify their financial models. The high cost of money is becoming the new normal, at least for 2026. Changing this state of affairs would require a lasting calming of the international situation, which is unlikely under current conditions.

Therefore, anyone who has a variable-rate loan should focus on building a financial cushion. You cannot count on the RPP to "help" by cutting rates in the coming months. This is a time for careful household budget management. Stability, although costly for the borrower, is the foundation on which the security of the entire economy rests. Without a strong zloty and low inflation, the cost of living would be even higher. The Monetary Policy Council is therefore choosing the lesser of two evils. It is cynical, but necessary in a world where geopolitics dictates the rules of the economic game.

In summary, August 2026 will be a continuation of what we have been observing for several months. The lack of interest rate changes is a message to the market: "do not count on quick relief." Every borrower should prepare for a long-term struggle with high debt servicing costs. This is not a time for optimism; it is a time for cold calculation and preparation for difficult months. The RPP remains unyielding, and global chaos gives it no room to maneuver. The fate of borrowers remains in the hands of diplomats and military strategists, not just economists.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources listed above.