Migration balance 2026: How much have we gained from the presence of Ukrainians?

In 2024, refugees generated 2.7 percent of Poland's GDP, and since the beginning of the invasion, Ukrainian citizens have established nearly 90,000 new companies in Poland. This scale of economic activity constitutes a foundation upon which the country's current budgetary situation rests, but at the same time, it presents the state with challenges that cannot be solved by ad-hoc decrees. The Polish economy has stopped treating the influx of refugees as a temporary humanitarian crisis, moving into a phase of long-term symbiosis with the new social group.

Economic impulse: 2.7 percent of GDP and 90,000 new companies

The economic transformation of recent years is a direct result of including a huge group of people in the bloodstream of the Polish market. The entrepreneurship of Ukrainian citizens, manifesting in the registration of almost 90,000 business entities, is not just filling a gap in the service sector. It is a real structural change. The dominant part of these companies are sole proprietorships in industries such as IT, construction, transport, or broadly defined customer service. According to data from the Polish Economic Institute from February 2025, the dynamics of company creation by Ukrainians exceeded market forecasts, which in practice means the emergence of a new middle class that regularly pays contributions to the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) and taxes to the state budget.

The contribution of 2.7 percent of GDP, shown in reports by Deloitte and Newseria BIZNES, is an amount calculated in the tens of billions of zlotys. This money allowed for the mitigation of the effects of the economic slowdown that Poland struggled with in the first half of 2025. The question analysts are asking themselves is: what will happen when the initial capital is consumed? We are currently observing a phase in which entrepreneurs from Ukraine are beginning to compete with domestic companies, which forces Polish entrepreneurs to improve the quality of services or change their operating model. This is a healthy market mechanism, although it can be painful for less efficient entities.

However, it must be remembered that this success has its cost. Importing labor and entrepreneurship is one thing, but maintaining this momentum requires regulatory stability. Entrepreneurs point to uncertainty regarding future residency rules, which is a brake on long-term investments. If the state does not provide a predictable legal environment, some of these 90,000 companies may simply move their operations to other European markets, which are bidding increasingly aggressively for qualified migrants. The balance of gains is currently positive, but without appropriate migration policy, this result could be squandered within the next few quarters.

Educational challenges and the pursuit of self-sufficiency

Economic successes contrast with the results of the Supreme Audit Office (NIK) audit from June 2026. The NIK report clearly indicates that the Polish education system has not shouldered the burden of full integration of Ukrainian refugee children. Schools, struggling with staffing shortages and overcrowded classrooms, have become a "bottleneck" that blocks the further stabilization of entire families. When parents have to devote time to homeschooling or helping their children catch up, their own productivity in the labor market drops drastically. This is a hidden cost that burdens local governments, not directly the central budget.

Since December 2025, the state has been actively pushing a strategy of refugee self-sufficiency. According to the assumptions of "Rzeczpospolita," the goal is to move away from the social support model toward full participation in the labor market. This is a logical transition, but in practice, it encounters resistance resulting from language barriers and the lack of recognition of professional qualifications in some sectors. The education system, instead of being a tool for integration, has become a field of conflict over resources. Local governments are forced to fund additional positions and psychological support, which for many municipalities means deficits in budgets for other local investments.

This is not a process that can be closed in one act. NIK audits confirm that without systemic expenditures on education, the current wave of integration may slow down. If refugee children do not find places in schools, their parents will more often consider returning to their country of origin or moving further west. Social stabilization is inextricably linked to access to public services. Without an efficient school, there is no permanent presence in the labor market, and without a labor market, there is no further GDP growth. These are connected vessels that the Polish administration has not yet learned to fully manage.

Social image of migration: Three years after the start of the war

Three years after the outbreak of the full-scale war, the social image of migration has undergone a profound change. Initial mobilization and aid enthusiasm have been replaced by the prose of everyday life. The OKO.press report from March 2025 points out this fatigue: refugees are no longer asking only "how to survive," but "how to live." Questions are emerging about the permanence of their presence in Poland in the context of a potential end to the conflict.

This uncertainty affects investment decisions. People who do not know if they will stay in Poland permanently are less likely to buy real estate and more likely to rent, which drives up apartment prices in the rental market. This is a phenomenon that affects everyone, regardless of their approach to migration policy. The European Parliament, in its data from September 2025, places Poland at the very forefront of countries with the greatest migration pressure, which forces us to be a leader in developing new standards for asylum and integration. We are no longer just a "transit country," we have become a destination country.

The state's expectations of refugees are clear: full adaptation, work, taxes. However, from the refugees themselves, voices are increasingly heard about the need to recognize their contribution to the Polish economy not just as "cheap labor," but as full-fledged partners. This tension between budgetary expectations and the social needs of migrants will be the main axis of internal policy in the coming years. Poland must decide whether it wants to build an inclusive society or merely a temporary workplace for hundreds of thousands of people.

The future of the presence of Ukrainians in the Polish labor market

The labor market in Poland has undergone an accelerated metamorphosis in recent years. The influx of workers has not only filled staffing gaps but has become a permanent element of the employment structure. An analysis by Newseria BIZNES from June 2025 indicates that without the participation of Ukrainian citizens, many branches of logistics and production would come to a standstill. This is no longer just a matter of short-term support, but a permanent change in the economic model, in which Poland relies on immigrants as a driver of growth.

Will this momentum be maintained? Much depends on the state's fiscal policy. If the burdens on small companies, where refugees dominate, increase, we will witness a wave of business closures. Conversely, if the labor market does not offer prospects for professional advancement, qualified workers will start looking for happiness in countries with higher net wages. The Polish economy is at a turning point. Instead of asking whether refugees "pay off," we should ask how to create conditions so that their potential is fully utilized in high-tech sectors, and not just in simple services.

Currently, the situation looks as follows: we have a large group of professionally active people who significantly support public finances. At the same time, we have deficiencies in social infrastructure that are beginning to be felt by all residents of the country. The economic gain is indisputable, but social challenges are beginning to put pressure on political stability. The coming years will show whether we can translate this capital into sustainable development, or whether we will allow unresolved educational and housing issues to undo years of hard work.

What this means for you

The migration balance in 2026 means for the average resident of Poland, above all, the stability of service prices and the availability of goods in stores, which is a direct effect of increased labor supply. However, you pay for this indirectly: through greater pressure on local schools, clinics, and public infrastructure that was not prepared for such a rapid population growth. The profit from taxes paid by 90,000 new companies is real money in the budget, but its distribution at the local level remains a source of tension. If you live in a large city, you feel this especially in queues to the doctor or in crowded public transport. On the other hand, without this influx, the cost of living would likely be higher due to staffing shortages that would have hit supply chains. This is an arrangement in which we are all participants, and its final result depends on whether the state finally starts investing in social infrastructure that will allow for conflict-free coexistence.

Questions and answers

Do Ukrainians in Poland only use social assistance?

No. Data for 2024 contradicts this thesis. Refugees generated 2.7 percent of GDP, which proves that they are active participants in the economy, not just beneficiaries of the care system.

How do Polish authorities approach the continued stay of refugees?

Since December 2025, the priority has been the self-sufficiency of migrants. The state places emphasis on ensuring that refugees become fully professionally and economically independent, thereby reducing budgetary expenditures on ad-hoc aid.

What are the main integration problems in 2026?

The key challenge is the inefficiency of the education system. NIK audits confirm that the lack of places in schools and systemic barriers hinder refugee children's learning, which in turn limits the professional activity of their parents.

Is the establishment of 90,000 companies by Ukrainians a lot?

It is a number that is changing the face of the SME sector in Poland. It means the creation of thousands of jobs and new taxpayers, which is a significant impulse for the economy, especially in the face of labor market deficits.