Will Germany return to the mark? The AfD’s plan for Europe and Poland

AfD leader Alice Weidel has officially announced a push for Germany to exit the Schengen Area and replace the euro with the German mark, which has prompted warnings from the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding serious consequences for Poland's security and economy. These demands form the foundation of the party's new platform, which seeks a radical revision of Berlin's relations with EU institutions. This proposal, put forward amidst growing disputes over the future of the European monetary system, directly strikes at the foundations of cross-border cooperation built since the 1990s.

Alice Weidel's vision: The end of the common currency era

In an interview with ZDF, Alice Weidel unequivocally classified the euro as a "weak currency," suggesting that the common money limits the development potential of the German economy. The AfD argues that restoring the German mark would allow for the recovery of full sovereignty in the area of monetary policy, which in theory is intended to protect German savings from the effects of community-wide inflation. The party aims to carry out a process that, in practice, would mean dismantling the current financial architecture of the eurozone.

For Poland, which is one of Berlin's most important trading partners, such a change implies systemic risk. In 2023, the volume of Polish exports to Germany reached a value of over 90 billion euros, while imports amounted to nearly 80 billion euros. Total trade exchange exceeding 170 billion euros annually relies on exchange rate stability and the absence of customs barriers. The introduction of the German mark would entail the necessity of revaluing enormous trade contracts. A sudden change in the mark-euro exchange rate would hit the profitability of thousands of Polish manufacturing companies that operate on margins calculated in single-digit percentages.

The financial risk does not only concern large corporations. Every Polish entrepreneur exporting components to German automotive plants would have to face currency risk, which they do not currently possess. The volatility of exchange rates in Central Europe following a potential collapse of the eurozone would cause a drastic increase in transaction costs. The economic mechanism is simple: increased currency uncertainty always results in higher prices for the end consumer, as companies must factor currency exchange risk into their operating costs.

Return of border controls: Logistical paralysis

Alice Weidel's declaration regarding Germany's exit from the Schengen Area means the restoration of permanent controls at all border crossings. For the transport sector, in which Poland plays the role of a European leader, this would be a challenge of unprecedented scale. Currently, thousands of trucks cross the Polish-German border every day, delivering goods via a just-in-time system. This is a logistical model in which components reach factories exactly when they are needed, which allows for the avoidance of storage costs.

Restoring border controls would force a change in this model. Even hour-long delays at border crossings accumulate over the course of a week, leading to an increase in fuel costs and the wages of drivers who would be stuck in queues. From the perspective of a Polish carrier, every hour of downtime is a real loss of money resulting from the vehicle's inactivity. In the long term, German factories, unable to rely on the punctuality of Polish deliveries, could seek contractors within the country, which would mean the marginalization of Polish transport companies.

Administrative barriers at borders are not just a matter of time, but also of direct costs. Customs and passport controls require infrastructure that has been largely dismantled over the last two decades. Rebuilding these points involves investments that will ultimately burden the budgets of member states, but in the short term, they will slow down the flow of goods throughout the region. The Polish economy, which is largely part of the German supply chain, would feel this as a sudden braking of export momentum.

Warsaw's reaction: MFA warnings

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, referring to the AfD's demands on August 24 and 25, 2026, pointed to the serious consequences of such a scenario for Poland's security and stability. Polish diplomacy views Weidel's plans as a signal of the decomposition of the European security order. Restricting the freedom of movement within the European Union is seen in Warsaw as a step backward that weakens the political cohesion of the community against external threats.

The MFA's analysis focuses on the fact that economic security is inextricably linked to military and political security. If Germany were to decide on a unilateral closure of borders, other countries could follow the same path, which would lead to a domino effect. As a result, the Schengen Area, which is one of the pillars of European integration, would cease to fulfill its function. For Poland, which is a transit country between the east and west of Europe, the loss of border fluidity means the loss of a strategic geographical advantage.

The government in Warsaw faces a difficult task. On one hand, it must prepare the country for the potential effects of German policy, and on the other, it cannot interfere in the internal electoral processes of a neighbor. Nevertheless, the official position of the MFA indicates the need for an open debate about the consequences of this model. If Berlin truly abandons EU monetary and border policy, Poland will have to verify its economic priorities, seeking alternative markets to become independent of potential shocks in the German economy.

Impact analysis: Risk to the citizen's wallet

Germany's withdrawal from the eurozone and Schengen would directly affect the prices of goods in Polish stores. Imports from Germany include a wide range of products: from electronics and household chemicals to car parts and processed food. If the German mark were to become a currency stronger than the euro, and transport costs across borders were to rise due to controls, import costs for Polish distributors would increase drastically. These costs would be passed on to final buyers.

It is worth noting that the stability of the euro is based on the trust of financial markets. If the largest economy in the eurozone were to announce its intention to leave, there would be a sell-off of euro assets and a flight of capital to safe havens, such as the dollar or the Swiss franc. This would trigger turbulence in currency markets, including the zloty exchange rate. Poland, even though it has its own currency, is strongly linked to the euro exchange rate through foreign trade. A weakening of the euro against global currencies could paradoxically help some exporters, but it would trigger inflationary pressure through rising prices of energy and raw materials purchased in global trade.

Another aspect is the labor market. Freedom of movement allows Polish workers to legally take up employment in Germany. Restoring border controls could limit this mobility, introducing administrative barriers for cross-border workers. A smaller number of Poles working in Germany is not only a social problem but also an economic one: a decline in income from remittances to the country and the risk of staffing shortages in service sectors in German border states.

Mechanisms of economic isolation

The AfD's plan, from a purely economic perspective, resembles an attempt to return to a model of a national economy, which in the conditions of the 21st century is extremely difficult to maintain without a drastic lowering of the standard of living. Germany is embedded in the European supply network to a degree that precludes a simple "cutting off." Every product manufactured in Germany consists of components coming from many Union countries, including Poland. A return to the German mark would mean imposing additional transaction costs on these products.

From the point of view of a Polish entrepreneur, the most important threat is unpredictability. Business can adapt to difficult conditions as long as they are constant and predictable. However, a scenario in which the currency changes in a short time and controls appear at the borders is deadly for strategic planning. Companies forced to suddenly reorient supply chains may withdraw from investments, which will slow down GDP growth.

It should be emphasized that AfD supporters point to the need to protect German industry from outside competition. However, in reality, closing borders and moving away from the euro could have the opposite effect. German companies would lose access to cheap components from Central Europe, which would raise the final prices of their products. As a result, they would become less competitive in global markets, such as China or the United States. This is a mechanism that, in the long term, would weaken German industrial power instead of strengthening it.

Questions and answers

Why does the AfD want Germany to leave the Schengen Area?

The AfD argues that restoring full control at borders is necessary for effective migration management and ensuring state security, which in their view is not possible within the framework of the open Schengen Area.

What will be the direct consequences for Polish transport companies?

Restoring border controls means the necessity of stopping trucks for clearance, which extends delivery times, increases fuel consumption and logistical costs, negatively affecting the profitability of companies operating in the just-in-time model.

Is a return to the German mark technically feasible?

Economists point to the enormous technical difficulties associated with the process of leaving the eurozone. It would require not only the exchange of banknotes and coins but also the recalculation of all deposits, loans, and trade contracts, which could trigger a paralysis of the banking system and a deep recession in Germany.

What risk for Poland results from Alice Weidel's announcements?

The main threat is the destabilization of trade exchange, which exceeds 170 billion euros annually, and currency risk, which could lower the competitiveness of Polish exporters and increase the prices of imported goods.

Does the Polish government have a contingency plan?

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially warns against the consequences of these actions; however, the details of any plans to protect the Polish economy against Germany's unilateral exit from the euro or Schengen have not been publicly disclosed.