Polish industry after 15 months: is this the end of the labor crisis?

The recovery is selective and uncertain: while the defense sector is recruiting thanks to the SAFE program, the automotive industry continues to cut jobs amid falling exports, and local markets, such as the Opole region, still record a ratio of 1 job offer for every 19 job seekers. This is not the end of the crisis, but merely a new phase in which state orders replace market-driven export dynamics. The economy is not returning to its state from 15 months ago, but is undergoing a deep, painful restructuring.

The strategic role of the defense industry: will SAFE save the labor market?

The defense sector has become the only stable pillar for the domestic labor market in the first half of 2026. Data published by FOCUS ON Business on February 25, 2026, show that this industry began increasing employment even before the official launch of the SAFE program. Hundreds of new hires in the defense industry serve as a counterpoint to declines in other branches of industry. However, this is not enough to speak of a broad economic recovery.

Analysis of the defense sector suggests that we are dealing with a transfer of public capital that translates into specific vacancies. This mechanism, however, is limited to a narrow group of specialists and engineers. A worker laid off from an automotive production line does not always possess the competencies to transition smoothly into manufacturing military equipment. As a result, even with employment growth in this one segment, the total number of jobs in industry shows a downward trend.

State investments in security are unable to offset the systemic export problems facing the rest of the economy. The labor market is not recovering as a whole. It is simply shifting its center of gravity, leaving behind regions and industries that do not fit into the state's new military industrial strategy. This recovery is selective and remains imperceptible to a significant part of the country.

The defense industry currently acts as a safety buffer. The question is what will happen once the initial wave of orders under the SAFE program is fulfilled. If the economy does not generate demand for civilian products during this time, the labor market could find itself at a turning point again. Current recruitment is a signal of mobilization, not long-term development based on market advantages.

The automotive paradox: why is production growing while jobs are disappearing?

The automotive sector in Poland is in a state of statistical schizophrenia. Reports published on May 18, 2026, by pb.pl and samar.pl point to a phenomenon that undermines existing theories about the correlation between production growth and employment. In 2025, an increase in production volume was recorded alongside a decrease in the number of jobs and lower export value. This is a situation where factories are operating at higher speeds, but doing so with fewer people.

For workers in the automotive sector, this mechanism means a real threat. Growth in production under conditions of falling exports may result from process automation or inventory sell-offs, rather than growing demand for new vehicles. Companies are optimizing costs to survive a difficult period, which in practice means reducing the most expensive component of the balance sheet: people.

This trend clearly contrasts with the optimistic reports coming from the defense industry. There is no talk of recruitment enthusiasm in the automotive sector. Instead of new jobs, we are dealing with restructuring that primarily affects line workers. It seems that factories are not looking for new hands to work, but for ways to maximize margins with limited human resources.

The dissonance between macroeconomic indicators and the situation on the factory floor is striking. Investors reading reports about production volume growth may get the impression of a bull market, but a person employed in this industry hits a wall of falling exports. This is not the end of the crisis. It is merely its new, more selective phase, in which productivity ceases to be synonymous with job security.

Regional slump: 11,000 laid off and an employer's market

Official forecasts of a rebound in Polish industry are clashing with the results of mass layoffs. Since the beginning of 2026, the labor market has been clearly cracking, and the imbalance between sectors is deepening. Money.pl data from February 19, 2026, indicate that more than 11,000 people have already lost their jobs nationwide. This is not a temporary correction, but a systemic problem that primarily affects regions dependent on large industrial plants.

The economy is not breathing evenly. The situation looks alarming when we look at specific regions. Some provinces have fallen into a spiral of unemployment from which there is no easy exit, and candidates are losing any bargaining power. The Opole region has become a symbol of this phenomenon: according to Opolska360 data from February 23, 2026, there are as many as 19 job seekers for every one vacancy there.

For a worker laid off from an automotive parts factory, nationwide GDP growth statistics are an abstraction. If they do not possess the competencies sought in the defense industry, the chances of finding a job in the region's industrial center are close to zero. The market has become a tough employer's market, which dictates terms by picking and choosing from offers made by desperate people.

This is a picture of a two-speed economy, where the success of some industries does not translate into stability for hundreds of thousands of workers. In regions like the Opole region, the labor market has ceased to be a mechanism for exchanging services for wages and has become a system for selecting the cheapest available worker. The recovery that policymakers talk about is, in this context, merely a statistical average that does not describe the reality of the residents.

Earnings vs. security: what does the average wage of 8,900 PLN say?

The average salary has exceeded 8,900 PLN, as reported by the zwielkopolski24.pl portal on June 19, 2026. For labor market analysts, this is a warning signal, not a reason for celebration. The increase in wages in the face of mass layoffs suggests that employers have found themselves in a cost trap. By laying off part of the staff and cutting jobs, companies are artificially inflating the average wage while failing to improve the condition of the entire sector.

The picture of industry is fractured. On one hand, we have the defense sector, which is actively recruiting, as confirmed by the FOCUS ON Business portal as early as February 2026. This is an island of stability that, however, is unable to absorb the thousands of workers pushed out of other industries. On the other hand, there is the automotive industry, where, according to data from May 2026, exports are falling and employment is plummeting.

The 8,900 PLN average thus becomes a facade. It hides the fact that the industrial recovery is selective and simply inaccessible to a large part of the workforce. The market is not flourishing. It is undergoing a painful restructuring, in which the price is paid by those for whom there is no room in the new, more capital-intensive structures.

It is worth asking whether wage growth with falling employment is sustainable. If companies are raising wages only because they have gotten rid of low-skilled workers, this phenomenon does not testify to an increase in the wealth of society, but to a change in the employment structure. This is a process that deepens inequalities and makes the chances of finding work for people with medium qualifications drop drastically.

The shadow beyond the Oder: how does the situation in Germany affect Poland?

Hopes for a quick rebound in Polish industry have clashed with the situation of our western neighbors. The German economy, which for years was the main engine of Polish exports, is slowing down. Data from February 24, 2026, indicate that the labor market in Germany recorded a slight decline in employment and an increase in unemployment in 2025. This hit Polish plants closely linked to German trading partners directly.

The Polish automotive industry, dependent on orders from across the Oder, is on the defensive. Although statistics point to an increase in production, this is a deceptive impression. The automotive industry in 2025 recorded lower exports and a real decline in employment. This trend was confirmed by reports from May 2026, when the industry reported worse sentiment despite the apparent increase in production capacity.

The situation in the defense sector looks completely different. Here, the inflow of capital forces an increase in employment. However, hundreds of new hires are not enough to offset mass layoffs in other branches. The scale of the problem is visible locally, especially in the Opole region, where the ratio of 19 people per one job offer, recorded in February 2026, is becoming a challenge for the region's social policy.

The Polish economy is stuck straddling the line between new orders for the military and waning demand from German corporations. The recovery is selective and inconsistent. While the defense industry is experiencing a boom funded by the budget, the rest of the economy, strongly linked to the economic situation in Germany, continues to fight for survival. More than 11,000 laid-off workers are hard proof that the labor market has not yet emerged from the phase of sharp braking.

Forecast: are we in for a lasting upward trend?

Fifteen months of declines in Polish industry are not ending with a sudden breakthrough, but with a timid correction. The picture of the market is fragmented. The defense sector is recruiting thanks to the SAFE program, while the automotive industry is cutting jobs and recording export declines. This stratification shows that the current rebound is not systemic. It is strictly dependent on streams of public money.

The real test for the sustainability of this trend is not nationwide indicators, but local labor markets. There, optimism hits a wall. In regions such as the Opole region, statistics remain merciless: nineteen applicants for one job offer is a disparity that cannot be leveled by the ad-hoc support of one industry. Industry is not recovering losses at a pace that would guarantee the absorption of all workers laid off in recent quarters.

To consider the crisis over, we would need to see three specific symptoms:
1. Sustained export growth in the automotive sector, which would indicate a return of demand in Germany.
2. A drop in the ratio of job seekers to offers in regions such as the Opole region to below the 1:5 level, which would mean a recovery in local markets.
3. Stabilization of employment in the civilian industry that would not be dependent on one-off government programs.

Currently, none of these premises are met. The recovery we hear about in reports is selective and uncertain. When one defense factory resumes hiring, a quiet restructuring continues in automotive plants. This is not the economic upturn that workers were waiting for. It is a transitional stage in which the state is taking over the role of the main employer, and the private market is still looking for its bottom. Will this model last longer than the end of the year? Data does not indicate this. Dependence on government orders is a fragile foundation for stable economic growth.

What this means for you

The key catch is the structural change: the labor market is ceasing to be uniform. Specialists in the defense sector are gaining, while production workers in the automotive industry are losing. The rebound is not widespread, and a high average wage may mask the difficult situation of people looking for work in regions affected by restructuring. If you are planning a career change, verify whether your target is not dependent solely on budget subsidies, which may expire at the end of the investment cycle.

Questions and answers

Will employment growth in the defense industry offset layoffs in the automotive industry?

Not fully. The defense sector is recruiting hundreds of people, while in the automotive industry alone and with the mass layoffs reported in February 2026, these numbers reach into the thousands. The scale of recruitment in the defense industry is too small to absorb the surplus of workers from the civilian market.

Why is it so hard to find a job in the Opole region?

The market there is extremely saturated. There are as many as 19 candidates for one offer, which, according to data from February 2026, indicates a deep mismatch between labor supply and demand. This region has felt the effects of the industrial slowdown most acutely, losing its traditional support in local manufacturing plants.

Does an average wage above 8,900 PLN mean that people are earning better in industry?

The average salary is rising, but this is not due to widespread prosperity. It is rather the effect of wage pressure in companies that must compete for high-class specialists, while simultaneously removing lower-paid workers from payroll records as part of job cuts.

What indicators should worry us in the coming months?

Key will be data on exports in the automotive industry. If the decline in exports continues despite an increase in production, it means that factories are not finding buyers for their products, which heralds further waves of layoffs. Equally important is the situation in Germany – any deterioration in their labor market translates with a delay into Polish subcontracting plants.

Sources

Article prepared by the Wiadomości PRO editorial team with the support of artificial intelligence. Facts come from the sources provided above.