What are the interest rates in August 2026? MPC decisions under scrutiny

In August 2026, the Monetary Policy Council is maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent, continuing a restrictive monetary policy path. Experts point out that reaching the target, optimal level for the cost of money will only occur in the final months of the year. This decision is a clear signal that the priority remains the fight against inflationary pressure generated by external factors, which still dominate domestic economic growth indicators.

The situation at the MPC: July and August 2026

During its meeting on July 8, 2026, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged. From a market perspective, this move was expected; however, the way Council members communicate suggests that every subsequent decision carries a high risk of error. In their public statements, MPC members emphasize that macroeconomic data flowing from the Polish economy do not provide a sufficient margin of safety to begin an aggressive easing cycle.

Maintaining the reference rate at 5.75 percent means that the cost of debt servicing for the corporate sector and households remains at a level similar to that of recent months. It is worth noting that the market expected a different scenario as early as spring, when a faster decline in core inflation was predicted. However, current data published by financial institutions indicate persistent price stickiness, which forces policymakers to abandon plans for a rapid reduction in the cost of money.

Analyzing the minutes from the July meeting, a clear dominance of the defensive trend is visible. In its communications, the Monetary Policy Council points to two main threats: pressure on the commodities market and uncertainty regarding future energy prices. From the central bank's perspective, any upward impulse in imported fuel prices is an immediate signal to halt cuts. Thus, the July decision defines the image of the entire second half of the summer, in which, instead of stimulating actions, we are observing a wait-and-see policy.

For investors and borrowers, the lack of a rate change is a clear message: the space for debate about cheap credit has been suspended. Council members, analyzing data from July 8, stated that the economy needs time to digest previous changes, and any acceleration of the cycle could have the opposite effect to that intended. In this context, market expectations have been reduced to waiting for subsequent quarters, with attention focused on inflation data published by Statistics Poland (GUS) and analyses from research institutes.

Why is the Middle East dictating conditions in Poland?

In its communications from July 18, 2026, the Polish Economic Institute points to a direct correlation between the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and decisions made in Warsaw. For the average reader, this may sound like an abstraction, but in economic practice, it is a key piece of the puzzle. Crude oil and natural gas prices constitute the foundations of production costs, and consequently, the final prices of goods in stores.

Every increase in tension in the region of Iran and the Persian Gulf triggers an immediate reaction on commodity exchanges. An increase in the valuation of a barrel of oil translates into higher logistics and energy production costs, which, in the conditions of an open economy like Poland's, constitutes the main source of imported inflation. The MPC, operating with monetary tools, has no direct influence on the price of oil, but it can limit domestic demand by maintaining high interest rates.

In this mechanism, maintaining 5.75 percent is an attempt to balance external supply shocks. If raw materials become more expensive, the MPC must ensure that money in circulation does not lose value at a rate exceeding the assumed inflation targets. From the perspective of analysts, it is precisely this dependency that has become the main brake on cuts. Even if the domestic economic situation indicated a need to loosen policy, the geopolitical situation is an argument that prevails in the Council's votes.

The impact of these events is felt in every wallet. When energy costs rise, pressure on wages increases, which generates a second-round inflation effect. The Monetary Policy Council, aware of this process, tries to limit the space for excessive borrowing by companies and consumers through the high cost of credit, which in theory is supposed to cool down the economy and curb price growth. This is a socially costly strategy, but from the central bank's point of view, it is necessary in the face of external instability.

Siedziba Narodowego Banku Polskiego w Warszawie. — Headquarters of the National Bank of Poland in Warsaw.

History of changes: from November 2025 to today

The road to the current level of interest rates was bumpy and full of twists. To understand why August 2026 is a time of waiting, one must go back to November 2025. At that time, after long discussions, the Monetary Policy Council decided to cut rates. It was the second autumn quarter that raised hopes for a quick return to the times of cheap credit.

Back then, in November 2025, the market reacted enthusiastically. Bankier.pl and other financial services pointed to an improvement in sentiment among borrowers. However, analyses from that period, including publications in Forbes, tempered those moods. Even then, economists warned that the November cut did not mean the beginning of an endless downward trend. They pointed out that reaching the optimal level of rates is a process spread over time, requiring constant control over price dynamics.

In retrospect, it is clear that that November move was merely a correction in a broader cycle that collided with new geopolitical realities. The year 2026 brought completely different challenges than those we faced in 2025. The escalation of armed conflicts and volatility in fuel markets largely neutralized the positive effects of that cut. Borrowers who counted on a quick drop in installments had to face the fact that monetary policy does not operate in a vacuum.

Today we see that the decisions from a few quarters ago were based on completely different assumptions regarding global stability. The MPC could not have predicted the pace of escalation in the Middle East, which is why the current strategy, assuming 5.75 percent, is in essence an admission of the need to revise earlier assumptions. What seemed like the beginning of a new era in November 2025 became a lesson in humility for the financial market in August 2026.

It is also worth noting how the language of MPC communications has changed. If in 2025 there was talk of the need to support economic growth, then in mid-2026 the emphasis shifted toward price stabilization and monitoring supply risks. This paradigm shift is the best proof that the macroeconomic environment forced a change in priorities. Every basis point is now the subject of deep analysis, not automatic decisions.

Forecasts for the end of 2026

Forecasts regarding interest rates for the remainder of 2026 point to maintaining the current course, with any changes being dependent on data flowing from the global economy. Experts from the financial market, analyzing the statements of MPC members and data from July, are in agreement on one thing: one should not expect sudden moves in the near future.

The foundation of these predictions is the conviction that the optimal level of rates, which will allow for stable economic growth while simultaneously keeping inflation in check, will be reached in the fourth quarter of 2026. However, this is not a guarantee of cuts, but rather an indication of the equilibrium point toward which the central bank is striving. Everything depends on how the economy reacts to the persistently high cost of capital.

In its analyses from July 18, 2026, the Local Government Portal (Portal Samorządowy) indicates that the key indicator the Council is looking at is the dynamics of energy prices. If the situation in the Middle East does not calm down, the pressure on production costs will continue, which will prevent the MPC from making bolder moves. On the other hand, if inflation slows down in a lasting way, space opens up for a discussion about a slight loosening of policy before the end of the year.

It is worth recalling reports from April 2026, prepared by Direct Money, which even then suggested that 2026 would be a year of stabilization. These forecasts proved accurate in the context of the current 5.75 percent level. Borrowers must prepare for the fact that the coming months will be a time of stabilization, not dynamic changes. This is a period in which households should focus on managing liquidity at the current level of obligations.

For the financial market, the meetings scheduled for September and October will be the most important. That is when we will find out whether the latest inflation data was a one-off fluctuation or a lasting trend. The MPC, in accordance with its tradition, will avoid haste, analyzing every report with the utmost care. It can therefore be assumed that the baseline scenario for the coming months is to keep rates at the current level, with a possible signal of changes only in December.

Impact on Poles' wallets: Borrowers in limbo

The situation of people paying off mortgage loans in August 2026 is an expression of a certain limbo. Maintaining rates at 5.75 percent means that installments remain at a level that is a challenge for many families. The lack of promised cuts, which were counted on in previous months, translates into the need to continue tightening belts.

The impact of the MPC's decision on Poles' wallets is direct but spread over time. Every variable-rate loan installment is updated based on the reference rate, which means that decisions made in Warsaw have a real translation into how much money remains in the household budget after paying obligations. In its analyses from July 8, 2026, the wGospodarce service pointed out that for many families, the key is not just the interest rate itself, but also the forecast for the coming years, which currently does not give a clear signal of relief.

In turn, TotalMoney.pl, in a publication from July 13, 2026, emphasized that the financial market in Poland is very sensitive to any information flowing from the central bank. Borrowers live in uncertainty, observing not only interest rates but also currency exchange rates and commodity prices. What was once the domain of finance experts has today become a topic of conversation at the family table.

Here is a summary of the key factors influencing the situation of borrowers in August 2026:

No change in rates: Maintaining the 5.75 percent level means stabilization of installments at the current level.
Commodity pressure: Crude oil prices indirectly affect inflation in Poland, which forces the MPC to be vigilant.
Market expectations: The market has already priced in the current level of rates, so any disappointments could lead to increased volatility on the stock market.

For people with a loan, the most important advice is to monitor communication with the bank and follow the MPC decisions, which are published after each meeting. Although the situation seems stable, it is worth being prepared for various scenarios, including a longer period of high financing costs. Remember that the household budget must take into account not only the amount of the installment but also the volatility of the cost of living, which is closely linked to inflation.

Summary: What to expect from September?

September 2026 will be another month in which the eyes of investors and borrowers will be directed at the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. After the summer break, policymakers will return to work in an atmosphere that will largely depend on macroeconomic data for August. Is a breakthrough awaiting us? Many indications are that it is not.

The primary challenge for the Council remains bringing inflation to the target while simultaneously avoiding a recession. This is an extremely difficult task, especially in the face of external supply shocks, which the Local Government Portal mentioned in July. However, if the inflation data for August turns out to be lower than forecasts, the September meeting could bring the first, even if symbolic, signals about a possible direction of changes.

For borrowers, September will not bring immediate relief, but it may be a month in which a clearer perspective for the end of the year emerges. It is worth observing the comments of MPC members, as they often contain hints about future decisions. Every word spoken by central bank representatives is now analyzed for readiness to cut rates.

Experts, whose voices were already quoted in the autumn of 2025, including in Forbes, pointed out that the fight against inflation is a long-term process. Today, from the perspective of August 2026, we see that those warnings were fully justified. There is no room for over-optimism, even if the economy shows signs of resilience. September will be another stage in the process of seeking a balance between caring for the purchasing power of money and supporting economic development.

MPC decisions remain a hostage to the geopolitical situation, over which the influence of policymakers is negligible. This is a bitter lesson for Polish monetary policy, which shows that in a globalized world, local decisions are closely correlated with events that happen thousands of kilometers from our borders. Those who counted on easy solutions must arm themselves with patience. The market is waiting for September, knowing that this is only the beginning of the road to full stabilization.

Wykresy pokazujące wahania stóp procentowych na monitorze. — Charts showing interest rate fluctuations on a monitor.

What this means for you

For borrowers, this means the need to continue keeping household budgets in check, as the costs of debt servicing will not fall in the near future. From the perspective of savers, the current level of 5.75 percent is relatively favorable, offering decent interest on deposits and savings accounts, which allows for at least partially protecting capital against inflation. Those who counted on a quick cash injection thanks to lower loan installments lose out, which forces a re-verification of investment and purchasing plans for the rest of the year.

Questions and answers

Did interest rates change in August 2026?

No, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates at 5.75 percent, guided by caution toward the uncertain geopolitical situation.

When can lower loan installments be expected?

Experts indicate that reaching the optimal level of interest rates, which would allow for more noticeable installment reductions, is expected in the last months of 2026.

What most influences today's MPC decisions?

The key factor is the risk of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which directly translates into energy commodity prices and inflationary pressure in Poland.

Why were there no major cuts in the first half of 2026?

The main reason was higher-than-expected core inflation and external supply shocks, which prevented the Council from accelerating the monetary policy easing cycle.

Does the situation in the Middle East have a direct impact on my loan?

Yes, through the impact on world oil and gas prices, which drives up inflation in Poland and forces the MPC to maintain higher interest rates, which in turn translates into the amount of mortgage loan installments.

Which economic data will be key in September?

The most important will be the latest CPI inflation readings and data on industrial production dynamics, which will allow for assessing whether the economy is beginning to cool down at the expected pace.

Do savers gain from the current MPC policy?

Yes, high interest rates translate into higher interest on deposit products in banks, which is beneficial for people who have savings.

Did the forecasts from the end of 2025 prove accurate?

Largely yes – experts warned about the long path to reaching the optimal level of rates, which was confirmed by events in the first eight months of 2026.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.